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Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV
When: Saturday, December 17 at 2:30 pm ET
TV: ABC
#14 Oregon State Beavers (9-3) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)
Two Power Five schools, one ranked, one 6-6, is it a mismatch or is there more to it?
Vegas line/spread: Oregon St by 8 1/2 (over/under 53)
Vegas seems to think this really is a mismatch, as the Beavers were solid 10 point favorites which stayed steady until game day. The over/under is up from 52.
Strength power rating: #18 Oregon St 30, #29 Florida 26
Best/Worst removed: Oregon St 31-26
Turnover corrected: Oregon St 31-24
Our Strength power rating sees the game being a lot closer than the oddsmakers do, with Oregon State favored by about 4 points. Correcting for turnovers—which are essentially random—stretches the gap to about 7, closer but still short of what Vegas sees.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -8.5 Spread |
| Oregon St | 62% | 43% |
| Florida | 38% | 57% |
Our power rating comfortably favors the Beavers to win, but it's just as comfortable taking the Gators against the spread.
When Oregon St has the ball
| Oregon St scoring offense(adj): #44 |
Florida scoring defense(adj): #38 |
| Oregon St rushing offense(raw): #27 |
Florida rushing defense(raw): #101 |
| Oregon St passing offense(raw): #103 | Florida passing defense(raw): #89 |
The Beavers have a decent but not amazing offense, which describes Florida's defense, too. Both are good for the 131-team FBS, but neither stand out in the Power Five. The big contrast, though, occurs when Oregon State runs the ball where they are very productive and Florida is poor at stopping it. Note that the yardage stats are raw—unadjusted for opponents—and Florida played one of the toughest schedules in the country. That's how they can be in the bottom 40 in yardage stats but in the top 40 in scoring defense (which is opponent-adjusted). Still, the ground game looks good for Oregon State, who has a number of solid RBs.
When Florida has the ball
| Florida scoring offense(adj): #24 |
Oregon St scoring defense(adj): #13 |
| Florida rushing offense(raw): #16 |
Oregon St rushing defense(raw): #20 |
| Florida passing offense(raw): #69 | Oregon St passing defense(raw): #75 |
Here's where the real quality play in this game will take place—Florida's top 25 offense vs. Oregon State's top 25 defense. Likewise both are top 20 in rushing offense vs. rushing defense, and the passing numbers line up, too. It's a very even matchup on this side of the ball. Like Oregon State, Florida has a number of good runners, one of those being QB Anthony Richardson who is foregoing the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft, a big problem for the Gators offense, and a big reason Florida is a double-digit underdog. Since 2nd string QB Jalen Kitna was arrested and dismissed from the team, that leaves 3rd stringer Jack Miller to run the offense.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Oregon St: #19 Florida: #67
The Beavers have a noted advantaged on special teams.
Oregon St's season (9-3) • SOS: #49
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- Boise St 34-17
- @Fresno St 35-32
- Montana St 68-28
- #10 Southern Cal 14-17
- @#8 Utah 16-42
- @Stanford 28-27
- Washington St 24-10
- Colorado 42-9
- @#12 Washington 21-24
- California 38-10
- @Arizona St 31-7
- #15 Oregon 38-34
Oregon State has played pretty consistently whether winning or losing; their 42-16 road loss to Utah rates the same as their subsequent 1-point win over Stanford, and their 42-9 win over Colorado was followed by an equivalent performance at Washington, a 3-point loss. The Beavers finished with three strong wins, including a rivalry-week triumph over Oregon, the only top 25 team they beat in four attempts. Outside of the top 25 though, they were 3-0 vs. bowl-bound teams.
Florida's season (6-6) • SOS: #7
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-4
- #8 Utah 29-26
- Kentucky 16-26
- South Florida 31-28
- @#6 Tennessee 33-38
- Eastern Washington 52-17
- Missouri 24-17
- #17 LSU 35-45
- =#1 Georgia 20-42
- @Texas A&M 41-24
- #19 South Carolina 38-6
- @Vanderbilt 24-31
- @#13 Florida St 38-45
Florida, however, was not a consistent team by any measure. They actually beat Utah in the first game of the season, something Oregon State couldn't come close to doing. And though they fell to Kentucky and barely beat South Florida, their game against Tennessee was pretty great in retrospect, even in losing. Their next four games included decent performances whether winning, or losing to LSU and Georgia, then the Gators clobbered Texas A&M and crushed South Carolina right before the Gamecocks became a great team. There's clearly a lot of talent on this team that can rise to the occasion at unpredictable times or, as seen in the Vanderbilt loss, fall flat. The FSU loss was a spirited effort on the road, so they haven't given up their season. The bottom line is that Florida played a killer schedule with six top 25 teams, including the Pac-12 champs.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Florida's starting QB Anthony Richardson is skipping the bowl game, and backup QB Jalen Kitna has been dismissed from the team. On defense starting lineman Gervon Dexter is opting out. A number of receivers are listed as questionable for the game.
Oregon State's Chance Nolan, backup QB, is transferring, while TE Luke Musgrave (#6 receiver) is opting out. #2 WR Anthony Gould is listed as questionable.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Oregon State is a big favorite, and sometimes big favorites fall flat in bowl games due to overconfidence. That won't happen here since Oregon State will have respect for their SEC opponent.
- Location: The game is a neutral site, but it's much closer to Oregon State, while being three time zones away from Gainesville.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: No major advantage seen.
- Momentum: From last season, Florida remained the same while Oregon State added a few wins. The Beavers also have better in-season momentum winning their last three while Florida dropped their final two games.
Both teams should be at least fairly happy with this game and the Las Vegas location. Florida gets a ranked opponent and Oregon State plays an SEC foe with great history. Neither team was in line for much greater things, both having been eliminated from Playoff consideration long ago. We do see some momentum on Oregon State's side and the time zone is to their favor. Florida's QB pulling out seems to be a personal decision, not reflective of any general malaise on the team, as other star players have said they will be playing.
Final analysis
Oregon State is a consistent team that will always deliver a steady performance. Florida was quite erratic this year and will be even more so without their starting quarterback (or the backup). This will probably see them perform on the downside on offense. The question is how will the defense do? Can it slow down Oregon State enough to win the game? Defensive End Dexter Gavin said he'll play despite declaring for the NFL, so maybe that side of the ball does all right.
Oregon State has a lot of advantages here but Florida might rise to the occasion. They won't be surprised by anything the Beavers do, as half their schedule was top 25 teams and they beat two of them, including the Pac-12 champ. It's going to be tough playing with their 3rd string quarterback but he may rise to the occasion, and the defense is sound and can keep the game close. Everyone's writing Florida off here and that's when teams often surprise, maybe not winning, but keeping thing closer than expected.
Note: After investigating teams whose QB has opted out of bowl games, we see it's a pretty big deal—at least for teams that are passing-based, as all the examples we investigated were. It shouldn't be as big of a deal for a team like Florida. But we're adding a bit to the impact on Florida's offense.
Prediction: Oregon State 24, Florida 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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