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Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ
When: Saturday, December 31 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) vs. #3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1)
Here we go, the first Playoff game, and it's a great one.
Vegas line/spread: Michigan by 7 1/2 (over/under 58)
Michigan is a pretty solid favorite at just over a touchdown, and that line has held steady for weeks. The o/u dipped 1/2 point.
Strength power rating: #3 Michigan 34, #8 TCU 29
Best/Worst removed: Michigan 35-29
Turnover corrected: Michigan 35-29
These are pretty consistent. Michigan is #3 in Strength (behind Georgia and Ohio State) and TCU is #8, just over a 5 point difference. The alternate adjustments bump it to maybe 6 points.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7.5 Spread |
| Michigan | 68% | 47.3% |
| TCU | 32% | 52.7% |
Michigan wins more than 2/3 of the time when comparing game ratings over the season, but not against the touchdown+ spread.
When Michigan has the ball
| Michigan scoring offense(adj): #5 |
TCU scoring defense(adj): #15 |
| Michigan rushing offense(raw): #6 |
TCU rushing defense(raw): #64 |
| Michigan passing offense(raw): #93 | TCU passing defense(raw): #83 |
Michigan has a top 5 offense while TCU has a solidly top 25 defense. The rush/pass numbers are too skewed by schedule to be comparative across teams, just note that Michigan loves to run the ball and does it well. They'll be without star running back Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 18 TDs) however, a huge hit. But note that backup Donovan Edwards (872 yards) torched Ohio State for 216 yards, so there's a lot of confidence in the running game even without Corum.
QB J.J. McCarthy poses a dual threat too (254 yards), but he's mostly a game-manager (2,376 yards, 20 TDs, 3 interceptions) who takes care of the ball. He showed during the Ohio State game that he can make big throws, too, and has completes 65% of his attempts. Backup QB Cade McNamara, who started last season for the Wolverines, has entered the transfer portal.
When TCU has the ball
| TCU scoring offense(adj): #7 |
Michigan scoring defense(adj): #3 |
| TCU rushing offense(raw): #25 |
Michigan rushing defense(raw): #3 |
| TCU passing offense(raw): #25 | Michigan passing defense(raw): #22 |
Max Duggan (3,321 yards, 30 TDs, 4 int) is the story of TCU's offense, a comeback story like so many of TCU's games. Duggan lost the starting job last spring but stuck around and got the job back when Chandler Morris got hurt in the first game. TCU is pretty balanced between passing and running, with Kendre Miller the leading RB with 1,342 yards and 17 TDs.
TCU's offense is in the top ten while Michigan's defense is top 5 level. It will be a heck of a battle but you can never count TCU out at any point in the game.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Michigan: #50 TCU: #33
Both teams have moderately good special teams.
Michigan (13-0) • SOS: #37
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 7-0
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-0
- Colorado St 51-7
- Hawai`i 56-10
- Connecticut 59-0
- Maryland 34-27
- @Iowa 27-14
- @Indiana 31-10
- #11 Penn State 41-17
- Michigan St 29-7
- @Rutgers 52-17
- Nebraska 34-3
- Illinois 19-17
- @#4 Ohio State 45-23
- -Purdue 43-22
Michigan's chart is a wall of blue start to finish, and pretty much every game is a solid effort, even the games that seemed pedestrian at the time were pretty good. For example the 56-0 shutout of UConn was taken to be symptomatic of a Huskies program bound for another 2-10 season, but they finished 6-6.
Of course their other high points were beating Penn State 41-17 and crushing Ohio State 45-23 on the road, an "off the charts" performance and one of the best in college football this year. Right before that was their worst outing, a 19-17 win over Illinois. It still actually rates pretty high, and it seems pretty certain that the Wolverines were doing a bit of "looking ahead" to their next game when they needed that last-second field goal to beat the Illini.
In all the Wolverines beat seven bowl team, held three teams under 10 points, but faced just two Committee-ranked teams. The Big Ten had a lot of parity and that made several teams end up 8-4 or 7-5. Their schedule only ranks #37 in the nation, partly from facing 3-9 Hawaii, 3-10 Colorado State, and yes, UConn, but also from their Big Ten title game being Purdue, a weaker opponent than most Power Five champs faced. Speaking of the Purdue game, that win was a solid showing for Michigan—they showed no sign of slowing down and had one of their best overall performances (4th best according to our chart).
