View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
When: Saturday, December 31 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ABC
Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5)
What happens when two teams who have no offense to speak of both lose their starting quarterbacks before a bowl game?
Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 3 (over/under 31.5)
The over/under says it all, and it might be generous. The line for Iowa is up from 2.
Strength power rating: #34 Iowa 11, #40 Kentucky 10
Best/Worst removed: Iowa 11-10
Turnover corrected: Kentucky 10-10
We're serious, that's the score the Strength power rating expects. 11 to 10. Knowing Iowa, that might be a field goal and four safeties. Iowa gets a lot of turnovers and when we correct for their influence, Kentucky becomes a 1-point winner, or it might end in a 10-10 tie.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2 Spread |
| Iowa | 50% | 44.4% |
| Kentucky | 50% | 55.6% |
Though Iowa wins the average game by just over 1 point, when the game ratings are mapped out and cross-compared each team wins 72 of the 144 trials. When spotted 2 points, Kentucky wins a slim majority.
When Iowa has the ball
| Iowa scoring offense(adj): #77 |
Kentucky scoring defense(adj): #10 |
| Iowa rushing offense(raw): #122 |
Kentucky rushing defense(raw): #60 |
| Iowa passing offense(raw): #123 | Kentucky passing defense(raw): #7 |
Here we get to the crux of the matter, and Iowa's offense doesn't rank nearly as badly as their reputation. What gives? The most important thing is to note that Iowa ranks #123 in raw scoring, so they really don't score much. The correction to #77 is for their schedule strength—in particular, the strength of the offenses they face. And also keep this in mind: scoring offense encompasses more than offense. It ends up incorporating the play of the defense, either due to pick sixes and safeties, and also turnovers that set up good field position, and also the entirety of special teams. Iowa has a top ten defense and special teams, and that helps their offense score more points than it would left to its own devices. Finally, Iowa is #114 on offense in our All-Division power rating, which includes their FBS game which was their worst performance. So maybe that's closer to the truth.
Anyway, they're up against Kentucky's top ten defense, and QB Spencer Petras (1,725 yards, 5 TDs, 5 Int) is injured and will miss the game. Given his number you might say that's not a big deal, but backup Alex Padilla (173 yds, 1:2) has entered the transfer portal (don't all grab at once!). And no other Iowa QB has thrown a pass this year—or even taken a snap. But Iowa can run the ball right? Yes, if you ignore those raw rushing numbers and assume, like the scoring offense, it's about #77. Kaleb Johnson leads Iowa with 762 yards.
When Kentucky has the ball
| Kentucky scoring offense(adj): #75 |
Iowa scoring defense(adj): #6 |
| Kentucky rushing offense(raw): #109 |
Iowa rushing defense(raw): #13 |
| Kentucky passing offense(raw): #88 | Iowa passing defense(raw): #9 |
This looks like a mirror image of the box above, or rather, it looks like the same thing. Kentucky's offense is pretty bad, especially for a Power Five school, and Iowa defense is pretty lockdown. And of course, Kentucky's starting quarterback Will Levis (2,406 yds, 19:10) is opting out of the bowl. And not only that, but UK's top two running backs Chris Rodriguez (904 yards) and Kavosiey Smoke (277) are both opting/transferring.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Iowa: #7 Kentucky: #121
This is one of the biggest discrepancies of the bowl season in terms of special teams. In a pretty even matchup this might be how the winner is decided. Iowa isn't the best in any category but they're in the top 1/3 in about everything. Meanwhile Kentucky ranks in the triple digits in a lot of categories: punting average, punt returns, field goal %, and punt coverage.
Iowa's season (7-5) • SOS: #29
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1
- South Dakota St 7-3
- Iowa St 7-10
- Nevada 27-0
- @Rutgers 27-10
- #2 Michigan 14-27
- @Illinois 6-9
- @#4 Ohio State 10-54
- Northwestern 33-13
- @Purdue 24-3
- Wisconsin 24-10
- @Minnesota 13-10
- Nebraska 17-24
Game one is what made Iowa famous this football season: the infamous 7-3 win over South Dakota State. In and of itself, beating South Dakota State by 4 points is not bad—note that the Jackrabbits are in the "final four" of the FCS playoff. But Iowa beat them not by scoring a touchdown but by kicking a field goal and getting 2 safeties. That's why the offense barely registers for that game on the smaller chart.
Iowa played a little better each game, win or lose, for the first half of the season but still scored just 7 on Iowa State and 6 at Illinois. Finally in the Ohio State game even the defense played terribly. After that Iowa had sort of a renaissance in offense, scoring a moderate amount in three games and letting the defense do its thing to win four in a row.
