View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Myrtle Beach Bowl in Conway, SC
When: Monday, December 19 at 2:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) vs. Connecticut Huskies (6-6)
Can you believe it? UConn made a bowl game, for the first time since 2015 and only the 2nd time since their 2010 Fiesta Bowl appearance.
Vegas line/spread: Marshall by 11 (over/under 40.5)
Marshall is a hefty favorite to win a low scoring game. Add the over/under and oddsmakers are picking about a 25-15 result more or less. Spread is up from 10 and over/under has stayed around 40.5.
Strength power rating: #67 Marshall 25, #148 UConn 9
Best/Worst removed: Marshall 25-9
Turnover corrected: Marshall 24-10
Our power ratings give Marshall an even bigger cushion, and give UConn even fewer points on offense; this persists regardless of modifications.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -10 Spread |
| Marshall | 84% | 62% |
| UConn | 16% | 38% |
Marshall is a huge favorite by our power rating, winning 84% of game comparisons and still winning more than 3/5 of the time against the initial 10-point spread.
When Marshall has the ball
| Marshall scoring offense(adj): #105 |
UConn scoring defense(adj): #105 |
| Marshall rushing offense(raw): #21 |
UConn rushing defense(raw): #89 |
| Marshall passing offense(raw): #104 | UConn passing defense(raw): #63 |
How's this for an even matchup, the #105 offense vs. the #105 defense, both figures adjusted for opposition. Not as good as #5 vs. #5, but competitive at least. Marshall is more of a running team with Khalan Laborn leading the way with 1.423 yards.
When UConn has the ball
| UConn scoring offense(adj): #116 |
Marshall scoring defense(adj): #20 |
| UConn rushing offense(raw): #32 |
Marshall rushing defense(raw): #5 |
| UConn passing offense(raw): #127 | Marshall passing defense(raw): #31 |
This matchup is another matter altogether. UConn has a terrible offense, though it's not much worse than Marshall's. The difference is Marshall's defense which is top 25 in quality. Though you can't trust the rush/pass breakdown figures due to Marshall's terrible SOS, they're in line with what you would see from a #20 defense so they're not all that far off. It means that UConn run game is going to run into a wall—and they really have no passing game to speak of to take the pressure off.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Marshall: #102 UConn: #112
Marshall's poor special teams play would be one thing that could give UConn a chance—if it weren't for the fact that the Huskies are even worse.
Marshall's season (8-4) • SOS: #110
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1
- Norfolk St 55-3
- @#21 Notre Dame 26-21
- @Bowling Green 31-34 OT
- @#24 Troy 7-16
- Gardner-Webb 28-7
- Louisiana-Lafayette 13-23
- @James Madison 26-12
- Coastal Carolina 13-24
- @Old Dominion 12-0
- Appalachian St 28-21
- @Georgia Southern 23-10
- Georgia St 28-23
Marshall shocked the world by upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend, 26-21—but immediately squandered that momentum by losing to Bowling Green in overtime, and then to Troy. Losses to ULL and Coastal Carolina put them at 4-4, but four solid wins to end the season put the Herd about where they should be, a solid season but not in the top 25.
They were 4-4 against bowl teams (counting James Madison) and 1-1 vs. the top 25. Their solid, consistent play at the end of the season bodes well if they can carry that into the bowl game.
UConn's season (6-6) • SOS: #78
Non-conf losses: n/a • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @Utah St 20-31
- Central Conn St 28-3
- Syracuse 14-48
- @#2 Michigan 0-59
- @#23 North Carolina St 10-41
- Fresno St 19-14
- @Florida Int'l 33-12
- @Ball St 21-25
- Boston College 13-3
- Massachusetts 27-10
- Liberty 36-33
- @Army 17-34
Connecticut entered the season as probably an underdog in 10 or 11 games. They wound up with six wins.
It didn't start well at 1-4, with bad losses to Utah State and Syracuse, as well as top 25 teams Michigan and NC State. Their win over Central Connecticut, while it prevented an 0-12 season, wasn't too inspiring. But then they upset Fresno State, which was a big deal and from there they were a competent team, winning four of their last six including wins over Boston College and Liberty. No longer a team "assumed" to lose, the Huskies were back to being sort of an average team, one that might win a given game. It seems like the change might have been as much mental as anything. Perhaps most impressively the Huskies only lost once at home, compared to 5 home losses last year.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
UConn's #3 rusher Nathan Carter (405 yards) is transferring. Third-leading WR Talik Keaton is questionable for Marshall.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Marshall is yet another 10-point favorite, out of 9 games in the first 3 bowl days. That's almost 50% seen to be mismatches. There's the usual chance of a team being overconfident when they're expected to win by a lot, and in this case playing UConn might be seen as a trifle.
- Location: Conway is closer to Marshall than UConn but both are still far away, and in the same time zone.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Neither team will be disappointed at where they ended up. UConn for obvious reasons—very few were expecting a bowl season from the Huskies, or anything close, so they're ecstatic. Marshall, on the other hand, probably had really high hopes after the Notre Dame win but once they were 4-4 those dreams had diminished. Finishing not just with the two wins needed but with four is a good sign that they are motivated, too.
- Momentum: Both teams have decent momentum; Marshall ended with four solid wins, and UConn won three of their last four. Though they dropped their final game, the Huskies improved from 1-11 to 6-6 which will make any team happy. Marshall improved from 7-5 last season.
We're not sure Marshall will overlook UConn, because it seems the narrative on the Huskies has changed from "they are terrible" to "they aren't very good but they aren't a joke." Marshall took teams (Bowling Green) lightly this year and paid for it; if they learned their lesson they won't overlook the Huskies.
UConn is clearly the more excited team about this bowl game, but that doesn't mean Marshall is going to slog their way through it and get upset. UConn's enthusiasm won't necessarily translate to better bowl play unless Marshall is a willing participant, and the Herd finished the season strong, too.
Final analysis
It looks like an even game when Marshall has the ball—their offense is no better than UConn's bad defense. But everything else is lined up for a big Marshall win, hence the double-digit spread. Marshall's defense outclasses the Huskie offense by many degrees. Special teams play can't close the gap at all. The only thing that could swing the game to UConn's favor is psychology and motivation.
And there's not too much there. The big thing is UConn's improvement and the fact that they're back in a bowl game. But sometimes that's a reward in and of itself—the goal is breaking out of the perennial 1-11 or 3-9 trap and getting the bowl bid. They've done their job. A win would be great but a loss wouldn't diminish their season.
Really, this one looks like a "settled on the field" type of game, and Marshall's defense should be what settles it. We see Marshall controlling the game and winning, the only question being do they cover the hefty spread. Both teams played great in their last four games and look like they'll keep that up. Over that span Marshall was about 14 points better, which matches the overall season for both teams in our power rating. We think Marshall takes care of business against the Huskies, who won't be any less excited at having a 6-win season after only 4 wins in the last four years.
Prediction: Marshall 28, UConn 10
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
Comments