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Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, FL
When: Friday, December 23 at 6:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) vs. Missouri Tigers (6-6)
For the record Gasparilla is a pirate, Jose Gaspar, who "terrorized the coastal waters of West Florida during the late 18th and 19th centuries." Therefore we have a bowl in his honor, because terrorizing Florida is apparently a good thing.
Vegas line/spread: Wake Forest by 2 1/2 (over/under 59)
A tight game is forecast by the oddsmakers. The line ticked up from 1 by game day and the over/under is down from 61.5.
Strength power rating: #44 Wake Forest 31, #48 Missouri 29
Best/Worst removed: Wake Forest 31-29
Turnover corrected: Wake Forest 31-29
The spread in our prediction is actually 1.37; rounding makes it 2 points, but it's really closer to being right on the opening Vegas spread of 1 point. The other adjustments don't change things very much, so it's a consistent 1-2 points.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -1 Spread |
| Wake Forest | 53.5% | 52.8% |
| Missouri | 46.5% | 47.2% |
Despite the power rating spread being so close to 1 point, the Deacons' odds of covering are barely different than their odds of winning; both are just over 50%. The 50/50 line is exactly 2 points.
When Wake Forest has the ball
| Wake Forest scoring offense(adj): #16 |
Missouri scoring defense(adj): #26 |
| Wake Forest rushing offense(raw): #91 |
Missouri rushing defense(raw): #34 |
| Wake Forest passing offense(raw): #10 | Missouri passing defense(raw): #42 |
It's a great game when Wake Forest's top 25 offense has the ball, as they're going up against Missouri's (almost) top 25 defense. The raw numbers can sort of be compared in a fair way since these are both Power Five conference teams, but remember that Wake's SOS is #60 to Missouri's #16. That said, it's pretty clear that Wake Forest is a passing team and that Missouri's defense is solid all-around, even better than the raw numbers indicate. 5th-year senior QB Sam Hartman has 3,421 yards on the season and a 35:11 ratio; top target AT Perry need 20 yards to top 1,000 for the year. Wake offense is called "slow mesh" for some reason (it develops slowly), but basically he fakes a handoff nearly every play...and sometimes ends up handing the ball off instead of passing, once the defense overcommits.
When Missouri has the ball
| Missouri scoring offense(adj): #60 |
Wake Forest scoring defense(adj): #80 |
| Missouri rushing offense(raw): #62 |
Wake Forest rushing defense(raw): #44 |
| Missouri passing offense(raw): #91 | Wake Forest passing defense(raw): #117 |
Missouri's offense is potent like Wake Forest's but they'll be facing a softer defense than their own. They run the ball a bit more than they pass and that will probably be the case on game day as their leading receiver Dominic Lovett (846 yards, 3 TDs) has entered the transfer portal.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Wake Forest: #90 Missouri: #40
What should be a tight game might come down to special teams, and if that's the case Missouri has an edge.
Wake Forest's season (7-5) • SOS: #60
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-2
- VMI 44-10
- @Vanderbilt 45-25
- Liberty 37-36
- #7 Clemson 45-51 2OT
- @#13 Florida St 31-21
- Army 45-10
- Boston College 43-15
- @Louisville 21-48
- @#23 North Carolina St 21-30
- North Carolina 34-36
- Syracuse 45-35
- @Duke 31-34
Wake Forest was a double overtime loss to Clemson away from a 7-0 start, which would probably have made their 1-4 finish even worst to take. The culprit wasn't so much a decline (thought their best games were in the mid-season) but the ramping up of the schedule as they faced five bowl teams in a row at the end. The Deacons did get a win at Florida State which makes them 1-2 against the Committee top 25 and 3-5 against the bowl field.
Despite the poor finish they generally played well even then, with three of the losses coming on the road and two by 3 points or less.
Missouri's season (6-6) • SOS: #17
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3
- Louisiana Tech 52-24
- @#9 Kansas St 12-40
- Abilene Christian 34-17
- @Auburn 14-17 OT
- #1 Georgia 22-26
- @Florida 17-24
- Vanderbilt 17-14
- @#19 South Carolina 23-10
- Kentucky 17-21
- @#6 Tennessee 24-66
- New Mexico St 45-14
- Arkansas 29-27
Like Wake, Missouri went 3-5 vs. bowl teams but overall had a much tougher schedule, traveling to Manhattan to face eventual Big Twelve champ Kansas State in a bad losing effort, and giving #1 Georgia a big run for the money at home. They beat South Carolina but were crushed by Tennessee, only the 2nd team to score more than 27 points on them.
The Tigers were 4-6 and needed two wins to go bowling; they beat New Mexico State (not a surprise) and then made a home stand against Arkansas to get the last win they needed. That, at the least, shows they can come through when motivated, and were able to rebound from the bad Tennessee loss.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Missouri's top wide receiver Dominic Lovett has entered the transfer portal. Wake Forest's #3 receiver Jahmal Banks is questionable.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Wake Forest is a very small favorite, not nearly enough to get cocky about. If anything Missouri might feel like they should be favored, but a 6-6 team can only think that for so long before feeling ridiculous.
- Location: It's a pretty neutral site in Tampa; Missouri might travel better but Wake is closer, so maybe a wash?
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: The Deacons definitely had a letdown, both from last year and mid-season this year. That said, last year's bowl game was against a 5-7 team so this one may seem a step up. Missouri was 6-6 last year, too, but this time it's a bit better because of the clutch end.
- Momentum: Missouri seems to have a clear edge here, winning their last two games when they needed two wins while Wake was bowl-eligible at 6-1 and went 1-4 from there. I don't really expect momentum to play a part in the bowl game, as despite the stories, both teams played pretty consistent whether winning or losing. It's more about their motivation to win the game ahead of them.
Missouri probably has the edge in motivation after their finish compared to Wake's finish. Are they happy about this particular bowl and opponent? At 6-6 they had to know they couldn't be picky. Wake Forest doesn't mean much to them, nor they to Wake Forest except for the SEC angle.
Final analysis
When teams play Wake Forest it's a question of whether they can match the scoring. The Deacons sacrifice their defense to the altar of high-speed offense and hope the other team can't keep up. The only two offenses that really hurt Missouri were Kansas State (#12) and Tennessee (#1). Even Georgia (#3) only managed 26 points. Arkansas (#23 offense) scored 27, and #24 Florida scored 24. Given that, the Tigers can hope to hold #16 Wake Forest between 28 and 39, which isn't great but keeps it in reach of the offense. Wake Forest has been giving up quite a few points lately to mediocre offenses like 35 to #57 Syracuse, and even 48 to #50 Louisville. #60 Missouri has the ability to stay with them.
However they'll be missing their go-to receiver which will impact the passing game. That makes things a bit harder, but as a running team it's not a deal-breaker. Wake Forest can usually be depended on to give up enough points in big games to keep things exciting and close. But in the end I think it comes down to the experience of 5th-year senior Sam Hartman. Regardless of the team's motivation he'll be there running the offense in his last game as a Deacon, and he'll want to go out on a win.
Update: On game day the spread moved and now my prediction below is on the other side of the line, which is awkward, but I'm going to resist the urge to change it. Sticking with Wake by 2 points, for better or worse.
Prediction: Wake Forest 36, Missouri 34
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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