View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA
When: Wednesday, December 21 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
South Alabama Jaguars (10-2) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5)
These teams played the #120 and #121 toughest schedules in the country, so this game will be a big step up from their average opponent.
Vegas line/spread: South Alabama by 4 (over/under 57)
The line appears to have opened a low as South Alabama by 2 1/2, then moved up to 8 after a big player announcement shook the odds on Monday the 5th. Update: The line is back down to -4 and the o/u is up from 54.5 to 57 as WKU's Austin Reed withdrew from the portal and is back in the game.
Strength power rating: #58 W. Kentucky 28, #62 So. Alabama 26
Best/Worst removed: Western Kentucky 28-26
Turnover corrected: Western Kentucky 27-27
Our Strength power rating comes to a different conclusion than Vegas, with Western Kentucky a 2 point favorite. Note that when we correct for turnover luck the game is pretty much a draw, with WKU winning what could be described as a 3-overtime game.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -8 Spread |
| South Alabama | 49.4% | 29% |
| Western Kentucky | 50.6% | 71% |
The game-comparisons are even tighter than the power rating spread of 2 points; over 156 outcomes Western Kentucky wins 79 and loses 77. Spotted the 8 points for the spread, though, and they win more than 7 of 10.
When South Alabama has the ball
| So. Alabama scoring offense(adj): #71 |
WKU scoring defense(adj): #66 |
| So. Alabama rushing offense(raw): #57 |
WKU rushing defense(raw): #75 |
| So. Alabama passing offense(raw): #41 | WKU passing defense(raw): #69 |
This is a pretty even match; Western Kentucky's defense is slightly better, almost to a negligible point, and South Alabama should find some success running and passing the ball. Normally we don't trust raw numbers like the bottom two rows but these teams play almost the same level of schedule overall so it probably can be trusted in general to make these comparison.
When Western Kentucky has the ball
| WKU scoring offense(adj): #39 |
So. Alabama scoring defense(adj): #58 |
| WKU rushing offense(raw): #72 |
So. Alabama rushing defense(raw): #6 |
| WKU passing offense(raw): #2 | So. Alabama passing defense(raw): #52 |
Here Western Kentucky has a noted advantage over the Jaguars. Their scoring offense is quite a bit better than South Alabama's defense, and in the rushing/passing breakdown we see South Alabama's solid rushing defense wasted on a team that doesn't run much. Instead, they pass at such a voracious clip that they rank #2 (unadjusted) in the nation. Again, we can compare these teams directly using unadjusted numbers because they play the same level of schedule. WKU QB Austin Reed has 4,247 yards on the year with a 36:10 ratio.
So we can conclude in a basic sense that South Alabama can shut down WKU's run game but can't stop their passing game—unless they're very good at pressuring the QB. The Jaguars are #48 in sacks and WKU is #19 in protection, so it doesn't look like that's going to be the key. It looks like it will be a good day for Reed right? Not so fast...Austin Reed entered the transfer portal the other day, putting WKU's entire offense up in the air. So much for analysis! Back to the drawing board in other words.
Update: Reed has withdrawn from the transfer portal and is playing in the bowl again. Who can keep up with this? Two starting offensive linemen are still in the portal.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): South Alabama: #37 Western Kentucky: #125
This is enough of a difference to affect the outcome in a close game.
So. Alabama (10-2) • SOS: #120
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- Nicholls St 48-7
- @Central Michigan 38-24
- @#18 UCLA 31-32
- Louisiana Tech 38-14
- @Louisiana-Lafayette 20-17
- Louisiana-Monroe 41-34
- #24 Troy 6-10
- @Arkansas St 31-3
- @Georgia Southern 38-31
- Texas St-San Marcos 38-21
- @Southern Miss 27-20
- Old Dominion 27-20
South Alabama is a pretty consistent team, so consistent that the game most people remember from their season is a 1-point loss at UCLA. The only game clearly better than that was the 31-3 win at Arkansas State. The Jaguars finished with five straight wins and their only losses were to top 25 teams.
