View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN
When: Wednesday, December 28 at 5:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Kansas Jayhawks (6-6) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6)
Yes, it's yet another 6-6 bowl, but it's the best kind of 6-6 bowl—two very evenly matched Power Five teams with a good comeback/scrappy underdog storyline.
Vegas line/spread: Arkansas by 2 1/2* (over/under 69.5)
Arkansas is a slim favorite, probably because no one can believe Kansas is back in a bowl game. The line has held pretty steady, down a bit from 3 points and the over/under staying the same for weeks before edging up 1/2 point on game day. *Apparently right before kickoff the line moved to -1.5 for Arkansas. The last line I saw was 2.5 so by that, a bet placed on Kansas would have won, but since the closing line would make that a loss, I'll split the difference and call a push.
Strength power rating: #36 Kansas 36, #38 Arkansas 35
Best/Worst removed: Kansas 36-35
Turnover corrected: Arkansas 36-35
The Strength power rating favors Kansas here, but not by much. In fact if we correct for turnovers it flips back to Arkansas by a point. We see this as anybody's game.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3 Spread |
| Arkansas | 50% | 41% |
| Kansas | 50% | 59% |
These teams rank so close in Strength that the game-comparison system deadlocks 72 to 72; naturally against the spread the oddsmakers favorite in this case is going to fall short.
When Kansas has the ball
| Kansas scoring offense(adj): #20 |
Arkansas scoring defense(adj): #55 |
| Kansas rushing offense(raw): #34 |
Arkansas rushing defense(raw): #104 |
| Kansas passing offense(raw): #64 | Arkansas passing defense(raw): #118 |
Kansas has a great offense, there's no doubt about that. And Arkansas will have their hands full because they give up quite a few points. Their defense isn't nearly as bad as their rush/pass yardages suggest (since these are raw figures and Arkansas plays in the SEC). But Kansas will be able to move the ball on offense, especially since Arkansas' two top tacklers, linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool, are in the transfer pool, and their defensive coordinator was hired away.
When Arkansas has the ball
| Arkansas scoring offense(adj): #23 |
Kansas scoring defense(adj): #78 |
| Arkansas rushing offense(raw): #9 |
Kansas rushing defense(raw): #116 |
| Arkansas passing offense(raw): #64 | Kansas passing defense(raw): #103 |
Arkansas has an offense every bit as good as Kansas does, and Kansas has a weaker defense, with similarly poor rushing and passing defense numbers for the Razorbacks to exploit, particularly with their running game. They'll need to focus even more on running the ball since Jadon Haselwood, their #2 receiver, is in the transfer portal.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Kansas: #109 Arkansas: #50
Arkansas ranks about average in special teams, while Kansas is pretty weak.
Kansas's season (6-6) • SOS: #8
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-6
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-3
- Tennessee Tech 56-10
- @West Virginia 55-42 OT
- @Houston 48-30
- Duke 35-27
- Iowa St 14-11
- #3 TCU 31-38
- @Oklahoma 42-52
- @Baylor 23-35
- Oklahoma St 37-16
- @Texas Tech 28-43
- #20 Texas 14-55
- @#9 Kansas St 27-47
Kansas' first game was a shock to everyone as they dominated Tennessee Tech 56-10. True, they beat an FCS team, but that magnitude of win for Kansas was unheard of since the Mark Mangino days. Even more shocking? Back to back road wins over West Virginia (with an overtime TD + pick 6) and Houston. Wins over Duke and Iowa State put them at 5-0 and they were dreaming.
The dream almost came true against TCU but the Horned Frogs prevailed 38-10. In all the Jayhawks lost six of their last 7 games (all 7 games against bowl teams) but their 37-16 win over Oklahoma State gave them the magic 6th win an a bowl berth, their first since 2008.
