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Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA
When: Monday, January 2 at 5:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#8 Utah Utes (10-3) vs. #11 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
A great Rose Bowl, even if they only got the Big Ten's third best team.
Vegas line/spread: Penn State by 1 (over/under 53.5)
Utah was a slim favorite right up until kickoff. The line was down from Utah - 2 1/2 to just a point the day before kickoff, with the over up 1.5 points. By kickoff Penn State was a 1-point favorite.
Strength power rating: #9 Penn State 29 #10 Utah 28
Best/Worst removed: Penn State 29-28
Turnover corrected: Utah 29-28
These teams rank so close in our Strength power rating that the result can best be considered a double overtime game. Penn State actually ranks a notch higher at #9 to Utah's #10 but it's very tight.
If we remove each team's outliers, Penn State still wins and maybe it's only a 1-overtime game. However if we attempt to correct for the effect of mostly-random turnovers, Utah is now the overtime winner. In every case neither team "wins" by even 1/2 a point.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2.5 Spread |
| Utah | 52.6% | 41% |
| Penn State | 47.4% | 59% |
Although Penn State is the favorite in Strength (by about 0.2 points) when comparing their game results against each other the Utes win the majority. So in this way you could say our power rating favors Utah; if the teams played 156 times the Utes would win 82 and lose 74, but the average of those games is a Penn State win by 0.2 points.
Against the small spread things change pretty dramatically and Penn State wins almost 3 of 5 times.
When Utah has the ball
| Utah scoring offense(adj): #15 |
Penn State scoring defense(adj): #11 |
| Utah rushing offense(raw): #10 |
Penn State rushing defense(raw): #14 |
| Utah passing offense(raw): #48 | Penn State passing defense(raw): #49 |
Everything's pretty close here, down to the rushing and passing figures, which are raw values, uncorrected for opposition, but they've played about the same level of schedule. Utah can score and Penn State can defend, both in the top 25. Looks like a very even matchup when Utah has the ball.
QB Cameron Rising (2,939 yds, 25:7, 409 rushing) is a dual threat leader of Utah's offense; he averages 6.0 yards per carry even after subtracting 62 sack yards (his NFL average would be 6.9 yards per carry). Three running backs share the workload and five receivers top 300 yards, but Utah's leading rusher, Tavion Thomas (687 yards) is opting out, as is their leading receiver, TE Dalton Kincaid (890 yards).
When Penn State has the ball
| Penn State scoring offense(adj): #11 |
Utah scoring defense(adj): #12 |
| Penn State rushing offense(raw): #43 |
Utah rushing defense(raw): #16 |
| Penn State passing offense(raw): #51 | Utah passing defense(raw): #25 |
Another dead even matchup when values are adjusted. Penn State's rushing and passing figures are better than they lookbecause Penn State faces tough defenses in the Big Ten. But Utah's numbers might underestimate their defense too since they play against great offenses in the Pac-12.
Fifth-year senior Sean Clifford (2,543 yards, 22:7) leads the Lion offense and two backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, have over 800 rushing yards each. Clifford isn't quite the dual threat Rising is but he can run; he has 177 net rushing yards on the year (+87 sack yards). His top target Parker Washington (611 yards) is opting out, but he has several others to choose from, and Utah is missing star corner Clark Phillips.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Utah: #54 Penn State: #56
As if everything else weren't close enough, these teams are dead even in special teams.
Utah's season (11-2) • SOS: #41
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 3-2
- @Florida 26-29
- Southern Utah 73-7
- San Diego St 35-7
- @Arizona St 34-13
- #14 Oregon St 42-16
- @#18 UCLA 32-42
- #10 Southern Cal 43-42
- @Washington St 21-17
- Arizona 45-20
- Stanford 42-7
- @#15 Oregon 17-20
- @Colorado 63-21
- =#10 Southern Cal 47-24
Utah looked like a possible 13-0 team from my vantage point at the beginning of the season but hit a bump right away, losing at Florida 29-26. The Utes blasted Southern Utah for 73 points to vent their frustrations, and looked unstoppable for several games before UCLA outran them 42-32. They had another track meet with USC but won that one 43-42 at home, and three more wins put them in the Pac-12 driver's seat—until they lost at Oregon. The Ducks lost to Oregon State which put the Utes in a rematch with USC, which they were losing badly until they started winning after which it became a rout.
