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Frisco Bowl in Frisco, TX
When: Saturday, December 17 at 9:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Boise State Broncos (9-4) vs. North Texas Mean Green (7-6)
Boise State travels 1,500 miles into North Texas's backyard. Both teams lost their conference title game to end up here.
Vegas line/spread: Boise State by 12 (over/under 63)
Boise is one of several 10+ point favorites in the earlier bowl games. It's unclear whether Vegas has spotted North Texas any consideration for playing very close to home; it appears not as 12 is a pretty hefty spread. The line moved up from 10, and the over/under was up from 56.5 to 60, then to 63 on game day.
Strength power rating: #64 Boise State 33, #90 North Texas 28
Best/Worst removed: Boise State 33-27
Turnover corrected: Boise State 33-28
We're giving North Texas partial home field advantage for playing in-state, and really, almost in-city as Frisco is just 35 miles from Denton. It still leaves Boise State the favorite but not with much leeway.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -10 Spread |
| Boise State | 57% | 41.4% |
| North Texas | 43% | 58.6% |
Boise State wins most of the game-comparisons but against the hefty 10 point spread the odds flip against them.
When Boise State has the ball
| Boise State scoring offense(adj): #62 |
North Texas scoring defense(adj): #109 |
| Boise State rushing offense(raw): #38 |
North Texas rushing defense(raw): #107 |
| Boise State passing offense(raw): #109 | North Texas passing defense(raw): #115 |
This matchup favors the Broncos pretty clearly, even though their offense is very average North Texas's defense is very below average. While the rush/pass numbers are unadjusted the teams play roughly similar schedule strength, and North Texas's defense looks bad across the board no matter how you slice it. Particularly the ground game led by George Holani would be promising, except that Holani will miss the game with an injury. 2nd leading rusher Ashton Jeanty (643 yards) has a similar per-carry average.
When North Texas has the ball
| North Texas scoring offense(adj): #61 |
Boise State scoring defense(adj): #53 |
| North Texas rushing offense(raw): #24 |
Boise State rushing defense(raw): #25 |
| North Texas passing offense(raw): #36 | Boise State passing defense(raw): #4 |
North Texas has almost the exact scoring offense rank as Boise State, but the Broncos counter with a decent defense. And although the Mean Green can run the ball and pass (at least against their poor opposition), Boise State's defense is up to the task of slowing them down. In fact, looking at Boise State's yardage numbers on defense, you'd think they have a lockdown D for sure! Top 25 vs. the run, Top 5 vs. the pass? But remember these are unadjusted for competition, and Boise played the #100 schedule in the country out of 131.
So while their rush and pass defense are no doubt good, they're not that great. Look at their scoring defense—which is adjusted—for reference. That's how good their defense is. Their unadjusted scoring defense is #11, so you'd expect them to have the #25 and #4 yardage defenses, unadjusted. In this case it doesn't matter too much because North Texas has an SOS of #105, so you can probably compare the two teams rankings fairly. Just not against teams who play a tough schedule!
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Boise State: #79 North Texas: #30
One way North Texas might keep the game close is via special teams play.
Boise State's season (9-4) • SOS: #100
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- @#14 Oregon St 17-34
- @New Mexico 31-14
- Tennessee-Martin 30-7
- @UTEP 10-27
- San Diego St 35-13
- Fresno St 40-20
- @Air Force 19-14
- Colorado St 49-10
- Brigham Young 28-31
- @Nevada 41-3
- @Wyoming 20-17
- Utah St 42-23
- Fresno St 16-28
Boise State lost their opener at eventual top 25 team Oregon State, and in game four suffered a terrible loss at UTEP that stands as their worst performance. The Broncos had four solid wins after that over three bowl teams. They lost a close one at BYU but finished 9-3 heading into the rematch with Fresno State, whom they beat previously 40-20. This time they lost, however, 28-16 and instead of playing Washington State in the L.A. Bowl they ended up in the Frisco Bowl against North Texas.
Boise has a lot of non-conference losses and 2 home losses; neither is a good sign.