Arkansas's season (6-6) • SOS: #30
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- Cincinnati 31-24
- #19 South Carolina 44-30
- Missouri St 38-27
- =Texas A&M 21-23
- #5 Alabama 26-49
- @#22 Mississippi St 17-40
- @Brigham Young 52-35
- @Auburn 41-27
- Liberty 19-21
- #17 LSU 10-13
- Mississippi 42-27
- @Missouri 27-29
Arkansas beat Cincinnati in the opener, a good litmus test for how good they could be. Two more wins didn't add anything to their argument however, especially the 38-27 win over Missouri State. The Razorbacks lost to rival Texas A&M, to Alabama, and Mississippi State and fell to 3-3. They pulled back to 5-3 but lost to Liberty and LSU. Beating Ole Miss gave them a 6th win but by that point the season was mediocre at best and they fell to Missouri, meaning they lost 3 of their last 4 games.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Arkansas' portal transfers: #2 WR Jadon Haselwood (702 yards); #1 tackler LB Drew Sanders (103 tackles, 9.5 sacks); #2 tackler Bumper Pool (92 tackles); backup QB Malik Hornsby (1:2); backup DB Myles Slusher
Kansas' only transfers are a few players who didn't contribute much this season. On the injury front, #1 tackler safety Kenny Logan (96 tackles) has a foot injury and is unlikely to play. They also have a few players few questionable on the O-line and kicker Jacob Borcila. RB Daniel Hishaw (#3 w/259 yards) has been out since October and was rumored to be returning for the bowl game but will not.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Not surprising that Arkansas is favored over Kansas, who has no bowl experience in the last 15 years and lost 6 of their last 7 games.
- Location: Memphis Tennessee, neutral site
- Coaching: No changes at head coach but Arkansas' DC Barry Odom was hired away to be head coach of UNLV
- Motivation: Kansas is obviously motivated for their first bowl game in 15 years. Arkansas? They went 8-4 last year but had four losing season before that, so a bowl is not assumed. Still, the amount of players entering the portal and not playing in the bowl suggests the team isn't too keyed up.
- Momentum: Neither team has anything resembling momentum, and Kansas has negative momentum if anything after losing 6 of their last seven.
Arkansas has no momentum and probably no motivation. Kansas has tons of motivation but no momentum. First of all, motivation outweighs momentum 10 to 1. Second...it's weird. Kansas almost has so much negative momentum that they it can go back to positive. Not literally, but for years I saw 6-6 teams enter the bowl season after starting 5-1 or 4-2 and finishing 1-5 or 2-4. And I always picked these teams to lose because that means their season went to shit, right? How can that team possibly do anything but lose?
Yet time and time again, these awful-momentum 6-6 teams would inexplicably win, even against 9-3 teams. It's either a different psychological thing, that they decide they have nothing to lose and might as well give it their all one last time, or their opponent keeps hearing "they've dropped 5 of their last 6 games" over and over and takes them lightly.
Why wouldn't Arkansas take Kansas lightly? They're a flash in the pan that hasn't been winning since the current Arkansas players were 6 years old. Kansas doesn't win! And they've lost 6 of 7. Arkansas is probably insulted that they are only a 3 point favorite, it will be easy.
Final analysis
If the Kansas of the first half of the season could show up, they'd win easily. But Kansas hasn't been the same, especially over the last three games, and it's mainly the defense which has been worse. Arkansas is up and down, played well at the end but still lost 3 of 4.
Arkansas is missing a lot of players, enough to make a difference. On offense a receiver which probably doesn't hurt them much, but on defense their two top tacklers are gone along with their defensive coordinator. According to one article, Arkansas is down to 48 scholarship players—25 fewer than normal. That opens a lot of doors for Kansas, who has only 6 portal transfers on the entire squad though they will miss a few more due to injury.
Kansas will be happy to take whatever they can. They're going to come in fired up, with a complete squad, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if win in a shootout, from a combination of enthusiasm and facing a less-than-motivated and heavily depleted Arkansas team. Scoring will be pretty high, as they'll give up a lot of points, too, as it's mainly their defense that suffered late in the year, but they won't give up if they get behind, whereas I think Arkansas will.
Prediction: Kansas 42, Arkansas 35
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
Comments