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Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA
When: Saturday, December 31 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN
#5 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) vs. #9 Kansas State Wildcats (10-3)
A great matchup befitting the Sugar Bowl.
Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 7 1/2 (over/under 58)
Alabama is a solid favorite, up from a field goal initially to a just over a touchdown on game day. The o/u is up a total of 4 points.
Strength power rating: #4 Alabama 28, #7 Kansas St 24
Best/Worst removed: Alabama 29-23
Turnover corrected: Alabama 31-21
For the full season Alabama is more than 4 points better than Kansas State; this increases to 6 if we remove each team's outliers—since K-State has a huge upside outlier that disappears. If we correct for turnovers this also hurts K-State who has benefitted greatly from turnovers (and hopes this continues). In the latter case Alabama is a 10 point favorite.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3 Spread |
| Alabama | 64.1% | 55.8% |
| Kansas St | 35.9% | 44.2% |
Pretty straightforward—Alabama wins most of the game "trials" based on this season's game ratings, and covers the majority of the time against the spread.
When Alabama has the ball
| Alabama scoring offense(adj): #4 |
Kansas St scoring defense(adj): #7 |
| Alabama rushing offense(raw): #29 |
Kansas St rushing defense(raw): #63 |
| Alabama passing offense(raw): #23 | Kansas St passing defense(raw): #56 |
The top line numbers are very representative of Alabama's offense and K-State's defense. It's a battle of top tens. The rest of the figures, for rushing/passing offense/defense, are raw numbers skewed because these teams play very tough opponents. Alabama's rushing offense, for example, is #6 per play, which is a better estimate of how good it is. And K-State's pass defense is #23 per-play. The other two numbers (Bama pass offense and K-State rush defense) might be closer to the truth. But only the scoring offense and scoring defense numbers are properly adjusted for opponents.
That said, Alabama's offense centers on Bryce Young (3,007 yards, 27 TDs, 5 int) and is balanced by a solid ground game.
When Kansas St has the ball
| Kansas St scoring offense(adj): #12 |
Alabama scoring defense(adj): #2 |
| Kansas St rushing offense(raw): #17 |
Alabama rushing defense(raw): #31 |
| Kansas St passing offense(raw): #93 | Alabama passing defense(raw): #16 |
Unlike many programs with missing QBs this bowl season, Kansas State has a problem of Too Many Quarterbacks as starter Adrian Martinez (1,261 yds, 6:1) is back from injury while Will Howard (1,423, 15:2) has been playing very well lately. Martinez adds a running dimension (615 yards, 10 TDs) that they could really use against the Tide. The ground game in general is the Wildcats' focus, led by Deuce Vaughn's 1,425 yards. Of course Alabama's defense is killer as always, and the rush/pass raw numbers don't do it justice, rather the #2 scoring defense ranking should tell the story.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Alabama: #21 Kansas St: #30
Strong teams often have strong special teams, but not always. In this case it's true for both squads.
Alabama's season (10-2) • SOS: #26
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-2
- Utah St 55-0
- @#20 Texas 20-19
- Louisiana-Monroe 63-7
- Vanderbilt 55-3
- @Arkansas 49-26
- Texas A&M 24-20
- @#6 Tennessee 49-52
- #22 Mississippi St 30-6
- @#17 LSU 31-32 OT
- @Mississippi 30-24
- Austin Peay 34-0
- Auburn 49-27
Alabama started strong and it looked like another championship season for the Tide. The Texas A&M home game was kind of a surprise and looks really bad now—in retrospect it was a big clue the Tide weren't a #1-caliber team if the 1-point win at Texas hadn't already hinted it (though in retrospect that looks ok). The Tennessee loss was a hit but it didn't sink them; they still controlled their destiny to the Playoff. Hence the 30-6 rebound win over Mississippi State. But the 2nd loss, to LSU, took the wind out of their sails and they almost lost to Mississippi the next week. The offense sleepwalked through Austin Peay, and though they were able to get psyched to beat Auburn soundly, that was no big deal to anyone but themselves. It's almost like that was more important than any non-Playoff bowl game could be.
Alabama's two losses were by 4 points total and both on the road to ranked teams. But they easily could have lost two more games and been 8-4, so claiming an "almost undefeated" season isn't very representative of their experience. Looking at their chart they definitely played best in the first half of the season, and much lower after their 2nd loss burst their Playoff bubble.
