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Peach Bowl in Atlanta, GA
When: Saturday, December 31 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#1 Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
This is the big one, the game most people figured would be in the national championship game but we get to see it a week early.
Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 5 (over/under 61.5)
Georgia is a pretty hefty favorite over Ohio State; before the Michigan game this would have been a lot tighter. Also the location helps. The line held steady for about three weeks, before dipping 1/2 point before game day and down another point on game day as "big wagers by influential bettors" came in according to ESPN.
Strength power rating: #1 Georgia 34, #2 Ohio State 29
Best/Worst removed: Georgia 34-30
Turnover corrected: Georgia 35-28
In our book this is #1 vs. #2. Despite Ohio State's loss to Michigan they still out-rate the #3 Wolverines and everyone else other than the Bulldogs. We give a large chunk of home-field advantage to the Bulldogs, too, for playing in what is basically their home away from home in Atlanta.
Throwing out each team's best and worst games narrows things by about a point, while correcting for turnovers widens the spread to a touchdown, pretty much matching the oddsmakers' line.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6.5 Spread |
| Georgia | 57% | 46.2% |
| Ohio State | 43% | 53.8% |
Georgia wins most of the game comparisons but doesn't cover the majority of the time when game performances are compared.
When Georgia has the ball
| Georgia scoring offense(adj): #3 |
Ohio State scoring defense(adj): #16 |
| Georgia rushing offense(raw): #18 |
Ohio State rushing defense(raw): #23 |
| Georgia passing offense(raw): #19 | Ohio State passing defense(raw): #14 |
This is the biggest advantage in the game, and it's not huge. Georgia's #3 scoring offense vs. Ohio State's #16 defense. The other numbers (rushing/passing) are unadjusted and should be taken with some skepticism. But they show Georgia has a balanced offense and Ohio State no major weakness on defense. QB Stetson Bennett (3,425 yards, 20:6) is normally thought of as a game manager but if so he's among the best, and can run when needed. The receiving yards and running plays are spread out over a number of players, suggesting a machine-like offense that gets the job done, though results vary from week to week. On their good weeks they outclass Ohio State's defense, but on the off weeks they have struggled against lesser defenses.
When Ohio State has the ball
| Ohio State scoring offense(adj): #2 |
Georgia scoring defense(adj): #1 |
| Ohio State rushing offense(raw): #28 |
Georgia rushing defense(raw): #1 |
| Ohio State passing offense(raw): #14 | Georgia passing defense(raw): #51 |
Ohio State has the 2nd best offense in the country. Of course, Georgia has the top defense in the country. This is a great matchup and will be amazing to see CJ Stroud (3,340 yards, 37:6) face off against the top D in the nation. Two receivers for the Buckeyes (Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka) already top 1,000 yards. The ground game is strong but Georgia boasts the #1 rushing defense in the nation (this number is unadjusted but very likely would be the same when adjusted for opposition). Ohio State's #2 rusher TreVeyon Henderson (571 yards) is out with injury, also.
The pass defense number for Georgia is misleading based on the offenses they've faced; on a per-attempt basis they are #13 and they're #11 in pass efficiency defense, so the "hole" suggested by the #51 ranking is a good example of why unadjusted figures aren't reliable. And per-game pass numbers, even if adjusted, can be misleading if all teams do is try to pass the ball. Since Georgia's rush defense is so lockdown teams go to the air often, and that leads to overinflated pass numbers. That's not to say Stroud can't move the ball against the Bulldog pass defense—it's clearly their best option.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Georgia: #79 Ohio State: #71
This might be where the game is won, but it's tight here, too, so who will have the big play? No real predictive value here.
