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New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM
Time: Saturday, December 17 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
SMU Mustangs (7-5) vs. BYU Cougars (7-5)
Two teams that won national titles in the early 80s and have been trying to get back there ever since. Not a bad bowl for day 2, as both teams showed flashes of great play during the season.
Vegas line/spread: SMU by 4 (over/under 64.5)
The oddsmakers like the Mustangs in a close, high-scoring game. Since our review the line has moved sharply toward SMU, up from 1 1/2 while the over/under fell dramatically from 71. So it's not quite so close and high scoring any more.
Strength power rating: #56 SMU 40, #69 BYU 35
Best/Worst removed: SMU 39-36
Turnover corrected: SMU 41-35
The Strength power rating has SMU by around five points; that decreases to three if you remove each team's best and worst game (we'll see that SMU's best game is huge, and BYU's worst is pretty bad, so this makes sense). Removing turnover "luck" gives SMU an overall 6-point advantage, though.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -4 Spread |
| SMU | 60% | 52.1% |
| BYU | 40% | 47.9% |
SMU wins 3 of 5 game-comparisons straight up, and a slightly smaller amount accounting for the small (early 1.5 point) spread. Against a 4 point spread it's even tighter, of course. These comparisons use the team's performances over the season, and both are missing key players now so these results are less relevant.
When SMU has the ball
| SMU scoring offense(adj): #17 |
BYU scoring defense(adj): #82 |
| SMU rushing offense(raw): #66 |
BYU rushing defense(raw): #98 |
| SMU passing offense(raw): #6 | BYU passing defense(raw): #84 |
We can see why the oddsmakers show a high-scoring game, and even higher for our Strength power rating. SMU has a top 25 level scoring offense while BYU's defense hasn't been very good this year. Broken down into raw (unadjusted) rushing and passing figures BYU's defense remains about the same while we see the Mustangs are a passing team, top ten in yardage. QB Tanner Mordecai (seriously) has over 3,300 yards and a 31:9 ratio. BYU ranks #130 in sacks so don't look for QB pressure.
Top target Rashee Rice has 1,355 yards and 10 TDs but he's declared for the NFL, leaving a huge hole in the offense. Rice has 3x the receptions and almost 3x the yardage as the next guy, a loss that will impact the passing game a lot.
When BYU has the ball
| BYU scoring offense(adj): #53 |
SMU scoring defense(adj): #108 |
| BYU rushing offense(raw): #52 |
SMU rushing defense(raw): #121 |
| BYU passing offense(raw): #32 | SMU passing defense(raw): #92 |
BYU's offense is mediocre to middling but SMU's defense is terrible. To be fair, SMU plays one of the fastest offenses in college football so there are more drives per team, and more drives means more points scored, period. But #108 is pretty bad, and BYU will have a lot more drives than normal. The Cougars are good but not great on the ground and through the air, but they might look amazing against SMU's defense.
QB Jaren Hall (3,171 yards, 31:6) is now listed as "doubtful" for the game, which means he still may play but probably not. Clearly this would have a big impact on the team, as backup Jacob Conover has transferred and Cade Fennegan hasn't taken any snaps in a game. Update: Hall is out.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): SMU: #100 BYU: #97
Neither team has good special teams, so neither has an advantage.
SMU's season (7-5) • SOS: #57
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @North Texas 48-10
- Lamar 45-16
- @Maryland 27-34
- #3 TCU 34-42
- @Central Florida 19-41
- Navy 40-34
- Cincinnati 27-29
- @Tulsa 45-34
- Houston 77-63
- @South Florida 41-23
- @#16 Tulane 24-59
- Memphis 34-31
SMU kicked off the season with their best win by far, a 48-10 thumping of North Texas that made them look like the American conference favorite right off the bat. They never really came close to being that good again, and after losing to Maryland, #3 TCU, and UCF they were 2-3. The Mustangs went 5-2 from there and only lost in-conference to UCF, Cincinnati, and #16 Tulane, which is pretty good overall. They were 3-5 against bowl teams, and 3-3 against unranked bowl teams. Their signature game was game 9 against Houston where the two teams combined for 140 points in 60 minutes. The Mustangs ended strong going 4-1 but the loss was their worst game, a 59-24 drubbing by Tulane.
BYU's season (7-5) • SOS: #65
Non-conf losses: NA • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @South Florida 50-21
- Baylor 26-20 2OT
- @#15 Oregon 20-41
- Wyoming 38-24
- Utah St 38-26
- =#21 Notre Dame 20-28
- Arkansas 35-52
- @Liberty 14-41
- East Carolina 24-27
- @Boise St 31-28
- Utah Tech 52-26
- @Stanford 35-26
Like SMU, BYU's first game was their best, though it wasn't quite as radical. The problem is that their 2nd game was their 2nd best, so after two games—a 50-21 crushing of USF, and a double overtime win over Baylor—hopes were high for a team that had several big teams left on their schedule. They couldn't keep up with Oregon, however, losing 41-20, and they lost to Notre Dame 28-20 which started them on a 4-game skid that bottomed out in a terrible 49-14 loss at Liberty. To their credit the Cougars recovered and won three straight at the end, but the defense was consistently mediocre, especially against FCS's Utah Tech.
For the entire year, BYU never held a team under 20 points. In the last six games, the low was 26.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
BYU's #3 running back Lopini Katoa is out with an injury; QB Jaren Hall has been confirmed out as well. On defense, #2 tackler LB Kennan Pill is transferring.
For SMU, leading receiver Rashee Rice is opting out.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: SMU is the slight favorite, and with both teams 7-5 neither will be overconfident or feel disrespected
- Location: The New Mexico location is pretty much the mid-point between Provo and Dallas
- Coaching: No change
- Motivation: Not sure either team really wants to be here, but both have to be thankful they made a bowl at all. Probably more a sense of relief rather than enthusiasm for both teams, who were 3-4 and 4-5 respectively at one point.
- Momentum: Both teams have some good late-season momentum, BYU going 3-0 to finish and SMU 4-1. Both teams fell short of last year's benchmark where SMU was 8-4 and BYU 10-2 at regular season's end. Like I said, relief not enthusiasm most likely.
There's really nothing to go by here, it's about as even as you can get, right down to the mid-point location.
Final analysis
Both of these teams peaked in their first game, settled down from there and had one terrible game. Both had losing records and things looked bleak. Both came through in the end to finish 7-5 and get a bowl berth. It's fitting that they face off in New Mexico.
It looks like both offenses will have free reign. SMU's passing attack is very potent—top ten in raw yardage—and BYU's pass defense is poor, and they are terrible at pressuring the quarterback so he'll have time to pick his targets. Meanwhile SMU's defense is bad—and their fast-paced offense allows many possessions—so BYU will score a lot, too. One thing the Cougars do very well is protect the QB so both QBs will be slinging the ball around all evening. (Update: see below)
Update for the above: With Rashee Rice out for SMU, and BYU QB Jaren Hall doubtful (now confirmed out), the offenses take a big step back from dominating the opposing defenses. Those losses are why the over/under fell from 71 to 64 in a heartbeat.
SMU held opponents under 28 points only 3 times; they win by overwhelming teams with offense and hoping the other team can't keep up. The teams that have been able to slow down SMU enough to defeat them all rank #43 or better in scoring defense. They've beaten every team with a scoring defense worse than that; BYU ranks #82. BYU probably can't keep up with the pace that SMU is going to try to set while starting an inexperienced third-string QB.
Update: Due to the losses we mentioned previously we've cut our score estimate a LOT. And then even more for good measure. I don't think either team's passing game will be recognizable.
Prediction: SMU 31, BYU 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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