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First Responder Bowl in Dallas, TX
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 3:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Memphis Tigers (6-6) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-6)
Yet another 6-6 bowl game, how many of these are there anyway? (Answer: 5 that are strictly between two 6-6 teams).
Vegas line/spread: Memphis by 7 (over/under 57.5)
Memphis is a pretty clear favorite, breaking the touchdown barrier in the early line but down to 7 lately. The over/under is down from 62.5 early.
Strength power rating: #50 Memphis 39, #139 Utah State 19
Best/Worst removed: Memphis 39-19
Turnover corrected: Memphis 37-21
A pretty huge spread from the Strength power rating, 20 points, dwarfing the oddsmakers one-touchdown call. It narrows a bit when corrected for the oversized influence of turnovers (down to 16 points) but is still huge. Obviously this discrepancy requires further investigation.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7.5 Spread |
| Memphis | 92% | 83% |
| Utah St | 8% | 17% |
There's no two ways about it, our power rating really likes Memphis here, giving them the win over 90% of the time and beating the spread 5 out of 6 game comparisons. This is the biggest blowout on paper of the bowl season—before looking at other factors, of course. There's probably a reason the oddsmakers aren't quite as sure about this game.
When Memphis has the ball
| Memphis scoring offense(adj): #47 |
Utah St scoring defense(adj): #116 |
| Memphis rushing offense(raw): #81 |
Utah St rushing defense(raw): #119 |
| Memphis passing offense(raw): #22 | Utah St passing defense(raw): #25 |
Here's a big reason that our power rating favors Memphis so heavily: Utah State's terrible defense. Memphis has a decent offense but they should fire on all cylinders against the Aggies' paper defense. Utah State's rush defense is so bad that the pass-centric Tigers can probably have success there. As for the passing game, Utah State's top 25 ranking is unadjusted, of course, and just reflects the fact that teams don't pass on them since running the ball is so easy. Memphis QB Seth Henigan has 3,287 yards and a 19:8 ratio. The Aggies do have a couple of safeties with multiple interceptions, so it's not like the pass defense is actually bad, just not tested as often as their rush D.
When Utah St has the ball
| Utah St scoring offense(adj): #84 |
Memphis scoring defense(adj): #64 |
| Utah St rushing offense(raw): #58 |
Memphis rushing defense(raw): #26 |
| Utah St passing offense(raw): #105 | Memphis passing defense(raw): #98 |
Utah State's offense isn't terrible and Memphis' defense isn't great, but the Tigers will clearly slow the Aggies down a lot more than the other way around. When it comes to comparing rush/pass offense and defense, the teams have about the same level of schedule and the numbers line up with the adjusted scoring numbers. So we can say that Memphis has a solid rush defense, probably capable of handling Utah State's run game why Calvin Tyler Jr has over 1,000 yards for the season. The Aggies don't pass much which is fine with Memphis.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Memphis: #73 Utah St: #14
If Utah State needs a tactic to keep things close, special teams play can help. Safety Ike Larsen has blocked three kicks this season.
Memphis's season (6-6) • SOS: #72
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-6
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @#22 Mississippi St 23-49
- @Navy 37-13
- Arkansas St 44-32
- North Texas 44-34
- Temple 24- 3
- Houston 32-33
- @East Carolina 45-47 4OT
- @#16 Tulane 28-38
- Central Florida 28-35
- Tulsa 26-10
- North Alabama 59-0
- @SMU 31-34
Memphis looks like one of the best 6-6 teams around—certainly one of the most consistent. Is there any difference in play between their four-game win streak and the following 4-game losing streak? In fact all of their losses except maybe Mississippi State in the opener were worthy efforts, and all to bowl teams. In fact they won all their games by at least 10 points and had 4 losses within a touchdown...this 6-6 team is a few ball bounces away from 10-2.
Utah St's season (6-6) • SOS: #81
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- Connecticut 31-20
- @#5 Alabama 0-55
- Weber St 7-35
- UNLV 24-34
- @Brigham Young 26-38
- Air Force 34-27
- @Colorado St 17-13
- @Wyoming 14-28
- New Mexico 27-10
- @Hawai`i 41-34
- San Jose St 35-31
- @Boise St 23-42
Utah State was pretty consistently bad but still managed to beat three bowl teams, a good demonstration of how bad many bowl teams are in the 40+ bowl game era. UConn, for example, made a bowl this year. Good for them, but they aren't a good team. Utah State beat them and then lost four straight, ranging from the completely understandable (at Alabama) to embarrassing (Weber State at home, 35-7). Air Force went 9-3 but Utah State beat them, now that's a legit win. The Aggies finished with 5 wins in their last 7 which is admirable. But really, they played one good game the whole year, and they'll need to replicate that performance to have a chance.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
No new injures or opt-outs for either team. A receivers are questionable for Memphis, none among the leaders by yardage
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Memphis is a solid favorite but maybe they think the line should be higher? At 6-6, it's doubtful they are worried about the line being too low.
- Location: Dallas is a pretty neutral field, even if Utah State has 3x as far to go and is a time zone away.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Memphis went 6-6 last year and didn't play in a bowl game, so they should be at least a bit excited. They probably want to finish with a winning record since they lost so many close ones. Meanwhile Utah State was 10-3 last year and played Oregon State and won; this year they're 6-6. The season didn't live up to their hopes for sure.
- Momentum: Neither team won their last game but both played well at the end, Memphis winning 2 of 3 and Utah State taking 3 of 4. Maybe more relief than momentum.
We don't really see much to go on here. Neither Memphis nor Utah State would seem to be extremely hyped, nor terribly disappointed at this point. Sometimes you only hear about this stuff after the fact but for now? No real advantage.
Final analysis
I can't see Memphis laying an egg here as they've played so consistently all season long. But will they play true to form and dominate the game like they really should? We noted the big disparity between Strength and Vegas, and Vegas is usually right or they would go out of business. But we can't really account for the narrow spread. It's not exactly narrow, anything over a touchdown is pretty big—but usually there's a reason when our power rating departs from the spread. And it's not like there aren't several 10-point spreads all over the early bowl games. I'd expect this one to be at least 10 points. Maybe not 20, but 10 seems reasonable.
Utah State will need to get a lot of big plays like turnovers to win this game. Safeties Hunter Reynolds and Ike Larsen combine for 7 picks this year. That's the only way they'll really shut down Memphis through the air. Larsen is also the one who blocked 3 kicks this year, so if the Aggies win he'll probably be the hero. But big plays are heavily random and we can't assume they're going to come through with game-changing momentum. And the Tigers have two players who combine for 7 picks, too, and the turnover game actually favors them—it's when we remove it that their spread falls to 16.
Unless I figure something else out, I'm going with Memphis. I'm impressed by their consistency. They play well win or lose, and the level of their losing games beats almost all of Utah State's winning games. Without a reason to downgrade Memphis or upgrade Utah State, I have to go with the Tigers to take care of business. And as we've seen, when the Tigers win, they win comfortably.
Prediction: Memphis 38, Utah St 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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