Georgia's season (13-0) • SOS: #24
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 8-0
Record vs. top 25 teams: 5-0
- +#15 Oregon 49-3
- Samford 33-0
- @#19 South Carolina 48-7
- Kent St 39-22
- @Missouri 26-22
- Auburn 42-10
- Vanderbilt 55-0
- =Florida 42-20
- #6 Tennessee 27-13
- @#22 Mississippi St 45-19
- @Kentucky 16-6
- Georgia Tech 37-14
- +#17 LSU 50-30
Georgia opened with probably their best effort of the season, one of the very best of any team this year, the 49-3 demolition of Oregon in Atlanta. At the time it was thought that maybe Oregon's offense wasn't good but the fact was that Georgia was the best team in the country from the start of the season. Oregon would finish in the top ten in offense.
But even the 2nd game would show the Bulldogs propensity to slack off against weaker teams, something that would show up against Kent State and almost bit them at Missouri. Each time they did what they needed to do when games were too close, like the later game at Kentucky.
Along the way they beat five Committee top 25 teams, more than anyone else, and 8 bowl-bound teams. The biggest win was over Tennessee, where they held the top offense in the nation to just 13 points. They also beat South Carolina 48-7 and Mississippi State 45-19. Add in the 20 point win over LSU and they beat 5 top 25 teams by an average of 29.4 points, 5 points more than their average margin over the rest of their slate.
Georgia started and ended the season in Atlanta, where the Peach Bowl will be played.
Ohio State's season (11-1) • SOS: #39
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 6-1
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-1
- #21 Notre Dame 21-10
- Arkansas St 45-12
- Toledo 77-21
- Wisconsin 52-21
- Rutgers 49-10
- @Michigan St 49-20
- Iowa 54-10
- @#11 Penn State 44-31
- @Northwestern 21-7
- Indiana 56-14
- @Maryland 43-30
- #2 Michigan 23-45
Ohio State's first two games weren't that impressive offensively, as they scored just 21 on Notre Dame and 45 on Arkansas State. But after that the offense went on a tear and had several off-the-charts performances, starting with 77 vs. Toledo, then 52 on Wisconsin, 49 vs. Rutgers 49 vs. Michigan State, 54 vs. Iowa, 44 vs. Penn State, 56 on Indiana, and 43 vs. Maryland. The only bad performance in this stretch was the 21-7 win over Northwestern that took place in a wind storm and made passing and kicking the ball impossible.
But after 10 straight games (not counting Northwestern) of 43 points or more the Buckeyes only put up 23 against Michigan at home, a bad note to end the year on, especially when facing one of the only superior defenses in the country next time around. And giving up 45 points to a similarly good offense was their defense's worst outing by quite a bit. They had held 9 of 11 opponents to 21 or under and 31 was the previous high.
From an overall perspective the season was great: six wins over bowl teams, two wins over top 25 opponents. And before the Michigan game they were arguably the best team in the country. To lose by 22 on your home field can really affect a team, especially when it's to your hated rival, and no rivalry is more full of hate than Ohio State-Michigan, not even Auburn-Alabama or Oklahoma-Texas.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Ohio State's leading rusher Miyan Williams (817 yards, 13 TDs) has had the flu recently and missed practice but is expected to play. 2nd leading rusher TreVeyon Henderson (571 yards) has been out with injury most of the season and won't be back.
#2 receiver Ladd McConkey (675 yds) is questionable for Georgia.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Georgia is a fairly big favorite, and that probably doesn't sit well with Ohio State. Doesn't add much motivation to winning a Playoff game though. And Ohio State's interviews about being the underdog don't inspire confidence either, with cliché sentiments like "we've been counted out before" that aren't really true.
- Location: This is very important. Georgia playing in Atlanta is basically a home field when the opponent is outside the South. Maybe not fully a home field but a "home-away-from-home-field." See Analysis for an estimate of Georgia's HFA when in Atlanta.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Any team in the Playoff is motivated, but how extra motivated are they? Georgia is probably not "extra" motivated as they won it all last year, and we've seen how that works with Alabama, who alternates championship years generally. Yet the Tide tend to win the first Playoff game even on "off-years." Meanwhile Ohio State didn't make the Playoff last year so there's motivation there, and they surely want to rematch Michigan...or do they?
