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Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
When: Thursday, December 29 at 2:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Syracuse Orange (7-5) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Well it's not a 6-6 vs. 6-6 bowl, maybe those are finally over?
Vegas line/spread: Minnesota by 11 (over/under 44)
We're a little surprised that the Gophers are favored at all, let alone by around a touchdown. Not shocked, just surprised. The line has moved steadily from 7 1/2 to 11, with the over up 2 points.
Strength power rating: #22 Minnesota 25, #54 Syracuse 19
Best/Worst removed: Minnesota 25-19
Turnover corrected: Minnesota 26-19
We give Syracuse partial home field advantage for playing in-state and a lot closer than Minnesota, so we end up with the game a touch tighter than the spread, but it's still pretty close, Minnesota being the favorite. Now that we look at our power rating and see Minnesota in the top 25 and Syracuse outside the top 50, it's apparent why the Gophers are favored.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7.5 Spread |
| Minnesota | 63% | 48% |
| Syracuse | 37% | 52% |
Minnesota doesn't quite cover the spread most of the time, which makes sense given our power rating's 6-point spread.
When Syracuse has the ball
| Syracuse scoring offense(adj): #57 |
Minnesota scoring defense(adj): #9 |
| Syracuse rushing offense(raw): #78 |
Minnesota rushing defense(raw): #15 |
| Syracuse passing offense(raw): #76 | Minnesota passing defense(raw): #8 |
Here's why the Gophers are favored: defense. They have a top ten scoring defense when adjusted for their opponents, and Syracuse has a pretty average offense for the FBS. It's going to be hard for the Orange to score and possibly to even move the ball, though the rush/pass numbers aren't adjusted for opponents and could be misleading. They're better for seeing the focus of an offense, and it shows the Orange are pretty balanced, but also that the Gophers don't really have a weakness in the D. They will be missing a D-back and a linebacker to the transfer portal, however. But Syracuse is missing their top RB and an OL starter, so maybe it evens out.
When Minnesota has the ball
| Minnesota scoring offense(adj): #55 |
Syracuse scoring defense(adj): #37 |
| Minnesota rushing offense(raw): #11 |
Syracuse rushing defense(raw): #68 |
| Minnesota passing offense(raw): #114 | Syracuse passing defense(raw): #19 |
Minnesota's offense is very similar in quality to Syracuse's, and they're facing a weaker Orange defense. The matchup is favorable for the Gophers too, as they like to run the ball while Syracuse is better against the pass. QB Tanner Morgan (1,324 yards, 7:5) is injured and didn't play in the last three games; he's listed as questionable which 9 times out of 10 means the guy plays and is fine, but this time might be the 1 in 10. But even if he doesn't play, backup Athan Kaliakmanis (866, 3:4) has done well enough in his place that it shouldn't matter in a run-based offense.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Syracuse: #76 Minnesota: #120
Neither team has great special teams but Minnesota is particularly poor. Their punting game, including fielding, is particularly poor so what Syracuse can't do on offense they can maybe do with field position.
Syracuse's season (7-5) • SOS: #47
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- Louisville 31-7
- @Connecticut 48-14
- Purdue 32-29
- Virginia 22-20
- Wagner 59-0
- #23 North Carolina St 24-9
- @#7 Clemson 21-27
- #21 Notre Dame 24-41
- @Pittsburgh 9-19
- #13 Florida St 3-38
- @Wake Forest 35-45
- @Boston College 32-23
Syracuse played a fairly tough schedule with 9 bowl teams and 4 in the Committee top 25. They started with a suprisingly easy win over Louisville which still ranks as their best game, then beat UConn who actually made a bowl too. They upset Purdue—something Minnesota couldn't do—and after beating #23 NC State they were 6-0 and seriously in the ACC title race. They fought hard at #7 Clemson and fell just 27-21, and after that they seemed deflated, losing their next four before recoving with a tepid win at Boston College. Their slump wasn't just due to emotion but also due to playing six straight bowl teams, three on the road, and four of them ranked in the Committee top 25 at year's end. So sheer physical exhaustion might have been part of it, something the time off might help with.
