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Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID
When: Tuesday, December 20 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) vs. San José State Spartans (7-4)
Two teams not normally associated with potatoes meet in Boise.
Vegas line/spread: San Jose State by 4 1/2 (over/under 53.5)
The Spartans were about a field goal favorite early; the line stayed pretty steady until game day, with the o/u ranging between 52.5 and 54.5.
Strength power rating: #99 San Jose State 30, #128 Eastern Mich 24
Best/Worst removed: San Jose State 29-24
Turnover corrected: San Jose State 28-26
The Spartans are a solid favorite by our Strength power rating unless you correct for turnovers; SJSU has benefitted more than almost anyone from turnovers and if that largesse is subtracted out, they're a lot worse and become only a 2 point favorite; they go from covering to not covering if they don't get their regular share of turnovers.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3.5 Spread |
| San Jose St | 58% | 52% |
| Eastern Mich | 42% | 48% |
San Jose State is favored in most of the game comparisons and still favored—but just barely—to cover the small spread.
When Eastern Michigan has the ball
| Eastern Mich scoring offense(adj): #95 |
San Jose St scoring defense(adj): #77 |
| Eastern Mich rushing offense(raw): #74 |
San Jose St rushing defense(raw): #28 |
| Eastern Mich passing offense(raw): #85 | San Jose St passing defense(raw): #45 |
Neither team is great in this matchup, so maybe it's best to say that Eastern Michigan's offense is a bit poorer than the Spartan defense. San Jose State's rush/pass defense numbers are exaggerated by their poor SOS but both are probably better than Eastern Michigan's offensive yardage output. There's no indication that the Eagles will find a great way to move the ball, nor that San Jose State has a way to shut them down completely.
When San Jose State has the ball
| San Jose St scoring offense(adj): #79 |
Eastern Mich scoring defense(adj): #114 |
| San Jose St rushing offense(raw): #125 |
Eastern Mich rushing defense(raw): #80 |
| San Jose St passing offense(raw): #34 | Eastern Mich passing defense(raw): #39 |
Again, San Jose State is not great here but Eastern Michigan is so bad that the Spartans should have decent success scoring points. Since San Jose State is so bad at running the ball we'll focus on the passing game, where they rank pretty high in raw yardage and Eastern Michigan ranks pretty well in pass defense. Both teams SOS is so bad that this comparison can't be trusted. The Eagles are #65 in pass efficiency defense which is definitely a better metric. San Jose is #53 in pass efficiency. So the comparison doesn't change much. QB Chevan Cordeiro has 2,884 yards and a 20:4 ratio this year so far.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Eastern Mich: #46 San Jose St: #128
This might be worth looking into, not because the Eagles are great in special teams (they're not) but because San Jose State is so bad. The elements of special teams are: kickoffs and kickoff coverage; punts and punt coverage; field goals (and extra points). The kicker is the most important of these, and San Jose State's Taran Schive has made 12 of 17 FGs this year, which isn't bad. The team is #103 in punting with a 39.9 yard average and #122 in net punting at 35.0. On kickoff defense the average return allowed is only 15.7 yards but they've allowed 2 touchdown returns. And they only average 17 yards per kickoff return themselves. Really, added together that doesn't look like the 4th worst special teams but it doesn't sound great, especially the 35 yard net punting average, which harms them in the field position battle. And it appears to hurt them on offense more than defense, looking at FPI's numbers compared to ours.
Eastern Mich's season (8-4) • SOS: #131
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 0-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- Eastern Kentucky 42-34
- @Louisiana-Lafayette 21-49
- @Arizona St 30-21
- Buffalo 31-50
- Massachusetts 20-13
- @Western Michigan 45-23
- Northern Illinois 10-39
- @Ball St 20-16
- Toledo 24-27
- @Akron 34-28
- @Kent St 31-24
- Central Michigan 38-19
The first thing to note is Eastern Michigan's SOS rank of #131, worst in the nation. And that's not all—their rating is 0.00, meaning they haven't played an above-average team all season. How did they play three bowl teams then? All three—ULL, Buffalo, even 8-5 Toledo—rank below-average in Strength. And the Eagles didn't beat a single winning FBS team this year. ASU was 3-9, UMass 1-11, Western Mich 5-7, Ball State 5-7, Akron 2-10, Kent State 5-7, and Central Mich 4-8.