Utah has a pretty impressive 3-2 record against Top 25 teams, with two of those being USC of course.
Penn State's season (10-2) • SOS: #38
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @Purdue 35-31
- Ohio U. 46-10
- @Auburn 41-12
- Central Michigan 33-14
- Northwestern 17-7
- @#2 Michigan 17-41
- Minnesota 45-17
- #4 Ohio State 31-44
- @Indiana 45-14
- Maryland 30-0
- @Rutgers 55-10
- Michigan St 35-16
Penn State won their first three games pretty impressively, beating Purdue on the road, bowl team Ohio 46-10, and Auburn 41-12 (only Georgia beat Auburn that easily).
But the next three games seemed to take Penn State out of any title talk. Unimpressive wins over Central Michigan and Northwestern led to a 41-17 loss at Michigan, and while they rebounded against Minnesota the Ohio State loss left them no room to win the East division. They soldiered on with no one really paying attention, beating bowl team Maryland 30-0 and three other losing teams by a total of 135-40. Alabama's claim to fame (and their argument for being in the Playoff) was their close losses to top teams, but Penn State lost to an undefeated team and a 1-loss. If Michigan and Ohio State were to make it to the championship game, Penn State has a very real argument for being #3 in the nation—as long as they can beat Utah.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Utah's top receiver, Dalton Kincaid, and leading rusher Tavion Thomas are both opting out. CB Clark Phillips, who has 6 interceptions this season, is also opting out.
For Penn State #1 receiver Parker Washington is opting out as is starting CB Joey Porter.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Utah is a slight favorite; Penn State might not agree
- Location: Both teams are pretty far away from Pasadena but while Salt Lake City is 11 hours and 1 time zone away, College Station is 40 hours and 3 time zones away. Would definitely be some points to Utah back in the days of train travel.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Both teams are probably pretty happy to be in the Rose Bowl. Utah had to beat USC to get here, and Penn State needed...Utah to knock USC out of the Playoff, moving Ohio State up from the Rose Bowl and putting Penn State in. So both teams owe their Rose Bowl trip to Utah.
- Momentum: Utah certainly has some, while Penn State finished strong too.
Not a big edge here either way as far as I can tell. Utah's coming off a big win and Penn State won four in a row at the end. One difference might be last year's experience. Utah went to the Rose Bowl last year while Penn State was in the Outback bowl at 7-5. That won't diminish Utah's experience—they want a Rose Bowl win after last year's heartbreak—but it adds a bit for Penn State.
Final analysis
This game is pretty even and I'm surprised the line is more than one point either direction. It's probably because Utah has some big wins and Penn State doesn't—though the Lions didn't have a chance other than Michigan and Ohio State, and no one else who had a chance to beat those teams did. The games were pretty lopsided at the end but Penn State was leading in the 3rd quarter against Michigan and leading in the 4th quarter against Ohio State.
Utah also has bigger losses to opt-outs—their leading rusher and leading receiver. The Utes have plenty of others in those positions but in a close game it could definitely be the difference.
It's curious that Utah's win over USC in the Pac-12 title game sent both Utah and Penn State to the Rose Bowl. Neither team has a lot of weaknesses, they're full of strengths, and both are led by a veteran quarterback that knows how to win. Last year's Rose Bowl was one of the best bowl games and I think this one will live up to it. I'm sticking with the pick for an overtime game, with Penn State the underdog winner getting their first big win on the last day of their season, and hand Utah another Rose Bowl heartbreak.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Utah 28 OT
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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