Minnesota's season (8-4) • SOS: #54
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- New Mexico St 38-0
- Western Illinois 62-10
- Colorado 49-7
- @Michigan St 34-7
- Purdue 10-20
- @Illinois 14-26
- @#11 Penn State 17-45
- Rutgers 31-0
- @Nebraska 20-13
- Northwestern 31-3
- Iowa 10-13
- @Wisconsin 23-16
For a brief time Minnesota looked like a Playoff team. It was after four games that the Gophers dominated 183-24, and were coming off a 34-7 domination of Michigan State in East Lansing. Of course the Spartans ended up 5-7, Colorado was 1-11, Western Illinois is an FCS team and New Mexico State actually made a bowl game but at that point was still New Mexico State. The Gophers subsequently lost three games in a row ended their hype in an instant. Now forgotten, Minnesota quietly won four of their last five games to finish 8-4, playing almost as well as they did at the beginning of the year.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan hasn't played in several games and is very questionable for the bowl. Also for Minnesota d-back Michael Dixon (28 tackles) is in the transfer portal, as well as LB Braelen Oliver (33 tackles).
For Syracuse, 5th-leading receiver Courtney Jackson is in the portal as well.
Update: the transfers and opt-outs have kept adding up for the Orange: #1 RB Sean Tucker (1,060 yards, 11 TDs); O-line starter Matt Bergeron; and starting safety Ja'had Carter.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Minnesota is a fairly strong favorite, something that might not seem right at first glance, but people have been sleeping on Minnesota since their mid-season collapse (guilty as charged).
- Location: Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. We've been giving Syracuse partial credit for playing in their home state, but it's arguable that upstate New York counts. Minnesota is a lot farther away though.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Syracuse hasn't been to a bowl since 2018 and just missed last year at 5-7, so the 2nd half of the season is less important due to that. Minnesota has been bowling regularly lately save 2020, and last year was the same 8-4 as this year. They probably have less motivation but ended the season well.
- Momentum: Here it's hard to know what to make of Syracuse. They started 6-0 and ended 1-5 which is bad, but as I've mentioned before when 6-6 teams go 5-1 and 1-5 it's inexplicably a good thing for bowl performance. Here it's hard to tell but it's clear they have no momentum per sé. Minnesota won four of their last five including their last game so they have it, I suppose.
Syracuse is playing fairly close to home for what that's worth, but the main thing is they're back to a bowl game and can probably forget about the last half of the season. Minnesota probably isn't psyched but also probably isn't disappointed. Neither team had players opting out in significant numbers, a good sign these days.
Final analysis
Both of these teams played their best football early in the season; this looked like a New Year's Day matchup from the vantage point of late September. Minnesota probably did it right, slumping in the middle of the season and recovering while Syracuse slumped for the 2nd half of the season.
If we could quantify exhaustion, and how much recovery helps, we might test it on Syracuse, who played 6 tough teams in a row without a week off. If we tracked all injuries we might see something usable but the noise in the system would probably outweigh the data. Let's just say that if Syracuse comes in fired up and looks fast and strong and wins easily, I might have to look into this theory. Certainly time off to recover and heal helps, but it helps the other team, too; identifying the special cases where it does the most good might be useful.
However we look at Syracuse's late season slump, the bottom line is they played worse; it wasn't just that they played the same and had a tougher schedule. Post-Clemson, they never played as well again as they had in 5 of the first 7 games. In other words, post-Clemson they played their 6th best, 8th best, 9th best, and their 11th and 12th best games of the season.
We use the mean and sometimes the median a lot in football analytics but you rarely see the mode, which is the most common score or rating. Here we see four of Syracuse's ratings almost exactly alike, and also 4 by Minnesota. Three times each they appear in the last five games for each team. If there's a "most common performance level" this is it for both teams. Since I think Minnesota is going to overcome any advantage the Orange have for being bowl-enthused (just a hunch), then it's fairly likely both teams play like they did late in the season. We have up to a 75% chance Syracuse will play like they did against Pitt, Wake, and BC, and a 60% chance Minnesota will play as in the Rutgers, Northwestern, and Wisconsin wins. The bad news for the Orange is they played 20 points worse than the Gophers on those occasions. We'll still spot them a few points for playing in-state, maybe a few for being enthused and better special teams, but we come out with a solid Minnesota win.
The Vegas line has moved heavily toward our spread too but isn't quite there as of game day. And the portal/injury losses for both teams have mounted but I'll stick with the original score pick.
Prediction: Minnesota 30, Syracuse 14
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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