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Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI
When: Monday, December 26 at 2:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (6-6)
Another killer 6-6 matchup, but this one has an interesting twist at least.
Vegas line/spread: Bowling Green by 3 1/2 (over/under 48.5)
Bowling Green is a small favorite, about a field goal in early lines, up from 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 which held on game day. The game is seen as low-scoring by the oddsmakers, up slightly from 48.
Strength power rating: #152 Bowling Green 27, #149 New Mexico St 26
Best/Worst removed: Bowling Green 28-24
Turnover corrected: New Mexico St 27-26
Note that the rankings for the Strength power rating here are for every division—768 teams—so that's why both teams are lower than #131 here. It means that several (around 20) FCS teams rank higher than them. Yikes!
But what we are worried about is the comparison between the two, and here New Mexico State has a very slight edge in ranking but is a 1-point underdog after we apply partial home field advantage. Bowling Green isn't at home, nor are they even playing in-state so normally there would be no consideration. But the Falcons are about an hour from Detroit while it's a 24 hour+ drive from Las Cruces! That's worth something, and it tips what is essentially a tie to a Bowling Green advantage.
If we throw out both teams' extreme results, the Falcons become a 4 point favorite. This is because, as we'll see, New Mexico State has a monster game result that is pretty important in our consideration, and here's it's gone.
But if we correct for the effect of turnovers for each team, New Mexico State is the favorite even when spotting Bowling Green partial HFA. The Aggies have had bad luck with turnovers and if that doesn't happen they are the favorite.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2.5 Spread |
| Bowling Green | 56% | 51.4% |
| New Mexico St | 44% | 48.6% |
Again, we're giving some home field consideration to Bowling Green here and they win 56% of the direct comparison and still 51% vs. a 2 1/2 point spread. Without any home field it's 48.6%.
When New Mexico St has the ball
| NM State scoring offense(adj): #119 |
Bowling Green scoring defense(adj): #113 |
| NM State rushing offense(raw): #65 |
Bowling Green rushing defense(raw): #86 |
| NM State passing offense(raw): #120 | Bowling Green passing defense(raw): #102 |
Ugh, this looks horrific does it not? Two bottom 25 platoons facing off. On running plays at least the Aggies gain some yardage and the Falcons can muster a stop or two. Starting QB Diego Pavia is entering the transfer portal, so New Mexico State's #120 passing game might be compromised. We kid, this is actually a big deal as we'll see later on. Update: He's still in the portal as far as we know but he's playing in the bowl game.
When Bowling Green has the ball
| Bowling Green scoring offense(adj): #111 |
NM State scoring defense(adj): #118 |
| Bowling Green rushing offense(raw): #121 |
NM State rushing defense(raw): #74 |
| Bowling Green passing offense(raw): #58 | NM State passing defense(raw): #13 |
Things aren't any better over here, still in triple digits in what counts—the scoring offense and scoring defense numbers, which are adjusted for opposition and therefore reflect reality. The raw rushing/passing numbers don't reflect reality and should be used carefully. For example, New Mexico State doesn't have the 13th best pass defense—nobody needs to pass on them because they can just run the ball. Except for maybe Bowling Green who can't run the ball for shit.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): New Mexico St: #93 Bowling Green: #33
If it comes down to special teams then Bowling Green is the better bet.
New Mexico St's season (6-6) • SOS: #87
Non-conf losses: NA • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- Nevada 12-23
- @Minnesota 0-38
- @UTEP 13-20
- @Wisconsin 7-66
- Hawai`i 45-26
- Florida Int'l 7-21
- New Mexico 21-9
- @Massachusetts 23-13
- Lamar 51-14
- @Missouri 14-45
- @Liberty 49-14
- Valparaiso 65-3
The first impressive thing about New Mexico State here is their #87 SOS, remarkable for a team that played two FCS teams. But as an independent they scheduled three Power Five opponents (all road, all losses, by a combined 149-21) as well as Liberty. The Aggies were 1-5 at mid-season, pretty much as expected, though the 66-7 loss to Wisconsin and also the loss to Florida International were hard to swallow. But they beat Hawaii and that set them up for a comeback for the ages, a 5-1 bowl run that was almost derailed by a cancelled game, and ended with two of the biggest wins ever for a bottom-10 dweller in history.
The Liberty game alone was amazing as the Aggies came in 24 point underdogs and proceeded to win by 35, a 59-point swing that is one of the biggest such swings of all time from an underdog (2014 Ohio State +4 wins 59-0 over Wisconsin is the biggest?). It didn't end there, though, as the Aggies struggled to find an opponent so they could have their final home game, while appealing to the Bowl Gods to give them an exemption to needing 5 FBS wins. The got Valpo and destroyed them 65-3, which is unreal for how they were playing early in the year...Valpo might have beat them.
So there you have it, one of the weirdest performance charts you'll ever see in college football.
