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Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA
When: Friday, December 23 at 3:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Houston Cougars (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6)
Not the best destination bowl but it got two teams that will create a lot of local interest.
Vegas line/spread: Houston by 5 (over/under 56)
Houston was around a touchdown favorite early, up from 6 1/2; the line dropped to 5 on game day. The over has come down from 60.5.
Strength power rating: #55 Houston 33, #76 UL-Lafayette 26
Best/Worst removed: Houston 31-27
Turnover corrected: Houston 35-23
How's this for agreement—our Strength power rating favors Houston by 6.57 points, which we have to round up for the score estimate of course. Going just by power ratings this isn't one to bet on.
Removing both teams high and low game scores creates a closer game, as Houston loses a huge win. Now it's a 4-point edge for the Cougars.
And finally, there's a stark difference when we correct for the influence of turnovers on scoring. Houston has had very bad luck with turnovers and Louisiana very good luck. In a zero-luck situation Houston becomes a whopping 12 point favorite.
So take your pick, you can justify anything from 4 to 12 points based only on the power ratings, not even getting into psychology or injuries, etc.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6.5 Spread |
| Houston | 59% | 47.2% |
| ULL | 41% | 52.8% |
A somewhat interesting result from the game-comparison angle. Houston clearly wins most games straight up, but against the spread they cover just 47% which is interesting because the average (mean) score margin is 6.57, almost exactly equal to the spread. You'd expect 50/50, but as we'll see Houston has one monster game that stretches their average game score, but doesn't matter as much when picking to win or vs. the spread in a given comparison.
When Houston has the ball
| Houston scoring offense(adj): #32 |
ULL scoring defense(adj): #75 |
| Houston rushing offense(raw): #79 |
ULL rushing defense(raw): #51 |
| Houston passing offense(raw): #7 | ULL passing defense(raw): #59 |
Houston has the advantage here with a nearly-top 25 offense based on a (raw) top ten passing game. They're up against a mediocre defense with a very average pass defense. QB Clayton Tune has 3,845 passing yards and a 37:10 ratio, and he's also the top rusher with 491 net yards. Receiver Nathaniel Dell has 103 catches for 1,354 yards. Note that Louisiana-Lafayette has 15 interceptions on the season, 10th in the nation.
When ULL has the ball
| ULL scoring offense(adj): #81 |
Houston scoring defense(adj): #85 |
| ULL rushing offense(raw): #76 |
Houston rushing defense(raw): #58 |
| ULL passing offense(raw): #75 | Houston passing defense(raw): #126 |
The Cajuns might be in over their head on defense but when they have the ball they're capable of scoring on Houston. In particular Houston's pass defense looks vulnerable; even though these are raw numbers not adjusted for opponents, #126 in the nation is just bad. QB Chandler Fields is starting again after missing the middle of the season, as Ben Wooldridge is out with an injury. Neither is that great, and Fields has under 1,000 yards for the season as the Cajuns ran a 2-QB system even when he was the starter early in the year. Houston's pass D might allow him to shine, though.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Houston: #34 ULL: #16
Both teams have solid special teams play overall.
Houston's season (7-5) • SOS: #71
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1
- @#25 UTSA 37-35 3OT
- @Texas Tech 30-33 2OT
- Kansas 30-48
- Rice 34-27
- #16 Tulane 24-27 OT
- @Memphis 33-32
- @Navy 38-20
- South Florida 42-27
- @SMU 63-77
- Temple 43-36
- @East Carolina 42-3
- Tulsa 30-37
Houston played three overtime games and a total of six overtime periods, going 1-2 with a win and a loss against a top 25 team. They lost both games they played against Big Twelve opponents. And they made history with SMU in totaling 140 points in regulation in the SMU game, unfortunately for them a loss. The penultimate game, East Carolina, was by far their best, and their final one—a loss to Tulsa—was probably their worst. The Cougars had 2 non-conference losses and a surprising 3 home losses, but with just a little bit better luck could have been 9-3.
ULL's season (6-6) • SOS: #104
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- SE Louisiana 24-7
- Eastern Michigan 49-21
- @Rice 21-33
- @Louisiana-Monroe 17-21
- South Alabama 17-20
- @Marshall 23-13
- Arkansas St 38-18
- @Southern Miss 24-39
- #24 Troy 17-23
- Georgia Southern 36-17
- @#13 Florida St 17-49
- @Texas State 41-13
It was an up and down season, where Louisiana played 6 good games and 6 bad ones and rightfully finished 6-6. Their schedule was mostly easy but they did face two top 25 teams, doing fairly well against Troy but getting battered at Florida State. They had arguably their best game at the very end of an up and down year.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Current/Co-starting QB Ben Wooldridge is out with an injury for UL-Lafayette.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Houston is the favorite but not a huge one; they might think they deserve a tougher opponent or a better bowl game but let's face it, they were 7-5.
- Location: Although playing in-state is usually a factor worthy of partial home field advantage, in this case Houston is just as close to Shreveport as Lafayette is, so this game more closely resembles the "neutral site" games like Oklahoma-Texas and Florida-Georgia, which are played in Dallas and Jacksonville respectively.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Houston might have a motivation issue after last year's 12-2 season fell to a 7-5 mark this year, though if we're talking about last year, then how does Louisiana-Lafayette feel going 6-6 after a 13-1 season?
- Momentum: They played poorly down the stretch in 3 of the last 4, but had their best game in the other. Louisiana was up and down all year so it's hard to know what to make of their solid performance in their last game, though it shows they wanted to make 6-6 to be in a bowl.
Neither team has far to travel to this bowl, and it's a good thing because otherwise they might not make the effort. I don't think either team is extremely apathetic about the bowl game but neither seems all that psyched after winning 12 and 13 games last year and only a total of 13 between the two teams this season. Of the two, UL-Lafayette probably has lower expectations in general, after all they were 12-1 and played in Louisiana last year too. We'll give them a small motivational edge, and who knows, maybe they're really fired up but it's hard to imagine.
Final analysis
Louisiana-Lafayette didn't really win any upsets except maybe Marshall. They probably should have beaten Rice and ULM, too. So they'd have to reach higher than they have so far to beat Houston. It's not likely they are extremely motivated by a 6-6 finish, at least not to the degree I think they'd have to be to beat the Cougars.
ULL has 15 interceptions on the year which is a danger for pass-happy Houston. But Clayton Tune has just 10 picks which is pretty good for 469 attempts. And it's possible turnovers give Houston an extra edge, as they're factored into the game scores as if they're a given, and really they are mostly random events. Pulling out the effect of turnovers gives Houston a bigger edge as we saw above. That said, if the Cajuns do get picks it's going to be a long afternoon for the Cougars.
Houston's pass defense leaves a lot to be desired so it's not like they're going to pass all over Louisiana and not have it happen right back. With both teams playing sort of unmotivated defense it could be another SMU game for Houston, though against a much less talented offense. The Mustangs are the #6 passing team in raw numbers, so the #75 passing team won't put up 77 points on them, particularly since they lack a good QB. But ULL's pass D is better than SMU's so don't expect 63 from Houston either. We still take the Cougars in what should hopefully be an entertaining bowl even if neither team gets all that psyched about it.
Prediction: Houston 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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