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Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI
When: Saturday, December 24 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (7-5)
Not the greatest matchup but hey, it's in Hawaii what more do you want?
Vegas line/spread: San Diego State by 6 1/2 (over/under 47)
SDSU is a around a touchdown favorite. It seems this year so far there are a lot of 10-point favorites and a lot of 7-point favorites in the early games. This line has held pretty steady since early on, dipping from 7 to 6 1/2 by game day. The over/under fell from 49.5.
Strength power rating: #105 SDSU 25, #114 MTSU 23
Best/Worst removed: San Diego St 26-23
Turnover corrected: San Diego St 27-22
We show a closer game than the spread, about 2 points straight up, increasing to 3 when we throw out each team's extreme games, or to 5 when correcting for the random effect of turnovers. The latter is one reason why the Vegas spread is near 7, as this is one of the things Vegas routinely looks at—turnovers skewing the actual strength of teams.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| San Diego St | 57% | 42% |
| MTSU | 43% | 58% |
As expected from our Strength power rating results, San Diego State wins most of the game comparisons but more often than not doesn't cover against a one-touchdown spread.
When San Diego St has the ball
| San Diego St scoring offense(adj): #123 |
MTSU scoring defense(adj): #117 |
| San Diego St rushing offense(raw): #68 |
MTSU rushing defense(raw): #27 |
| San Diego St passing offense(raw): #119 | MTSU passing defense(raw): #129 |
Ok, the game is in Hawaii but I pity the people who have to watch San Diego State on offense against MTSU. Even FCS fans won't like what they see, this is almost Division II level. Any other team would salivate at facing MTSU's pass defense but it might not matter for the Aztecs who have barely over 2,000 passing yards as a team (and a 13:11 ratio). The running game is better but it's a RB-by-committee outfit with the leading rusher at 389 yards.
When MTSU has the ball
| MTSU scoring offense(adj): #91 |
San Diego St scoring defense(adj): #45 |
| MTSU rushing offense(raw): #99 |
San Diego St rushing defense(raw): #37 |
| MTSU passing offense(raw): #31 | San Diego St passing defense(raw): #35 |
At least on this side of things we get to see a pretty good defense. And a prolific passer in Chase Cunningham (2,920 yards, 19:9).
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): San Diego St: #2 MTSU: #9
Here we go—we just have to wait until in-between drives to see top-level football. The kicking, punting, and kickoff/coverage teams on both squads are where the real action is. Maybe some of these players should be starting on the offense and defense? (or maybe they already are)
SDSU's season (7-5) • SOS: #89
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- Arizona 20-38
- Idaho St 38-7
- @#8 Utah 7-35
- Toledo 17-14
- @Boise St 13-35
- Hawai`i 16-14
- @Nevada 23-7
- @Fresno St 28-32
- UNLV 14-10
- San Jose St 43-27
- @New Mexico 34-10
- Air Force 3-13
San Diego State played pretty consistent football, not too bad, and certainly never too good. The Aztecs played mediocre football whether winning or losing. They didn't embarrass themselves in any of their losses nor distinguish themselves with any big wins. What does this portend for their bowl game? Heck if I know. Basically, don't look for a big performance, and winning or losing is a coin flip.
MTSU's season (7-5) • SOS: #118
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 0-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- @James Madison 7-44
- @Colorado St 34-19
- Tennessee St 49- 6
- @Miami FL 45-31
- #25 UTSA 30-45
- @UAB 14-41
- Western Kentucky 17-35
- @UTEP 24-13
- @Louisiana Tech 24-40
- UNC-Charlotte 24-14
- Florida Atlantic 49-21
- @Florida Int'l 33-28
If MTSU had defeated James Madison 45-31 and lost to Miami 44-7, then things would have gone about as expected in the Raiders' first four games. Instead they opened with a thrashing at the hands of the Dukes, who they clearly took too lightly, and then they were taken lightly themselves by Miami in MTSU's biggest win of the season (ever?) But they were unable to capitalize on it and lost their next three. MTSU finished well with three wins (over bad teams) and didn't beat another bowl team all season.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
None at this time.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: San Diego State is the favorite among two underachieving teams.
- Location: Hawaii. Obviously neither team has home field advantage, but there's a pretty big difference in how many time zones each team has to travel. Generally going to Hawaii means waking up really early and going to bed early, but it will be two time zones worse for MTSU, and the flight will be 3 hours longer. Since the game is at 3pm local time, none of this will likely matter though.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: San Diego state was 11-2 last year at bowl time and played in Frisco, Texas. Now they're 7-5 and playing in Hawaii. Isn't that an upgrade for a worse year? MTSU was 6-6 last year and played in the Bahamas. Wow, I'm starting to think it pays to have a mediocre season.
- Momentum: Neither team really has momentum; MTSU won their last three but two were pretty bad games really. And San Diego State won three in a row but lost their final game.
It's hard to see either team that fanatical about this bowl game, nor disappointed that they get to go to Hawaii. Mostly a wash unless we find something else.
Final analysis
This is a tough one to parse, as there's not much to go on. There's no reason to think San Diego State wins big because they don't seem to win big. And why take MTSU? They haven't beaten a bowl team all year. It might actually be time to look at special teams play as a tiebreaker, and there we see both teams actually playing good football! It's a miracle. San Diego State's special teams is #2 in the nation per ESPN, so we'll go with them over #9 MTSU. Their field goal kicker Jack Browning has made 17 of 21, while MTSU's Zeke Rankin (now there's a kicker's name) is 12 of 14. It might be a field goal battle made possible by punting and punt coverage and everything else special teams, with the Aztecs winning a dull game in beautiful Hawaii.
Prediction: San Diego State 26, MTSU 23
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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