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Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix, AZ
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 10:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (6-6)
Two Power Five title hopefuls that fell way short. It's unclear if either team wants to win this bowl game.
Vegas line/spread: Wisconsin by 3 1/2 (over/under 44.5)
Most games involving Wisconsin have low totals, but this is extra low—possibly because both offenses have been sucked into the transfer portal. The line and expected score have been pretty steady, up from 3 and 43 early.
Strength power rating: #28 Wisconsin 28, #39 Oklahoma St 25
Best/Worst removed: Wisconsin 27-26
Turnover corrected: Wisconsin 27-27
Strength agrees with Vegas—almost. It's really about 2.5 points and it rounds to 3 to make a proper score. When the best and worst game ratings are tossed, it narrows to a point, and if we correct for turnovers it also contracts, this time to about a half a point. Call it a Wisconsin overtime win. Either way we can see with some adjustments that the game becomes a tossup.
What we don't have is the really low total, probably a consequence of players on offense missing the bowl. We'll take a look.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3 Spread |
| Wisconsin | 54% | 46.5% |
| Oklahoma St | 46% | 53.5% |
Although the Strength power rating favors the Badgers by 3, matching the oddsmakers, they don't win the majority of game-comparisons against a 3 point spread—Oklahoma State does. Normally you'd expect this situation to end up 50/50, but in this case the teams have outliers that make the game comparisons stray from the mean. Here the 50/50 split mark is at 1.5 points or 2 points, not 3.
When Oklahoma St has the ball
| Oklahoma St scoring offense(adj): #34 |
Wisconsin scoring defense(adj): #23 |
| Oklahoma St rushing offense(raw): #93 |
Wisconsin rushing defense(raw): #12 |
| Oklahoma St passing offense(raw): #20 | Wisconsin passing defense(raw): #29 |
A good matchup here with borderline top 25 offense and defense. Oklahoma State's schedule was a bit tougher so the run/pass matchups are better on their side than they would seem, but overall they won't have much luck running the ball but should have decent success passing. That's without the transfer/opt-out players, so all bets are off for what really happens.
Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders (2,642 yards, 17:9, #2 w/391 rush) has entered the transfer portal, along with leading rusher Dominic Richardson (543 yards). That means their top two rushers and #1 QB are gone. Sanders' backups had 729 yards and a 5:7 ratio. Starting to see why the game is so low scoring?
When Wisconsin has the ball
| Wisconsin scoring offense(adj): #46 |
Oklahoma St scoring defense(adj): #44 |
| Wisconsin rushing offense(raw): #53 |
Oklahoma St rushing defense(raw): #96 |
| Wisconsin passing offense(raw): #112 | Oklahoma St passing defense(raw): #113 |
It's pretty even on this side, though Wisconsin's running game could exploit the Cowboys a bit here. But once again let's take a look at the transfer portal: QB Graham Mertz (2,136 yards, 19:10) is gone, along with a trio of part-time starters on the offensive line. Mertz's backups combine for around 100 yards and 1 touchdown. With the passing game shot and the running game in danger due to the offensive line, the Badger offense is in trouble, though no actual OL starters or RBs have opted out yet (top RB Braelon Allen is questionable, which usually means they'll play). Update: Allen will play.
There is some good news for Wisconsin though—some defensive players for the Cowboys have opted out, too, including leading tackler Mason Cobb (LB).
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Oklahoma St: #15 Wisconsin: #113
Oklahoma State's special teams outclasses Wisconsin's by quite a bit. In a game where starters on offense and defense are dropping like flies into the transfer portal, maybe the untouches special teams units will carry the day.
Oklahoma St's season (7-5) • SOS: #13
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-2
- Central Michigan 58-44
- Arizona St 34-17
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff 63-7
- @Baylor 36-25
- Texas Tech 41-31
- @#3 TCU 40-43 2OT
- #20 Texas 41-34
- @#9 Kansas St 0-48
- @Kansas 16-37
- Iowa St 20-14
- @Oklahoma 13-28
- West Virginia 19-24
Oklahoma State had hopes at 5-0 and even at 6-1 for a national title or at least a Big Twelve title. Losing four of their last five put an end to that and the player exodus started. Losing in double-overtime to Playoff-bound TCU was no shame, but falling 48-0 at Kansas State—even if they did win the Big Twelve—was an embarrassment that hung over to the Kansas loss. They barely edged Iowa State before losing to Oklahoma and West Virginia to just get things over.
