View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX
When: Friday, December 30 at 2:00 pm ET
TV: CBS
#18 UCLA Bruins (9-3) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4)
It's the Bruins vs. the Panthers, oh my!
Vegas line/spread: UCLA by 9 (over/under 54.5)
UCLA opened as the standard near-touchdown favorite. The odds held steady for a while but by game day it had moved up by 3 points, with the o/u down 3 points.
Strength power rating: #31 UCLA 35, #43 Pittsburgh 32
Best/Worst removed: UCLA 35-33
Turnover corrected: UCLA 34-33
Our power rating's spread is a bit tighter at 3 points, and it decreases either to 2 points (when excluding extreme game outcomes) or to just 1 if we correct for turnovers.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6 Spread |
| UCLA | 55.6% | 41% |
| Pitt | 44.4% | 59% |
UCLA wins most comparison straight up but Pitt wins a larger majority vs. the initial spread.
When UCLA has the ball
| UCLA scoring offense(adj): #14 |
Pitt scoring defense(adj): #36 |
| UCLA rushing offense(raw): #4 |
Pitt rushing defense(raw): #7 |
| UCLA passing offense(raw): #39 | Pitt passing defense(raw): #67 |
UCLA has a great offense and a poor defense; on this side of the ball they should do well, though Pitt's D is no slouch. The Bruins love the running game behind dynamic RB Zach Charbonnet who has 1,359 yards and 14 TDs. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson adds 631 yards on the ground to go with his nearly 3,000 passing yards. Pitt's rushing defense is great—at least in raw numbers (uncorrected for opponents) and since they play an average schedule comparable to UCLA's we can probably say there's a great contest here between the offense and defense on the ground. Pitt will be missing a starting DT who has opted out.
When Pitt has the ball
| Pitt scoring offense(adj): #40 |
UCLA scoring defense(adj): #71 |
| Pitt rushing offense(raw): #44 |
UCLA rushing defense(raw): #30 |
| Pitt passing offense(raw): #81 | UCLA passing defense(raw): #120 |
Pitt's offense can't compete with UCLA's but they don't have to; they only have to able to beat UCLA's defense and that shouldn't be too hard as the Bruins are below-average for all of the FBS on defense. Their raw rush defense numbers aren't bad and that's Pitt's stronger area, but they're bad against the pass. Pitt's top RB Israel Abanikanda has 1,431 yards and a whopping 20 TDs, setting up a great running back battle (update: until Abanikanda opted out; 2nd leading rusher Rodney Hammond Jr has just 366 yards and a 4.4 per-carry average to Abanikanda's 6.0 ypc).
And that may be pretty much what Pitt will have to offer on offense as QB Kedon Slovis has entered the transfer portal. Nick Patti (9 of 20 for 79 yards, 1 TD this year) replaced Kenny Pickett last year and broke his collar bone in the game. No word on who the starter will officially be yet (update: it's Patti again), but he will have a go-to receiver in Jared Wayne (1,012 yards) and UCLA's defense is a good one to be up against in this situation.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): UCLA: #110 Pitt: #92
Neither is very good overall in the special teams areas per ESPN's FPI.
UCLA's season (9-3) • SOS: #58
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-2
- Bowling Green 45-17
- Alabama St 45-7
- South Alabama 32-31
- @Colorado 45-17
- #12 Washington 40-32
- #8 Utah 42-32
- @#15 Oregon 30-45
- Stanford 38-13
- @Arizona St 50-36
- Arizona 28-34
- #10 Southern Cal 45-48
- @California 35-28
UCLA started a bit slow and by the time they edged South Alabama 32-31 at home most had written them off. But the Jaguars finished 10-2 so that was a solid win, and the Bruins were soon 6-0 with wins over 10-2 Washington and Pac-12 champ Utah, while playing better than ever. Oregon swamped them, but they controlled their own destiny to the Pac-12 title and beyond until they lost at home to Arizona. Maybe they were looking ahead to the USC game? They lost that too in a shootout heartbreaker. After that debacle they barely had the energy to beat Cal, but in many ways its impressive they got that road win.
