View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD
When: Wednesday, December 28 at 2:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Duke Blue Devils (8-4) vs. UCF Knights (9-4)
A Military Bowl with no armed forces teams since Navy didn't qualify.
Vegas line/spread: Duke by 3 (over/under 62.5)
Duke began as a 1 point favorite but by game day was about a field goal favorite. The over has remained very consistent.
Strength power rating: #35 UCF 33, #51 Duke 29
Best/Worst removed: UCF 33-29
Turnover corrected: UFC 35-26
Though the oddsmakers pick Duke, our Strength power rating takes the Knights by around 4 points. What's more, if we remove the influence of turnovers Duke's rating goes down a lot, making it a 9 point win for the Knights.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -1 Spread |
| Duke | 44% | 40% |
| UCF | 56% | 60% |
Since Strength favors UCF straight up, it's clear the game-comparison system is not going to favor Duke at -1. But the Blue Devils still cover in 2 out of 5 comparisons, so it's not cut and dried.
When Duke has the ball
| Duke scoring offense(adj): #38 |
UCF scoring defense(adj): #43 |
| Duke rushing offense(raw): #40 |
UCF rushing defense(raw): #76 |
| Duke passing offense(raw): #60 | UCF passing defense(raw): #73 |
It's a pretty even game when Duke has the ball. With fairly even schedules, the rush/pass numbers are workable, and Duke should have a way to move the ball through the air or on the ground, though neither will be easy. Duke QB Riley Leonard does a bit of both, passing for 2,794 yards (20:6) and running for 636. UCF will be missing a starting linebacker, too.
When UCF has the ball
| UCF scoring offense(adj): #29 |
Duke scoring defense(adj): #56 |
| UCF rushing offense(raw): #8 |
Duke rushing defense(raw): #24 |
| UCF passing offense(raw): #55 | Duke passing defense(raw): #108 |
Central Florida's offense is nearly top 25 while Duke's D is barely above average. The key matchup will be in the running game where both sides excel. Again it's the QB, John Rhys Plumlee, throwing for 2,404 yards (14:7) and being the team's #1 rusher with 841 yards, though they also have two backs above 750 each. They'd like to exploit Duke's passing defense too but #2 receiver Ryan O'Keefe (726 yards) is "in the portal" as they say, and Plumlee has a hamstring injury that shouldn't keep him out of the game but might limit him in the running game.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Duke: #25 UCF: #38
Both teams have decent special teams squads.
Duke's season (8-4) • SOS: #91
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- Temple 30-0
- @Northwestern 31-23
- North Carolina A&T 49-20
- @Kansas 27-35
- Virginia 38-17
- @Georgia Tech 20-23 OT
- North Carolina 35-38
- @Miami FL 45-21
- @Boston College 38-31
- Virginia Tech 24-7
- @Pittsburgh 26-28
- Wake Forest 34-31
Duke was just about the most consistent team around. Their opening 30-0 win over Temple might have been as good as they got, unless it was their 45-21 win at Miami. Other than that, they played about the same each time out, dipping a bit in the overtime loss at Georgia Tech maybe. But which is better a 34-31 win over Wake Forest or a 28-26 loss at Pitt? Those were their last two games, and they were just as good or better than the rest of the season. The Blue Devils won 4 of their first 5 and 4 of their last 5.
UCF's season (9-4) • SOS: #69
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1
- South Carolina St 56-10
- Louisville 14-20
- @Florida Atlantic 40-14
- Georgia Tech 27-10
- SMU 41-19
- Temple 70-13
- @East Carolina 13-34
- Cincinnati 25-21
- @Memphis 35-28
- @#16 Tulane 38-31
- Navy 14-17
- @South Florida 46-39
- @#16 Tulane 28-45
UCF lost early at home to Louisville and looked like another Group of Five bust. But the next four games painted the team as a powerhouse on its way to a 12-1 season as American Conference champs, especially the gaudy 70-13 win over Temple (compare to Duke's 30-0 win over the Owls) and 27-10 win over Georgia Tech (who beat the Blue Devils in overtime). But the East Carolina loss rocked them, and though they won three more after—including a win over #16 Tulane—they played poorly in their last three games—including a return loss at Tulane for the AAC title. The Knights were 3-3 against bowl teams and 1-1 against the top 25—splitting 2 games at #16 Tulane.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
UCF #2 WR Ryan O'Keefe has entered the transfer portal, as has backup QB Mikey Keene (647, 6:1) who started a few games in mid-season. On defense starting LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste is portal-bound too.
In addition, QB John Rhys Plumlee has a hamstring injury and probably won't be 100% for the bowl. The team did get two weeks off during which time his injury healed quite a bit.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Duke is perhaps a surprise favorite, since it's so rare Duke is even in a bowl game
- Location: Annapolis, MD. Neutral though Duke is closer, but the football team doesn't have the basketball team's rabid fans.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Central Florida is at the point in their program where this season was a bit disappointing. Duke hasn't been bowling since 2018 and went 5-7, 2-9, and 3-9 since then, so they'll be psyched to be at a bowl game, especially the seniors who have waited 4 years for this.
- Momentum: UCF played poorly in losing 2 of their last three games, while Duke played well in all three, going 2-1.
Duke has more momentum, and much more motivation. The existence and significance of the former is questioned, but the latter is pretty much everything during bowl season.
Final analysis
UCF is the better team for the full season, at full strength. But they're missing a few key players while Duke hasn't been bitten by the tranfer-portal bug. And the Blue Devils played stronger down the stretch. So it's understandable that the Blue Devils are favored.
Not only that but they have a reason to be psyched up for the game. Central Florida is almost have a down year for the program, or at least it's not good enough for several key players to want to play.
Between the losses UCF has to the portal, Duke's motivation, and the Blue Devils much better play down the stretch while UCF stalled, we take Duke to win in Annapolis.
Prediction: Duke 34, UCF 24
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
Comments