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L.A. Bowl in Inglewood, CA
Time: Saturday, December 17 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ABC
Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) vs. Washington State Cougars (7-5)
A very west coast battle in a west coast town. It's the Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl.
Vegas line/spread: Fresno State by 4 1/2 (over/under 53)
The early line had Fresno a slim 1 1/2 point favorite playing in Inglewood; that jumped to 4 1/2 on game day, with the over under down from 54 1/2.
Strength power rating: #32 Washington State 27, #65 Fresno State 20
Best/Worst removed: Washington State 27-21
Turnover corrected: Washington State 27-21
A rare big difference between the Strength power rating projection and the (early 1.5 point) Vegas line; Strength gives the win to Washington State by a touchdown even after we give Fresno partial home field advantage for playing in-state. It narrows a bit more with the adjustments for extreme games or turnovers, but it's still clearly Cougars. Why are the oddsmakers so high on the Bulldogs? Let's find out.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -1.5 Spread |
| Fresno State | 39% | 27% |
| Washington St | 61% | 73% |
Our game-comparison system shows Washington State a decent sized favorite, though Fresno wins about 2 in 5 times. With the spread favoring the Bulldogs though, the Cougars cover almost 2/3 of the time against -1.5, and almost 3 in 4 against the late spread. Note that this is comparing games during the season when team were all full strength. Opt outs and transfers have really changed the bowl season, metrics like "how good was the team during the season?" are becoming obsolete!
When Fresno State has the ball
| Fresno St scoring offense(adj): #54 |
Washington St scoring defense(adj): #22 |
| Fresno St rushing offense(raw): #96 |
Washington St rushing defense(raw): #35 |
| Fresno St passing offense(raw): #27 | Washington St passing defense(raw): #112 |
The advantage goes to Washington State here with their top 25 scoring defense. Fresno State's offense isn't bad but doesn't measure up when corrected for opposition. Where they do seem to have a big opportunity is when passing the ball, as they're #27 in raw passing yards and Washington State's pass D is #112. That looks bad, but these are raw numbers which can already be misleading, and pass defense per-game stats don't tell the whole story. The Cougars are a much-better #73 in pass efficiency defense—though that's still good news for QB Jake Haener, who threw for 2,616 yards in 8 1/2 games.
When Washington St has the ball
| Washington St scoring offense(adj): #51 |
Fresno St scoring defense(adj): #60 |
| Washington St rushing offense(raw): #113 |
Fresno St rushing defense(raw): #78 |
| Washington St passing offense(raw): #35 | Fresno St passing defense(raw): #23 |
Washington State isn't great on offense but neither is Fresno the best on D. They're about evenly matched but unlike when Fresno State has the ball, the rush/pass matchups here don't show a discrepancy. The Cougars are best passing the ball, but Fresno State defends the pass well (and their passing efficiency defense ranking of #10 really backs that up). So QB Cameron Ward might not have an easy time moving the ball, and the Cougar run game isn't very good.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Fresno State: #20 Washington St: #42
Fresno State has solid special teams, maybe something to consider though Washington State isn't bad in ESPN's composite.
Fresno State's season (9-4) • SOS: #80
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- Cal Poly SLO 35-7
- #14 Oregon St 32-35
- @#10 USC 17-45
- @Connecticut 14-19
- @Boise St 20-40
- San Jose St 17-10
- @New Mexico 41-9
- San Diego St 32-28
- Hawai`i 55-13
- @UNLV 37-30
- @Nevada 41-14
- Wyoming 30-0
- @Boise St 28-16
Fresno State went 1-4 early on, consisting of a tepid win over San Luis-Obispo, losses to two Pac-12 teams, a shocking loss to UConn, and a 40-20 drubbing to Boise State. Ultimately the Oregon State loss was a good performance and USC almost made the Playoff, while UConn became a bowl team, and as for Fresno they rattled off 8 straight wins culminating in a revenge win at Boise State, 28-16 for the Mountain West title.
Starting QB Jake Haener was hurt against USC and didn't play again until game 8 against San Diego State. It's true they played their worst two games without him but they were already recovering by the time he retook the reigns, so it's hard to make an exact story of their comeback with him as the hero, suffice it to say the 2nd half of the season has been much better. Despite Fresno's poor SOS ranking they've played 8 bowl teams and beat half of them (counting Boise twice of course).
The three non-conference losses is a big deal according to a study on bowl games. Does it matter that two were top 25 teams and their QB was hurt? That should probably be a mitigating factor.
Washington St's season (7-5) • SOS: #46
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-5
- Idaho 24-17
- @Wisconsin 17-14
- Colorado St 38-7
- #15 Oregon 41-44
- California 28- 9
- @#10 USC 14-30
- @#14 Oregon St 10-24
- #8 Utah 17-21
- @Stanford 52-14
- Arizona St 28-18
- @Arizona 31-20
- #12 Washington 33-51
Washington State started off 4-1, lost three to top 25 teams, won three over teams with losing records, then stumbled badly at home against rival Washington to end the season. Their only bowl-team win came in the early upset (at the time) of Wisconsin on the road; they're 1-5 against bowl teams but the 5 losses are all to ranked teams. Can't get much of a handle on exactly where this team fits when they beating losing teams and lose to the top 25.