WKU (8-5) • SOS: #121
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- Austin Peay 38-27
- @Hawai`i 49-17
- @Indiana 30-33 OT
- Florida Int'l 73-0
- #24 Troy 27-34
- @#25 UTSA 28-31
- @MTSU 35-17
- UAB 20-17
- North Texas 13-40
- @UNC-Charlotte 59-7
- Rice 45-10
- @Auburn 17-41
- @Florida Atlantic 32-31 OT
Western Kentucky is the opposite of South Alabama in terms of consistency. They beat FIU 73-0 and Charlotte 59-7, and Rice 45-10, but also lost to North Texas 40-13 and Auburn 41-17. It's pretty much all or nothing for the Hilltoppers, so the idea of an "average game" is pretty silly. They did play well against both Troy and UTSA, losing by 7 and 3 points. The Hilltoppers lost 3 non-conference games which is one of our red flags, as well as two home games.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
For WKU, QB Austin Reed (4,247 yds, 36:10) has entered the transfer portal, as has backup QB Darius Ocean (135 yds, 2:1). Update: Reed backed out of backing out of the bowl game. Darius Ocean is still gone.
The Hilltoppers are still down two starting offensive linemen, Rusty Staats and Gunner Britton, and #1 tackler LB JaQues Evans (101 tackles). TE Josh Simon, the #6 receiver, is in the portal as well.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: South Alabama is a pretty big favorite, and it's largely because of WKU's quarterback leaving. Sometimes teams get overconfident and play poorly when their opponent is missing a key player, so this could have an effect on both teams. Update: With Reed back, who knows what to think.
- Location: The game is definitely being played closer to home for South Alabama; we didn't modify the power ratings because it wasn't "in-state" but they're a few hours away compared to 10 hours for WKU, and the Jaguars should have a lot more fan support as a result.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: South Alabama had a great season at 10-2, so they should be pretty happy about their season. Western Kentucky's season is basically a repeat of last year's at 8-5, but how will the rest of the team feel about their QB and leader leaving? Probably not too good.
- Momentum: South Alabama won five straight to finish the year, and they improved a lot over last year's 5-7 and are in their first bowl game since 2016.
You can argue giving some home field advantage to South Alabama, maybe a point. They also should be more impressed with their improvement this year, but the Jaguars play pretty much the same under all circumstances. The effect on Western Kentucky of not having their starting quarterback is much more of a concern than anything else.
Final analysis
How important is Austin Reed to the Hilltoppers? Sometimes losing a key player doesn't make much of a difference. But Western Kentucky's offense is pass-based, so you'd think it's a big deal. However...is he just a "system quarterback" who can be exchanged like a replacement part? Thing is, their 2nd string quarterback is gone, too, so the replacement level might be poor. Instead of just speculating, shouldn't we look at what's happened in previous years when a starting quarterback opts out of a bowl game? So we shall.
- Just last year, Kenny Pickett opted out of Pitt's bowl game. We projected they would score 34 points; they scored 21
- Also in 2021, Carson Strong opted out of Nevada's bowl game. Projected scoring: 39 points; result: 24 points
- 2018 West Virginia: Will Grier opts out. Projected score: 43 points; result: 18 points
- 2017 UCLA, Josh Rosen opts out. Projected score: 30 points; result: 17 points
Wow. That's pretty bad, a lot worst than I thought, and pretty consistent: 13, 15, 25, and 13 points. Average 16.5 points. No wonder the spread jumped from 2.5 to 8 in minutes. And without their top 2 quarterbacks out, a 16.5 point reduction sounds possible.
Update: Forget all of the above, Reed is back. Now we have a situation that is probably a first—a player opting out, then coming back 4 days before the bowl. But we're only restoring part of what we subtracted from WKU because it has to be a distraction when your QB holds out for real estate broker money while you're prepping for the bowl game. Sticking with South Alabama, whose pass defense is a solid #18 on a per-attempt basis, unlike the teams Reed beat up on recently like #131 UNC-Charlotte.
Prediction: South Alabama 30, Western Kentucky 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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