View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
When: Wednesday, December 28 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) vs. Mississippi Rebels (8-4)
Lubbock, Texas vs. Jackson, Mississippi, can we just call this the Bubba Bowl?
Vegas line/spread: Mississippi by 4 1/2 (over/under 71.5)
Ole Miss is a fairly slim favorite to win what is expected to be a high-scoring game. By game day the over was up 1 1/2 points since open but the line held steady until moving up a point on game day.
Strength power rating: #20 Mississippi 34, #26 Texas Tech 32
Best/Worst removed: Mississippi 34-31
Turnover corrected: Texas Tech 33-33
Ole Miss is a 2 point favorite straight up on Strength and by three points if we exclude each team's extreme games. Interestingly though if we remove the influence of turnovers Texas Tech improves quite a bit and it's essentially a tie, or an overtime win for the Raiders (it would be their 4th of the year). Tech QB's have thrown 17 picks this year so of course they'd like to remove that influence.
Interestingly our forecast doesn't call for too high scoring of a game, roughly 66 points compared to the over/under of around 70.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3.5 Spread |
| Mississippi | 56% | 46.5% |
| Texas Tech | 44% | 53.5% |
Ole Miss wins most of the game comparisons straight up, but falls short against the spread, which makes sense as our power rating projection is a 2 point win for the Rebels.
When Texas Tech has the ball
| Texas Tech scoring offense(adj): #21 |
Mississippi scoring defense(adj): #46 |
| Texas Tech rushing offense(raw): #67 |
Mississippi rushing defense(raw): #82 |
| Texas Tech passing offense(raw): #13 | Mississippi passing defense(raw): #57 |
Texas Tech's offense should score more than average on Mississippi's defense. Tech is a passing team and that's where their focus will lie. They have three QBs with over 1,000 yards each, an unusual situation certainly but it worked as they combined for 3,684 yards and 25 TDs. They also threw 17 interceptions which is a problem. Tech even has plays where all three are on the field at the same time, that's some kind of commitment to the QB position. But lately it's been Tyler Shough doing most of the work, and he led them to their last three wins throwing only 1 interception. QB Donovan Smith recently announced he's entering the transfer portal.
When Mississippi has the ball
| Mississippi scoring offense(adj): #19 |
Texas Tech scoring defense(adj): #47 |
| Mississippi rushing offense(raw): #3 |
Texas Tech rushing defense(raw): #90 |
| Mississippi passing offense(raw): #66 | Texas Tech passing defense(raw): #97 |
Ole Miss has almost the exact level of scoring offense as Texas Tech, who has almost the exact scoring defense as the Rebels. The difference is focus, as the Rebels want to run the ball a lot, and they have three players over 500 yards led by Quinshon Judkins with 1,476 yards. Texas Tech's rushing and passing defense are obviously not as bad as these raw figures indicate, but they'll have trouble stopping the run for sure.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Texas Tech: #77 Mississippi: #70
Nothing much to see here.
Texas Tech's season (7-5) • SOS: #12
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- Murray St 63-10
- Houston 33-30 2OT
- @#23 North Carolina St 14-27
- #20 Texas 37-34 OT
- @#9 Kansas St 28-37
- @Oklahoma St 31-41
- West Virginia 48-10
- Baylor 17-45
- @#3 TCU 24-34
- Kansas 43-28
- @Iowa St 14-10
- Oklahoma 51-48 OT
Texas Tech just barely made it to a bowl game. They really had no leeway at 4-5 plus three overtime games; assuming they split those that puts them at 5-6 with another 50/50 game. Instead though, they got lucky and won all three, beating Houston, Texas, and Oklahoma by a field goal each.
Tech's QB situation was in flux all year with three starters sometimes sharing the field. Donovan Smith started the first five games, then Behren Morton started until injured during the TCU game and Tyler Shough took over for the last three.