The last game of the year was their worst since Ohio State, and they lost at home to Nebraska, a sad effort on both offense and defense. The defense played well in 10 games and had two brain farts, while the offense had maybe one good game—Northwestern, where it scored a whopping 33 points.
Kentucky's season (7-5) • SOS: #21
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- Miami OH 37-13
- @Florida 26-16
- Youngstown St 31-0
- Northern Illinois 31-23
- @Mississippi 19-22
- #19 South Carolina 14-24
- #22 Mississippi St 27-17
- @#6 Tennessee 6-44
- @Missouri 21-17
- Vanderbilt 21-24
- #1 Georgia 6-16
- Louisville 26-13
Kentucky's high total on offense came right away with 37 against Miami of Ohio. The inset chart says the 27 scored on Mississippi State and the 26 on Louisville are better performances, but it's got to be disheartening when you top 30 points 3 of your first 4 games and never again.
The defense showed up almost every game though, even in their first two losses to Ole Miss (22-19) and South Carolina (24-14). The D was critical in the Mississippi State win, the Missouri win, and almost helped them pull off an upset for the ages against Georgia. But the offense was so bad in that game, and against Vanderbilt, that Kentucky never won two games in a row after that initial 4-game run.
For all their ups and downs, the two best overall performances the Wildcats had in a row were the last two games: the 16-6 loss to Georgia and the 26-13 win over Louisville. What are the odds they can play three good games in a row?
Key Injuries / opt-outs
For Iowa: QB Spencer Petras is injured and won't play; backup Alex Padilla has entered the transfer portal. Also Iowa's #3 RB Gavin Williams and #4 receiver Arland Bruce have entered the portal.
For Kentucky: QB Will Levis is opting out along with #1 RB Chris Rodriguez while #2 RB Kavosiey Smoke is transferring. On defense, starting LB DeAndre Square is opting out.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Iowa is a slim favorite due to having less attrition
- Location: It's almost an in-state game for Kentucky, being in Tennessee, but Iowa travels well and will be represented equally there if not more.
- Coaching: No change (Iowa never changes coaches, of course).
- Motivation: It's unlikely either team is motivated to cap this season off with a win for history's sake. Last year Iowa had 10 wins and Kentucky 9 wins before bowl season. And Kentucky beat Iowa to get their 10th win. Will Kentucky be motivated to "beat Iowa again"? It's doubtful. Maybe Iowa will get some motivation to get revenge for that bowl loss. Remember the Citrus!
- Momentum: There's not much here. Kentucky never put together a decent win streak all season, and while Iowa did, it ended with a terrible loss to Nebraska. At least Kentucky finished with a strong win, so they check the box here.
Iowa's last game was a serious downer. Kentucky beat rival Louisville solidly. If those emotions carry forward, Kentucky has the emotional edge. I seriously doubt Iowa is champing at the bit to get revenge for last year's bowl loss.
Final analysis
This has got to be the least anticipated bowl game between two Power Five teams this bowl season. Obviously the clear lack of offense is not going to appeal to anyone, but it's also a repeat of last year's Citrus Bowl where Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17. How sad is that?
Both teams are losing their quarterback(s). Iowa is at least keeping their leading rusher, in fact their top two rushers while Kentucky is losing both of theirs. Probably why Iowa is a slight favorite—they're losing less from their terrible offense than Kentucky is. The quarterback situation is terrible for both. Kentucky loses more with Levis gone but at least his backup has thrown passes. Iowa started worse at the position and will remain worse, with essentially a scout team player taking over.
It's true that if it comes down to special teams Iowa will win. If the teams keep punting the ball back and forth after 3-and-outs, eventually Iowa will be close enough to the end zone to kick a field goal, or pin Kentucky close enough to the goal line to get a safety. There is a real possibility that the game will play out like this; it's how the Iowa vs. South Dakota State game went, basically.
Both teams last games tell a story. For Iowa, the defense finally broke as it was getting zero support from the offense. Meanwhile for Kentucky the defense held against Georgia, and helped get the win against Louisville. Will that carry over to the bowl game? It doesn't seem either team is fired up for this rematch.
But I do think both offenses get bogged down and it's a punt fest. That favors Iowa, as does a field goal battle. I changed my mind on this once already and may do so again—when there are this few points it's anyone's game at any time. Makes it exciting right?
Prediction: Iowa 11, Kentucky 6
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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