And as bad as their schedule is, they still managed to lose three home games, including to 3-9 Northern Illinois by a score of 39-10. They also lost 49-21 to ULL and 50-31 to Buffalo, but at least those were winning teams. The Eagles didn't play nearly that bad over their last 5 games where they went 4-1, but they didn't beat any good teams over that stretch either.
San Jose St's season (7-4) • SOS: #124
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- Portland St 21-17
- @Auburn 16-24
- Western Michigan 34-6
- @Wyoming 33-16
- UNLV 40-7
- @Fresno St 10-17
- Nevada 35-28
- Colorado St 28-16
- @San Diego St 27-43
- @Utah St 31-35
- Hawai`i 27-14
As bad as Eastern Michigan's schedule is, the Spartans don't have much to brag about. They played just 4 bowl teams and beat 1 of them. They can boast that they didn't lose a home game though. Their first win over Portland State was arguably their poorest effort—by a lot—and their subsequent loss to Auburn wasn't all that bad. Overall they played best in the first half of the season, scoring 34, 33, and 40 in wins over Western Michigan, Wyoming, and UNLV. It's worth noting that the New Mexico State game was postponed and then cancelled between Fresno State and Nevada.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
None at this time.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: SJSU is a slight favorite but not enough to be overconfident.
- Location: The Boise location is a lot closer to San José, but still 11 hours away! For Eastern Michigan it's a 28 hour drive from Ypsilanti to Boise (you'd fly). Though it's quite a walk for both teams, it's two time zones for the Eagles and just one for San Jose. The weather will be more of an adjustment for the Spartans, though.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Every time this bowl comes up people ask the question: does any team like it when they end up here? Other than for the novelty of the blue field, there's not much reason to want to go to a bowl in Boise when there are teams at the same level going to the Bahamas! Particularly for San Jose State, who is coming from California, and has seen this field before (though the current team hasn't player here). San Jose State also didn't go bowling last year so they should have a bit more excitement about the situation.
- Momentum: Both teams improved their record slightly from last season. But as far as in-season play, Eastern Michigan seems to have hit their stride the last 5 games while San Jose State has played a level lower during the 2nd half of the season.
The most interesting thing here is the 2nd half of season play from both teams. The Eagles are playing their best football—certainly their most consistent—while the Spartans haven't really played a good game since beating UNLV, or maybe the Fresno loss. They look worse on both offense and defense lately.
Final analysis
San Jose State lives off turnovers. They're #3 in the nation in turnover margin. And turnovers are mostly random, that is, they don't persist. Teams that have a good turnover margin are just the tail ends of a random bell curve, and the next game could be completely different. There are teams that create conditions for turnovers and those who just have luck, but luck is a big part of everyone's turnover success story. We note that if San Jose State didn't have their turnover margin, they're about 4 points worse than before. And it determines whether they cover the spread or not in the average game against Eastern Michigan according to our power ratings. San Jose State's turnover margin comes mostly from avoiding turnovers in the passing game; Chevan Cordeira has only 4 INTs in 11 games.
San Jose State's special teams look like a concern but it's hard to put a value on their low ranking. It's really contained in the Strength power rating and parts of it find its way into Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense. Useful as a tiebreaker maybe in a dead-even analysis.
And what to make of each team's last 5 games or so, where Eastern Michigan is looking better than before, and San Jose State fading? Over just the last 5 games Eastern Michigan is a whopping 10 points better than the Spartans! But go back one game earlier for a 6-game sample and we hit the Eagles' worst game, and already Eastern Michigan's "lead" is down to 1 point. And since the Spartans didn't make a bowl last year, does their late season play matter as much?
After seeing all the advantages San Jose State has to win this game, we're going with Eastern Michigan. The fact that even with their worst game included they win the recent 6-game sample is pretty amazing. Also, San Jose State's turnover luck might end, and the fact that Eastern Michigan hasn't beaten a bowl team are the kind of things that end in a bowl game to everyone's surprise. Just watch SJSU suffer two interceptions for the first time this season. Bowl games tend to lead to "firsts" that defy the safe prediction.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 21, San Jose State 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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