While the Cougars were undefeated in non-conference play they also lost 3 home games. In the same study that values non-conference win percentage, the #2 criteria is home win percentage, where the Cougars are just 57%. Again, all three losses were to top 25 teams so does it mean anything?
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Washington State's #1 WR De'Zhaun Striblin (602 yards) and #3 Donovan Ollie (491) both hit the transfer portal late. #4 WR Renard Bell is questionable. On defense they're missing three key LBs: #1 tackler Daiyan Henley (106 tackles, 4 sacks), #4 tackler Francisco Mauigoa (60, 3.5 sacks), and #6 Travion Brown (49, 1.5).
For Fresno State, #5 WR Josh Kelly is transferring.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Washington State might be a bit surprised at being the underdog here, given that they're the Power Five team. Possibly a motivating factor, though Fresno has the better record and it's a close spread. It certainly means the Cougars won't take the Bulldogs lightly.
- Location: An in-state game is favorable for Fresno State, but it's not full home field advantage of course. And given California's size they aren't really playing all that close to home.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Both are probably glad to be going bowling and didn't expect a better outcome for some time. Fresno State especially must be psyched to be 9-4 after starting 1-4.
- Momentum: Fresno State wins this one hands-down with an 8-game win streak ending with 3 really good performances. Washington State lost 51-33 at home in their last game. Compared to last year both teams had very similar outcomes to their 2021 campaigns.
If momentum is real then Fresno State is a happy team, winner of 8 straight games while Washington State ended on a lousy note at home to arch-rival Washington. They're probably happier about their season's outcome given their poor start. And they're playing in-state. Edge goes to Fresno State here, and particularly with all the transfers and opt-outs emerging late from Washington State.
Final analysis
You can see from the rushing/passing offense/defense matchups why the oddsmakers have moved toward Fresno State. The Bulldogs pass well, and QB Jake Haener has been hot lately, while Washington State's pass defense is mediocre at best. Meanwhile the Cougars want to pass the ball but Fresno has solid pass defense. Overall in scoring offense and defense Washington State has the edge, but that seems to disappear—at least partially—when you look closer.
Interestingly the teams have two common opponents, and they lost all four games. Oregon State beat Fresno 35-32 and Washington State 24-10; USC beat Fresno 45-17 and Washington State 30-14. Total margin of defeat? 31 points vs. 30 points. Or maybe 31 vs. 23 if we correct for playing home vs. away. Still pretty close.
In terms of motivation and psychology Fresno State also gains an edge. Washington State doesn't have the negative profile of a team that doesn't want to show up, though, which is what needs to happen if you're picking the winner just based on psychology (though after all those transfers came in, maybe so...). Still, the Bulldogs look like they're on a roll.
But Fresno State's 25% win rate in non-conference games raises red flags from a study done using AI and decision trees; non-conference winning percentage was by far the most significant predictor of all variables. Meanwhile Washington State skates by at 100%. We noted that two of Fresno's losses were to top 25 teams and their starting QB was hurt during 2 games, but that model had an 86% prediction rate for picking winners.
Non-conference winning percentage is usually better for Power Five teams, so it's not unusual that it's a good criteria to pick winners. But to reach 86% there has to be something more it's revealing. Bowl teams that lose their non-conference games tend to win their conference games, so maybe they play worse against unfamiliar opponents—including their bowl opponent? Hard to say why this works; there's also the chance that it's a fluke outcome. Note that in the same paper, the #2 criteria is home winning percentage, and Washington State fails that miserably at 57% to Fresno's 80%. And the #5 criterial is a team's record over its last 7 games, another measure favoring the Bulldogs.
But it's interesting that even in Fresno State's great 8-game win streak, Washington State's last 8 games rate better overall, and would "win" 3 out of 5 cross-comparisons over that span. We have to remember when comparing passing and rushing raw figures that the Cougars have played a much tougher schedule. I'm willing to move the teams closer for all the small advantages that Fresno has in this game but not quite enough to get them all the way there.
Update: All of Washington State's receiver and linebacker transfers have hollowed out their offense and defense. Pretty much all of the analysis above should be rewritten, and there's not much precedent to judge the team that will actually take the field. The main positive about Washington State was their #22 scoring defense, and without their 3 starting linebackers (they have a 4-2-5 defense but three key linebackers that play a lot) they look really weak in the middle of the defense, and the backups at LB have played a fraction of the time of those three (40 tackles vs. 215). I had picked Washington State as an underdog before, but now I have to go with Fresno. I don't like changing my picks even with new information but based on both motivation and schematics it now looks like the Bulldogs should win, possibly pretty big.
Prediction: Fresno State 34, Washington State 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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