Bowling Green's season (6-6) • SOS: #98
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @#18 UCLA 17-45
- Eastern Kentucky 57-59 7OT
- Marshall 34-31 OT
- @#22 Mississippi St 14-45
- @Akron 31-28
- Buffalo 7-38
- Miami OH 17-13
- @Central Michigan 34-18
- Western Michigan 13-9
- Kent St 6-40
- @Toledo 42-35
- @Ohio U. 14-38
If we weren't comparing them to New Mexico State, we'd say Bowling Green had a pretty damn weird year, too. It started with a big loss to #18 UCLA, nothing noteworthy there, but the 2nd game was a SEVEN overtime loss to Eastern Kentucky. It's bad enough to lose to an FCS team, but to string it out over 7 overtimes is just sad. Luckily the Falcons recovered and beat Marshall in just one overtime the very next game.
After that their most noteworthy games were awful losses to Buffalo (38-7) and Kent State (40-6), mixed in with some pretty good wins (they beat three bowl teams in total). But they finished with another bummer, losing 38-14 at Ohio. Our usual red flags are here: 3 non-conference losses, 3 home losses, bad loss at the end. But with their up and down play, it's hard to know which team will show up, the mediocre one, or the wretched one.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia is entering the transfer portal and won't play in the bowl game but has decided to play in the bowl game. He had an injury following their final game but he should be completely healed by game day.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Bowling Green is a small oddsmakers favorite.
- Location: New Mexico State is 1,700 miles and two time zones away from Detroit, while Bowling Green is less than 100 miles away. That's worth something; it's not home field but is at least 1 point, maybe 2.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Most teams don't want to end up in Detroit, it's right up there with Boise under "popular bowl destinations." But while it's not Hawaii, neither team in this case will be disappointed. Bowling Green gets to play close to home for its fans, and New Mexico State just wanted to get an exception to go to ANY bowl game. In fact, their enthusiasm for going bowling is almost unheard of, they made every argument they could to get an exception for having only 4 FBS wins. Bowling Green hasn't been to a bowl since 2015—longer ago than the Aggies, even—so they have reason for excitement, too.
- Momentum: New Mexico State has huge momentum from their last 2 games, but is it real or an illusion? We'll look at that in the final analysis. But going 6-6 and to a bowl game is great after having only 7 wins in the last 4 years, and they finished 5-1 after a 1-5 start. Bowling Green also improved over last year's 4-8 and finished the year 4-2 after a 2-4 start.
If ever momentum is on a team's side, it's New Mexico State. They're suddenly playing like a great team after years of futility and they have a chance to back it up in a bowl game. Bowling Green doesn't seem capable of momentum; they have some home field advantage on their side and that's it.
Final analysis
If New Mexico State plays the way they did in their last two games, this bowl will be no contest. Bowling Green won't be able to keep up with the Aggies, at all. The question is whether New Mexico State's momentum is real or if those last two games were non-reproducible flukes. The argument for that is: the big Liberty win was due to Liberty being bad—collapsing because of Hugh Freeze's imminent departure. And the Valpo game was, well, Valpo. They're not good, and New Mexico State just ran up the score to impress the Bowl Supreme Court that was deciding whether to let them in a bowl game.
That might be the answer. But a team doesn't just become good like that and have it disappear completely. There's no way the New Mexico State of the first half of the season could have run up the score on Valpo if they'd wanted to; the prediction for that game would have been 39-13—even the defense overperformed. And Liberty? That game should have been 37-12 in Liberty's favor. Sure the Flames might have played their worst game but to flip it to a 49-14 home loss required a lot of help from the Aggies.
Clearly the play of QB Diego Pavia, who threw for 3 touchdowns and ran for 3 more, was critical against Liberty. And he won't be in the bowl game. That certainly deflates a lot of the hype around New Mexico State (can you believe there is HYPE around New Mexico State? Maybe I'm the only one hyping them...) 2nd QB in the 2-QB system Gavin Frakes played a majority of a few games and won them, which at the time was amazing (winning, at all, for the Aggies). And Pavia had his chances to show greatness all year, and it didn't happen until the Liberty game, making me think it was a lot more of a team effort than suddenly Pavia became a Heisman-level player. UPDATE: Pavia is playing in the bowl game. The defense certainly rose to the occasion, too, holding Liberty to 14 at home and Valpo to a field goal. The last 2 games were about 35 points better than their overall average, 23 points better on offense and 12 points better on defense.
Maybe what's most impressive is how much New Mexico State wanted to go to a bowl game. They literally begged for an exception after winning an impossible game vs. Liberty, knowing that they'd be last on the bowl game pecking order. They weren't looking to go to Hawaii or the Bahamas so unlike most teams Detroit won't be a bummer.
We have to take the Aggies to win and win big. Maybe the hype train will end without Pavia, maybe it was going to stop after two games anyway, but it's pretty remarkable and it sure looks like the team has a new attitude. And Bowling Green has hardly bowled anyone over with their talent this year. We'll give them the 2 points for close-to-home field and that's it.
Prediction: New Mexico St 45, Bowling Green 16
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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