- Momentum: Ohio State backed into the Playoff and their loss was terrible, so they really have no momentum to speak of. But Georgia did just fine in a similar situation last year. This year they coast into the Playoff.
It's hard to really say one team could be more "up" for a Playoff game than another. We know that neither team will be "down" or unmotivated to win this game. It's more a question of which team has some extra motivation. It is possible that Georgia is less motivated since they were here last year, they won it all, and Ohio State missed the Playoff last season and will be more "up."
At the same time the Michigan game probably took something out of them. Losing on the road to the Wolverines last year was one thing, but losing at home, the second year in a row, when they've been raised from pups to believe Ohio State never loses to Michigan? It's even more telling to read about how the players like Stroud were affected by negative comments from fans on Twitter; they seem to feel the fanbase is abandoning them. This really paints a picture of a team not mentally up to the task of competing in a Playoff game.
Final analysis
Ohio State has a great offense, 2nd in the country only to Tennessee. Of course, Georgia held Tennessee to 13 points. That's probably the most basic comparison we can make, outside of the power rating estimate. Meanwhile Georgia has the #3 offense while #5 offense Michigan torched the Buckeyes for 45 points. Of course those were Ohio State's worst defensive performance and Georgia's best (or 2nd best to the Oregon game). But it makes you consider the possibilities. The most comparable defense Georgia faced was LSU and they scored 50 points; Ohio State faced the #3 defense with Michigan and scored 23.
I also looked at Ohio State's game vs. Northwestern, a 21-7 win in Evanston during 20 to 40 mile per hour winds that rendered Ohio State's passing game useless. Discounting this game, Ohio State pulls almost equal to Georgia in our power rating, separated by about a point. Should this game count? It's certainly not representative of Ohio State's quality, and not for anything that was their own fault either. At the same time, though, they should have been able to impose their will on Northwestern on the ground and really couldn't. If we do exclude that game as a fluke, our projected winning margin for Georgia essentially comes down to home field advantage for playing in Atlanta.
And let's talk about Georgia playing in Atlanta. They started and ended the season there, beating Oregon 49-3 and LSU 50-30. In both cases, those are above the projected margin for a neutral field (by a lot). In Atlanta they're in-state, close to home, in fact it's really their home away from home. They might not have "home field advantage" when playing Alabama, and maybe not even LSU but certainly Oregon was a fully home game for the Bulldogs. And Ohio State is pretty similar—they should get the majority of normal home field advantage in the Peach Bowl.
Georgia's home field advantage could be the difference overall. I looked at seven games since 2017 that Georgia played in Atlanta, not counting the 2020 Peach Bowl against Cincinnati since the power ratings for that year are wonky. Five of the seven times, Georgia outperformed the power rating's expectation for a neutral field. The two underperformances were big and the average ended up at 1.7 points. Every game except one was against teams also from the South (Alabama, LSU, Auburn) and the biggest effect was vs. Oregon. I expanded the search (Georgia has played 40 times in Atlanta, starting in 1902; I used just the 23 (-Cincy) from 1955-2022, the post-WWII era (there are none from 1945-1954), and the average was an even 2 points. It's 2.6 over the last 50 years and 3 points over the last 25, but I'm not sure it gets more accurate by excluding the older figures as it changes a lot moving from excluding one game to the next. Two points seems about right.
But for all that, I'm thinking it will be Georgia in a rout. The first-round Playoff games tend to be routs, and Ohio State has to get over the Michigan loss. Are they that motivated to play the Wolverines again? Maybe, and they'll say so, but they seemed really off at the end of that game. It should be a great game, and all the stats point to it, and obviously anything can happen—but I'm going out on a limb and saying it's not close.
Prediction: Georgia 41, Ohio State 22
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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