Are they still there, at the let's-just-get-this-over-with stage? Judging by the players leaving, they couldn't even wait for that stage.
Wisconsin's season (6-6) • SOS: #35
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- Illinois St 38-0
- Washington St 14-17
- New Mexico St 66-7
- @#4 Ohio State 21-52
- Illinois 10-34
- @Northwestern 42-7
- @Michigan St 34-28 2OT
- Purdue 35-24
- Maryland 23-10
- @Iowa 10-24
- @Nebraska 15-14
- Minnesota 16-23
Wisconsin's big dreams ended well before Oklahoma State's, but they still had a shot at the Big Ten title all the way to near the end. The Badgers defense shined in their 38-0 opener but when they faced a real team their offense didn't work. The New Mexico State win looks better in retrospect but big losses to Ohio State (52-21) and Illinois (34-10) sealed the fate of Paul Chryst, even if it was a shock that Wisconsin would take action mid-season. Play improved—or the schedule got easier for a while—and Wisconsin was in the run for the Big Ten West (of course, everyone is always in the run for the Big Ten West) but the Badgers lost two of their last three, a 1-point win over Nebraska being the win that made them bowl eligible.
The Badgers' player exodus started earlier, just after the Paul Chryst firing, and the bowl opt-outs accumulated.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
There are a lot. For Wisconsin:
- Starting QB Graham Mertz has entered the transfer portal
- part-time starting OLs Logan Brown and Michael Furtney are transferring, and Tyler Beach is probably opting out Update: Beach is playing
- Starting RB Braelon Allen is questionable Update: Allen is playing
For Oklahoma State:
- Starting QB Spencer Sanders is transferring
- Leading rusher Dominic Richardson, transfer
- Starting LB and leading tackler Mason Cobb, transfer
- Starting DE Tyler Lacy, opt-out
There are others but those are the important parts.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Wisconsin is the favorite. Seems pretty random at this point though.
- Location: Phoenix Arizona is a neutral location, closer to Oklahoma State but Wisconsin travels notoriously well. Will they this time when the players won't even show up?
- Coaching: Wisconsin's Paul Chryst was fired, but that seems like ancient history now. But it does leave Wisconsin with an interim coach Jim Leonard leading them against Mike Gundy who is in his 18th season.
- Motivation: Is there any for either team? That's the real question. Wisconsin was 8-4 last year and had high expectations this season. Ditto for Ok State who was 11-2 last year.
- Momentum: Both teams lost momentum; for Wisconsin it was early, for Oklahoma State it was late.
It's a sad sad situation, to quote Elton John. Neither team wants to be here, all their players are bolting, their seasons are both in a shambles, and it's the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, ffs.
Final analysis
The reason Wisconsin is the favorite? Because losing their QB hurts them a lot less since they have a ground game, though they do lose some pieces of their offensive line. Oklahoma State also loses their top LB and another starter on defense which helps the Badgers. This game is really coming down to attrition, and who has the best pieces left.
This is another game where all the power ratings and analysis end up meaningless, unless you track individual players and their contribution to the team like in basketball. Wisconsin should have as close to their starting O-line as they normally have, and they'll find a QB to hand off the ball. What will Oklahoma State find? We saw before that when a pass-centric team loses their QB before the bowl game it's about a 16 1/2 point swing (from the power rating estimate). This year will provide a few examples of non-pass-centric teams losing their QB, such as Florida and now Wisconsin. But we think the effect will be much less, maybe half or smaller.
Braelon Allen is playing, though he may have given Oklahoma State some bulletin board material with his assertion that game film show Oklahoma State's run defense is bad and susceptible to long runs. The Badgers are missing two starting offensive lineman, but Oklahoma State is missing two key defensive starters, so maybe he's right. If the Cowboys weren't stumbling into the bowl game I think they'd take that as a challenge; as it is, they might not have the fight in them to take offense.
So Wisconsin can field a ground game against Oklahoma State's depleted defense, while the Cowboys can try out their backup QBs to face Wisconsin defense, which is quite good against the pass anyway. On paper it like the Badgers are on their way to a win.
At least as far as we can guess. And at this point, it's really a guess. Your mileage may vary. But let's face it Oklahoma State was a pretty bad team over the last five games [Update] and recent developments (more attrition on Oklahoma State's side, and Wisconsin keeping more of their O-line and RB squad intact) favor Wisconsin even more. I won't modify the pick but that reinforces it.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Oklahoma State 13
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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