North Texas's season (7-6) • SOS: #105
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @UTEP 31-13
- SMU 10-48
- Texas Southern 59-27
- @UNLV 27-58
- @Memphis 34-44
- Florida Atlantic 45-28
- Louisiana Tech 47-27
- @#25 UTSA 27-31
- @Western Kentucky 40-13
- Florida Int'l 52-14
- @UAB 21-41
- Rice 21-17
- @#25 UTSA 27-48
North Texas started with a 31-13 win at UTEP (remember, UTEP beat Boise 27-10) but were crushed by SMU 48-10. They racked up 59 on Texas Southern but allowed 58 to UNLV in their next game. Then the Mean Green had a 6-game stretch of quality, starting even with the 10 point loss at Memphis and including a 4-point loss to UTSA along with four wins, the best being a 40-13 win at Western Kentucky. Their last three efforts were poor and they lost two of them, including the rematch with UTSA which went much worse.
We noted Boise's non-conference losses but North Texas matches them with three, though they only had one home loss. Their record vs. bowl teams is much worse, too, with only one win. They are 0-2 against top 25 teams but it's the same team (UTSA) twice.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
#1 rusher George Holani (1,133) is out with injury for Boise State, while backup QB Hank Bachmeier has entered the transfer portal.
#3 receiver Stefan Cobbs is questionable for Boise. For North Texas, #3 rusher Oscar Adaway is questionable.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Boise State is a pretty big favorite and may get a bit overconfident.
- Location: North Texas is playing 35 miles from home while Boise is 1500 miles from Boise. That's worth a couple points probably.
- Coaching: Despite their 7-6 record and bowl appearance, head coach Seth Littrell was fired by North Texas; DC Phil Bennett will coach the team during the bowl.
- Motivation: Both teams lost their conference title game so they both had slightly higher hopes for the bowl season. Note that Boise has only been to one bowl in the last four years as they didn't go in 2020 and their bowls were cancelled in 2021 and 2018 (called after delays).
- Momentum: Neither team has momentum after their conference title game loss but from last season both teams saw an improvement. Boise State did better than last year's 7-5 and last year was unable to compete in their bowl game, so they should be somewhat pleased now. North Texas improved from 6-6 last year but apparently 7-6 is not good enough for such a high-profile program(?) and they fired their coach.
The coaching change is the big question here, and it comes as a bit of a surprise. It's not like North Texas is a huge coaching destination, and the team did (slightly) better than last season. How will the team respond? Normally coaching changes don't make much difference, surprisingly. If the team is really upset that a coach left, or got fired, then they might play poorly but in general it's mostly a non-factor.
Both teams lost their conference title game but it hits harder for Boise State, who beat Fresno State earlier in the year. North Texas couldn't beat UTSA the first time and was an underdog in game two, so they were prepared for coming here. For Boise, a win wouldn't have improved their bowl game very much, as Fresno State is playing on the same day.
The chance for Boise to be unmotivated and overconfident is perhaps offset by North Texas losing their coach, though the Mean Green does get to play close to home. A lot of random little factors to consider, perhaps.
Final analysis
Lots of factors to discuss here. George Holani's absence puts a damper on Boise's ability to exploit North Texas's rushing defense, but backup Ashton Jeanty should be able to capitalize much the same.
Boise is a 10 point favorite, which is probably a bit high, especially for a game in North Texas's back yard. But the Mean Green's loss of their coach probably affected the line. One reason it's hard to see the effect of losing a coach is that the oddsmakers adjust for it, so there is little effect "against expectations" i.e. the spread.
North Texas firing their coach has some people puzzled. Weren't they a whole lot worst before he got there? Yes, but he also had a .500 record and went 0-5 in bowl games. Every school imagines they're going to be the next Boise State, a program that became a Power Five level program for nearly a decade. And that's another factor—how disappointed will Boise and its fans be after another decent-but-not-great season? After so many years of 12-1, the slow decline into a perennial 9-4 is a big downer. They don't see themselves as being in the same situation as North Texas—just another Group of Five conference title game loser.
So does a disgruntled Boise State take out their frustrations on a coach-less North Texas? Or do the Broncos come in flat and go through the motions, only to find that a half-hearted attempt won't cut it against a team playing close to home? It's always tempting to split the difference and say the underdog covers but loses, but that's a cop-out.
It would certainly be ironic if North Texas finally won a bowl after Seth Littrell gets fired, but Boise State hasn't won a bowl since 2017 so something's got to give. Looks like I'm taking the cop-out: Boise wins, North Texas covers.
Prediction: Boise State 33, North Texas 27
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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