View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, FL
When: Monday, January 2 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN
Illinois Fighting Illini (8-4) vs. #22 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4)
A fairly typical bowl game that became something completely different with the unexpected death of Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach.
Vegas line/spread: Mississippi State by 4 (over/under 46)
Mississippi State is now a 4 point favorite before kickoff. The line opened for Mississippi State by 1 but moved toward Illinois days before Leach's hospitalization was reported. It held pretty steady following the news but moved back to Mississippi State steadily in the last few weeks.
Strength power rating: #15 Illinois 23, #18 Mississippi St 22
Best/Worst removed: Illinois 23-22
Turnover corrected: Mississippi State 23-22
Illinois isn't ranked by the Committee but in Strength they're #15 in the nation, slightly in front of the Bulldogs. Illinois feasts on turnover margin and if this is factored out Mississippi State becomes the slim favorite.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2 Spread |
| Illinois | 50% | 48.6% |
| Miss St | 50% | 51.4% |
Despite Illinois winning the average game by just over a point, the game-comparison system calls it a 50/50 draw when comparing performances against each other. Naturally that makes Mississippi State the slight favorite against the spread.
When Illinois has the ball
| Illinois scoring offense(adj): #49 |
Miss St scoring defense(adj): #30 |
| Illinois rushing offense(raw): #48 |
Miss St rushing defense(raw): #55 |
| Illinois passing offense(raw): #97 | Miss St passing defense(raw): #36 |
Illinois doesn't have a great offense, nor does Mississippi State have a great defense, but neither is bad. Illinois will have some issues moving the ball consistently. The ground game is the Illini's forte, with RB Chase Brown (1,643 yards, 10 TDs) one of the best in the nation. Mississippi State's unadjusted rush defense looks mediocre but they play a tough schedule so it's a bit misleading.
Update: With Chase Brown opting out, the Illini's next option is Reggie Love III who has 277 yards on the season, and a 4.7 average to Brown's 5.0 ypc.
When Mississippi State has the ball
| Miss St scoring offense(adj): #22 |
Illinois scoring defense(adj): #5 |
| Miss St rushing offense(raw): #130 |
Illinois rushing defense(raw): #8 |
| Miss St passing offense(raw): #11 | Illinois passing defense(raw): #6 |
Contrasting Illinois, Mississippi State doesn't run the ball much at all. That's a sign of a Mike Leach team. Instead they run the Air Raid (Leach coined the term), with Will Rogers racking up 3,713 yards, 34 TDs and 6 interceptions. He spreads the ball around well, with 9 players above 250 receiving yards. They're going up against one of the nation's best offenses, though; the Illini are solid in all areas. These offense/defense matchups make it clear why the oddsmakers and our power ratings forecast such a low scoring game.
Two key offensive players will be out, however (transfer portal). One is the team's leading receiver, Rara Thomas, but as I noted they have lots of targets so it won't stop the Air Raid, just make the long ball a bit harder as he led the team with 14.2 yards per catch. The other is the team's #2 rusher, but they don't run the ball anyway. Illinois is missing their best d-back, Sydney Brown, who has 6 interceptions, taking away a big worry for the Bulldogs in the secondary.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Illinois: #87 Mississippi St: #12
Special teams play favors the Bulldogs, often a consideration in a close contest.
Illinois's season (8-4) • SOS: #51
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- Wyoming 38-6
- @Indiana 20-23
- Virginia 24-3
- Chattanooga 31-0
- @Wisconsin 34-10
- Iowa 9-6
- Minnesota 26-14
- @Nebraska 26-9
- Michigan St 15-23
- Purdue 24-31
- @#2 Michigan 17-19
- @Northwestern 41-3
Illinois looked promising after week one, but following the loss to Indiana many wrote them off (and by "many", I mean *I* did). But the Illini persevered and racked up several wins, beating Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota in a row as part of a 6-game win streak. Just when we started to count on Illinois as a good team they went and lost to Michigan State at home, then to Purdue, and by the time they played Michigan they were counted out before the game started but almost managed to beat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Their last game, a trouncing of Northwestern, probably reflects the Wildcats 1-11 season more than a statement by the Illini.
MSU's season (8-4) • SOS: #19
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-3
- Memphis 49-23
- @Arizona 39-17
- @#17 LSU 16-31
- Bowling Green 45-14
- Texas A&M 42-24
- Arkansas 40-17
- @Kentucky 17-27
- @#5 Alabama 6-30
- Auburn 39-33 OT
- #1 Georgia 19-45
- East Tennessee St 56-7
- @Mississippi 24-22
Mississippi State's teams under Mike Leach have tended to be unpredictable, but this season played out pretty much as expected once it was established that the Bulldogs would A) trounce bad teams like Arizona and Texas A&M, B) lose to ranked teams like LSU, and C) beat the majority of unranked bowl-bound teams like Memphis, Bowling Green, and Arkansas. The only exception to these rules was the loss at Kentucky. Or, if you modify the rule: they beat bowl teams at home but lose on the road, then the only exception is the season-ending win over Ole Miss. They also struggled a bit too much with Auburn, their sole win in a 4-game slump that shook them out of any big time daydreams. They pulled out of that and finished strong, especially with the Egg Bowl win.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Rara Thomas, Mississippi State's #1 receiver with 626 yards, has entered the transfer portal, as has Dillon Johnson, #2 rusher with 488 yards.
For Illinois, leading rusher Chase Brown (1,643 yards) has opted out, as has starting corner Sydney Brown (6 interceptions).
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Illinois became the favorite once the betting public got a hold of the line, but now it's moved back to Mississippi State.
- Location: Pretty neutral, though about twice as far for Illini fans to travel
- Coaching: This is the big one. We're trying to see if there was ever a case of this happening before, or whether to just treat it like a coach retiring. It's a big mystery how the death of Mike Leach will affect the game.
- Motivation: See above. Any questions about Mississippi State have a new focus. As for Illinois, they have to stay focused themselves as they were probably the more motivated team since they missed a bowl the last two years. It's already their best season since 2007.
- Momentum: Both teams lost momentum late in the year but recovered with season-ending wins.
Nothing really matters here except Mike Leach's untimely demise. DC Zach Arnett will coach the team during the bowl game.
Final analysis
As we mentioned in the offense section, Mississippi State loses their #1 receiver and #2 rusher to the dreaded transfer portal. It's not a good thing but we note how many targets Will Rogers has, and the fact that the running game isn't essential for them to have success. Still not ideal. And Illinois losing their key running back and a very dangerous defensive back (6 int) might shift the favorite to Mississippi State in any case.
But the only absence we need to talk about is Mike Leach. This is a fairly unprecedented situation, as far as I know there aren't any major college football programs that have had a coach die during the season at any point. My only guess is that since the players wanted to play the game (the school announced they'd play, I'm just assuming they asked the players first) that it will be most like the situation when a coach retires. In those cases players have responded well to send the coach out with a win, and this would be the ultimate way of doing so. Players have done the same for players who have died during the season.
This would have been a tough game to pick just a few days ago but now I'm not sure overthinking it makes sense; it seems the players will be motivated, though it's entirely possible they'll be more shellshocked and lethargic. I guess we'll find out what happens in this kind of situation.
Prediction: Mississippi State 21, Illinois 15
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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