TCU (12-1) • SOS: #5
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 0*
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 8-1
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-1
- @Colorado 38-13
- Tarleton St 59-17
- @SMU 42-34
- Oklahoma 55-24
- @Kansas 38-31
- Oklahoma St 43-40 2OT
- #9 Kansas St 38-28
- @West Virginia 41-31
- Texas Tech 34-24
- @#20 Texas 17-10
- @Baylor 29-28
- Iowa St 62-14
- +#9 Kansas St 28-31 OT
TCU's schedule was a lot harder than Michigan's, despite playing 1-11 Colorado and Tarleton State. Nine of their other 11 opponents went to a bowl game, and the two that didn't were 5-7 and 4-8.
In general TCU played at a level slightly below Michigan. Their standout efforts were the 55-24 win over Oklahoma, the first meeting with K-State, a 38-28 win, the 17-10 road win at Texas, and the 62-14 win over a very underrated Iowa State team. Their loss to K-State—essentially another home game in Arlington—was still a very strong effort, possibly their 5th best performance. So there wasn't any breakdown on TCU's part, it was just a close game that could have gone either way at the end.
Nor did TCU have any truly subpar offensive or defensive outings. Typically their best games were great games on offense; they had only one extraordinary defensive performance (Texas 17-10) and unlike Michigan, they held no opponents under 10 points. And while Michigan had just 2 "close call" wins, TCU lived by them, with 8 wins by 10 or fewer points. In fact seven games in a row—from Kansas through Baylor—were hard-fought wins, many of them comebacks, the most memorable being their last-second "sprint" field goal that beat Baylor.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Michigan's #1 running back Blake Corum is injured and will not play. Backup QB Cade McNamara, who started last year and was in the running at the beginning of the season, has transferred.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Michigan's a pretty big favorite, and TCU probably understands why and will revel in the underdog role. Michigan is well aware that TCU is famous for its comeback victories.
- Location: Neutral field in Glendale, Arizona; TCU is closer (15.5 hour drive to 29 hour drive) than Michigan and both teams will be well-represented by fans.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: There's lots of motivation for both teams, as there is in every Playoff game. Michigan was here last year and lost in the first game. TCU was just 5-7 last year and fans are nuts about the team this season.
- Momentum: Michigan has all the momentum in the world; TCU had a bump in the road (a big one) that may have dissipated their invincible aura, but they can probably pick up without missing a beat.
TCU obviously has crazy motivation and they have to be very psyched to make the Playoff. The loss might or might not affect them, it's hard to say. Michigan has the advantage of still feeling indestructible, but they're a bit less out of their heads excited than TCU since they were here last year.
Final analysis
This is just a great game. Of course the Playoffs match the four best teams so it would be kind of weird if they came up with just a bad game. There have been some before where it was obvious that a blowout was coming (LSU vs Oklahoma 2017 comes to mind) and in fact a lot of the games do end in blowouts, but this one stands out as a good matchup. Probably because both teams are underdogs in the college football world.
Yes, even Michigan somehow became a perennial "underdog" because their their futility in beating Ohio State. They haven't won a national title since 1997, and that one was shared; before that, you have to go back to 1948! So amazingly, the bluest of blue-blood programs has one shared national title in the last 70 years. TCU claims one national title in 1938.
Two very strong teams, one very steady and the other pretty unpredictable. Both had games where they needed a last-second field goal to win, and Michigan did it the standard way: call time out, set up, kick. TCU did it the chaotic way: Run the ball, quickly rush onto the field to set up and kick before time runs out. It was controlled chaos though, a play they had practiced, not some seat-of-the-pants play. Their whole season has been practiced chaos, and it's why they win close games and come back to win so often. They've learned they're never out and trust they will come back to win.
That notion failed against Kansas State. Some people think having a loss "frees" a team to stop focusing on being undefeated, but during a playoff, you have to be undefeated to win it. It's rarely better to have a loss going in—the feeling of invincibility and inevitability is better. That said, TCU's enthusiasm won't be quelled.
Michigan can still hold on to the feeling of invincibility. They might be less emotionally charged since they were in the Playoff last year, but they can trade that for their stability. Last year was about beating Ohio State for the first time in forever; by the time they were at the Playoff, that job was over. This year is about finishing the rebuilding job Jim Harbaugh set out to do. Beating Ohio State was necessary for that. I think the team will beat TCU and move on to the national championship game.
Many Playoff games are huge blowouts (in fact about 3/4 of first round Playoff games have been) so when predicting the score, it's best to have your winner win in a rout. I'm not doing that here because of TCU's ability to come back. They will likely keep it close, win or lose.
Prediction: Michigan 34, TCU 30
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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