Mississippi's season (8-4) • SOS: #45
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- #24 Troy 28-10
- Central Arkansas 59-3
- @Georgia Tech 42-0
- Tulsa 35-27
- Kentucky 22-19
- @Vanderbilt 52-28
- Auburn 48-34
- @#17 LSU 20-45
- @Texas A&M 31-28
- #5 Alabama 24-30
- @Arkansas 27-42
- #22 Mississippi St 22-24
Despite playing the SEC Ole Miss didn't play a very tough schedule, with only six bowl teams on their slate. They played their best football early, beating #24 Troy solidly and crushing their next two foes 101-3. The Rebels were 7-0 but 4 of their next 5 opponents were bowl teams, and they lost to all four of them. That included a tight home loss to Alabama and another to rival Mississippi State at home.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
For Texas Tech co-starting QB Donovan Smith has entered the portal. He hasn't been starting since mid-season and they have two other starting QBs as well. QB Behren Mortons is questionable for the game, which would leave them with Tyler Shough, who has been starting lately. On defense the Raiders will be without starting D-back Reggie Pearson (#6 w/55 tackles).
Mississippi will be without corner Miles Battle and backup QB Luke Altmyer (125 yds, 2:1).
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Ole Miss is a slight favorite, will Texas Tech feel slighted? Probably not too much. Nor will the Rebels be overconfident.
- Location: Although it's the Texas Bowl so Texas Tech is playing in-state, Jackson, Mississippi is actually a few hours closer to Houston than Lubbock is, so this game resembles something more like the Texas-Oklahoma games in Dallas and should probably be considered a fully neutral field.
- Coaching: No change. But speculation about Lane Kiffin might have contributed to Ole Miss's poor play down the stretch.
- Motivation: The year ended pretty badly for Ole Miss, as their Playoff dreams then their SEC title dreams fell with the losses to LSU and Alabama and they finished with 3 losses, down from 10-2 last year. Texas Tech improved a bit from 6-6 and won their last three.
- Momentum: As mentioned just above, Ole Miss lost their last 3 and Texas Tech won their last three, including an overtime thriller over Oklahoma.
Clearly psychology seems to be on Texas Tech's side. They won their last three, the last one in overtime, and probably played their best and most consistent in that stretch. Mississippi lost a heartbreaker to Alabama, pissed away the Arkansas game, and couldn't even get motivated to beat rival Mississippi State on their own home field.
Final analysis
By comparing offensive and defensive strength these teams could hardly be more similar. Each has a top 25 offense and a barely top 50 defense, which should lead to plenty of scoring. The focus of the offenses is very different, though. The oddsmakers have Ole Miss as a fairly high favorite considering how close it seems on paper—probably because Mississippi plays in the SEC which gets lots of respect while the Big Twelve doesn't. There's the idea that an SEC team necessarily has played a tough schedule, but Texas Tech's schedule is a lot tougher than Mississippi's; they played 9 bowl teams to Ole Miss's 6, for example.
When teams are pretty close in Strength, we also have to look at psychology (and make some guesses there, let's face it). Texas Tech won their last three games while Ole Miss lost their last three. Just that alone raises some flags. And the Red Raiders have played very well recently compared to the Rebels.
Texas Tech had a big interception problem in 2022 but that might be solved with Tyler Shough at the helm. After throwing 16 picks in 9 games they have only 1 in the last three games. The INT rate went from 3.8% (16 in 424 attempt) to 1% (1 in 105).
Maybe Lane Kiffin can get the team motivated; maybe the fact that he didn't bolt for Auburn will help. It's a good sign that players aren't heading for the transfer portal (other than a few non-starters). So I don't think Mississippi's situation will be dire. They just haven't played their best lately and that may carry into the bowl game.
I still think it will be a close game, but with the Raiders on the winning side. Maybe in regulation, or possibly in the Raiders' 4th overtime game.
Prediction: Texas Tech 34, Mississippi 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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