Kansas St's season (10-3) • SOS: #2
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 7-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- South Dakota 34-0
- Missouri 40-12
- #16 Tulane 10-17
- @Oklahoma 41-34
- Texas Tech 37-28
- @Iowa St 10-9
- @#3 TCU 28-38
- Oklahoma St 48-0
- #20 Texas 27-34
- @Baylor 31-3
- @West Virginia 48-31
- Kansas 47-27
- @#3 TCU 31-28 OT
Kansas State was a a wildcard coming into 2022, no one could be sure how good they'd be. They shut out South Dakota, then crushed Missouri and after two games it looked like they had real potential. But they got big-headed fast and lost to Tulane 17-10 at home, a loss that looked really bad at the time and now looks reasonable (except the home part). They shocked Oklahoma the next week, a win that looks obvious now as the Sooners finished 6-6. It appeared that K-State was an up and down team to have those wins and losses, but really they were revealing how good (or bad) other teams really were.
The Wildcats played TCU tough on the road but fell by 10 points, then turned around and destroyed Oklahoma State 48-0 in one of the best performances of the year for any team. Then they lost to Texas at home. This did nothing to fix their "up and down" reputation. Neither did beating Baylor 31-3. But the team finally achieved an even keel over their last three games, and at a very high level, with QB Will Howard starting for the injured Adrian Martinez, beating West Virginia, Kansas, and even TCU in the rematch. He also started the OK State game and took over in the Baylor win, but didn't play in the Texas loss. No wonder people are thinking he should start the bowl game, even as Martinez adds another dimension.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Alabama is losing at least a dozen players to the transfer portal, but almost all of them are deep 2nd or 3rd stringers. Exceptions are #4 WR Traeshon Holden (331 yards, 6 TDs) and starting offensive lineman Javion Cohen. Including backups, five offensive linemen will be gone, which could make substitutions an issue.
No players are listed as opting out or in the portal for K-State, and QB Adrian Martinez appears to be healthy to play, but leading receiver Malik Knowles is still listed as questionable. K-State has said he will play too, however.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Alabama probably feels like they deserve to be a bigger favorite (than the original 3 points), but Kansas State is good. Now that the line has gone up so much, it might be more motivation for K-State to rally as underdogs.
- Location: The Sugar Bowl is sort of Alabama's home away from home but we don't give any points for that
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: The opt-out issue was a mixed bag for Alabama. On the plus side, all the major players are staying and playing in the bowl. On the other hand, a dozen players (mostly reserves) are entering the transfer portal. That's more an issue with the program not the bowl per se but if the team were really fired up about the game they'd by playing. Any year Alabama doesn't make the Playoff is a bad year, so this year is even worse than last year (which was a bad year because they didn't win a national title). K-State's expectations are much lower so getting to a New Year's Eve Bowl is a big deal after a 7-5 season, and they haven't been to a bowl this big in a decade. They'll definitely be more motivated, even if Alabama isn't exactly sulking.
- Momentum: Both teams won their last 3 at the end of the season. Kansas State beat TCU for a conference title, something Alabama doesn't have. The end of the season was a bit anti-climactic for the Tide as they watched themselves finish just outside the Playoff group.
Kansas State should be up for the game like crazy, playing Alabama. The only motivation Alabama will really feel is if they think they should be favored by a lot more, and want to prove they deserved to be in the Playoff.
Final analysis
Kansas State has a rare problem—two very good quarterbacks. Many teams this bowl season as losing their only good QB to opting out or transferring. K-State can really use this to their advantage as each has different skills. Managing this correctly might be the key to beating Alabama.
The Tide of course have their QB and he's very good, in fact the whole offense is. And they've managed to avoid the transfer portal for their key players, which is remarkable. But deeper in the lineup there's not a lot of enthusiasm for sticking around for the bowl game as 12 players have opted for the portal. That might be the way things are going to be from now on.
Alabama has had worse years of being unmotivated in the post-season, especially in the BCS years when they'd finish outside the top two and underperform in a bowl. Examples are 2008, where an undefeated Alabama was bumped from the BCS title game by Florida then lost to Utah 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl. Or 2013, also undefeated but then knocked off by Auburn (the "kick six"), and losing 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. In the Playoff era they've only missed the Playoff once: at 10-2 in 2019 they played 9-3 Michigan and won 35-16. So it isn't always true that being bounced from national title competition makes Alabama underperform.
But I like K-State here, not just for being motivated but, for right at the moment, actually being the better team. Early in the season I think Alabama would have beaten them soundly; now, I think they beat the Tide by wearing them down over the course of 4 quarters, as their depth proves to be greater.
Prediction: Kansas State 30, Alabama 24
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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