Pitt's season (8-4) • SOS: #62
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- West Virginia 38-31
- #6 Tennessee 27-34 OT
- @Western Michigan 34-13
- Rhode Island 45-24
- Georgia Tech 21-26
- Virginia Tech 45-29
- @Louisville 10-24
- @North Carolina 24-42
- Syracuse 19-9
- @Virginia 37-7
- Duke 28-26
- @Miami FL 42-16
Pitt only played one bowl-bound team in their first six games but it was a big one, and the Panthers almost knocked off #6 Tennessee before the Vols could even establish themselves as a Playoff threat. The Panthers played dismal football after that, falling to Georgia Tech and losing to Louisville and North Carolina to sit at 4-4 on the year. Their last four games are pretty solid all around, however—two wins over bowl teams and two road wins by 30 and 26 points.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Pitt QB Kedon Slovis has entered the transfer portal, and Pitt starting defensive tackle Calijah Kancey has opted out of the game. Update: Pitt's #1 RB Israel Abanikanda (1,431 yards, 20 TDs) has opted out, as has starting d-back Brandon Hill.
Still no opt-outs from UCLA.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: UCLA is probably favored by about what the teams expected, I would say. And it moved up as Pitt players dropped out, as it should.
- Location: We didn't give any HFA consideration in our power rating numbers, but UCLA has a much shorter distance to travel to El Paso, and just one time zone instead of two.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Pitt's season was a bit of a downer compared to last year anyway, going from 11 wins and an ACC title to 8 and never being much in the conversation. For UCLA they went 9-3 after last year's 8-4, but their bowl game was cancelled so this will be their first bowl since 2017, a pretty big deal.
- Momentum: Pitt might actually have some momentum going into the bowl game after winning their last four in pretty convincing fashion. Meanwhile UCLA lost two of their last three games including the heartbreaking USC home loss.
Pitt's in a rough spot without their QB for the 2nd straight year, which can't be good for team morale. Their end-of-season momentum might have just been nipped in the bud by that announcement, along with the other opt-outs, but maybe the rest of the team can rally.
Meanwhile almost no one on UCLA's team has been to a bowl even though they qualified last year. Hopefully for them that sinks in and overcomes their poor finish.
Final analysis
The low ranking of UCLA in power ratings may surprise some people, and it makes for a close game—closer than the spread. But then you start to add in the missing Panther players, including—for the 2nd straight year—their starting QB. And you have to expand the margin until it ends up somewhere around the spread after all.
Losing Kedon Slovis won't have anywhere near the impact of losing Kenny Pickett, who led a pass-first offense with over 4,000 yards and a ridiculous 42:7 ratio. Slovis's numbers pale in comparison: 2,397 yards, 10 TDs, 9 interceptions. So there won't be the near two-touchdown decrease in scoring we saw last year. But it's not good. And more than anything it takes away their offensive leader, and probably reflects an attitude that the players don't care much about the bowl game.
In terms of enthusiasm, there are two things working against each other. Under normal circumstances Pitt would have the wind at its back after 4 straight wins, ready to throttle a UCLA team that stumbled to the finish line. But in the time between the regular season and the bowl game, the focus will probably shift. For UCLA it will be playing in their first bowl game since 2017—so forget how the season ended. And for Pitt, they'll wonder if can keep their late-season momentum alive without Slovis. They can, but his departure may be a symptom of deeper malaise.
Any and all of this could change if some of UCLA's key players decide to opt out, like Charbonnet or Thompson-Robinson (as a Final Update, Charbonnet didn't play but that wasn't known until kickoff basically). Until then, we see a close UCLA win. Pitt was playing really well at the end and some of that has to carry over—now that they've got experience playing without their starting QB. And their defense is still going to be solid, even if they can't quite hold UCLA back. Update: Pitt's offense is further hurt by their top RB opting out, and the D by another d-back too. This increases the odds of a UCLA blowout win quite a bit, but we'll stick with our original assessment as the blowouts seem to not be manifesting this bowl season.
Prediction: UCLA 34, Pitt 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
Comments