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Fenway Bowl in Boston, MA
Time: Saturday, December 17 at 11:00 am ET
TV: ESPN
Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) vs. Louisville Cardinals (7-5)
Too bad this matchup of teams who live in each other's backyards had to go all the way to Boston to make it happen, but it should still carry some heat for those who bother to show up—especially since Cincy hired away Louisville's coach days ago!
Vegas line/spread: Louisville by 2 (over/under 38.5)
Louisville is a slight favorite over the Bearcats. The over-under is very low due to both teams having really good defenses and average offenses. The line is up from 1 1/2, and the over has plunged almost a touchdown from 44 1/2 due to opt-outs and transfers on both offenses.
Strength power rating: #27 Louisville 23, #41 Cincinnati 20
Best/Worst removed: Louisville 24-20
Turnover corrected: Louisville 23-21
Our power ratings basically agree with Vegas as usual, giving the Cardinals a bit more room but of course, that doesn't account for the fact that Cincy has Louisville's coach to scout them—though he says he won't be involved in that.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -1.5 Spread |
| Louisville | 64% | 61% |
| Cincinnati | 36% | 39% |
Louisville wins most comparisons straight up and usually covers against a 1.5 point spread, too.
When Cincinnati has the ball
| Cincinnati scoring offense(adj): #68 |
Louisville scoring defense(adj): #17 |
| Cincinnati rushing offense(raw): #88 |
Louisville rushing defense(raw): #48 |
| Cincinnati passing offense(raw): #44 | Louisville passing defense(raw): #34 |
Cincy's average offense has to go up against a top 25 level Cardinal defense. The ground game probably doesn't work well for them and even their solid passing attack will find resistance—particularly due to the absence of starting QB Ben Bryant, who is out for the season. Backup Evan Prater struggled against Tulane, going 10 of 26. They're also missing their #1, #2, #4, and #5 receivers.
When Louisville has the ball
| Louisville scoring offense(adj): #50 |
Cincinnati scoring defense(adj): #25 |
| Louisville rushing offense(raw): #35 |
Cincinnati rushing defense(raw): #49 |
| Louisville passing offense(raw): #92 | Cincinnati passing defense(raw): #17 |
Another mediocre offense going up against a top 25 defense. QB Malik Cunningham is out with injury suffered against Kentucky and #1 receiver Tyler Hudson is opting out. At least the Cardinals have one area—the ground game—where their offense, at least in raw terms, is better than the Bearcat defense—though they are missing their #3 and #4 rushers.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Cincinnati: #5 Louisville: #27
Cincinnati has great special teams, but Louisville isn't bad either. No bid advantage here on paper but yet another reason the game could be close.
Cincinnati's season (9-3) • SOS: #79
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- @Arkansas 24-31
- Kennesaw St 63-10
- @Miami OH 38-17
- Indiana 45-24
- @Tulsa 31-21
- South Florida 28-24
- @SMU 29-27
- @Central Florida 21-25
- Navy 20-10
- East Carolina 27-25
- @Temple 23-3
- #16 Tulane 24-27
Cincinnati lost most of their big games this season—the opener at Arkansas, the clash with UCF, and the game with Tulane that decided the C-USA title game slot. Throughout it though the Bearcats played extremely consistent football, only dipping a bit vs. USF in a game they won anyway. Don't expect a sub-par—or extra-great—performance from Cincinnati.
Louisville's season (7-5) • SOS: #48
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- @Syracuse 7-31
- @Central Florida 20-14
- #13 Florida St 31-35
- South Florida 41-3
- @Boston College 33-34
- @Virginia 34-17
- Pittsburgh 24-10
- Wake Forest 48-21
- James Madison 34-10
- @#7 Clemson 16-31
- North Carolina St 25-10
- @Kentucky 13-26
Louisville's demeanor is the opposite of Cincinnati's composure—the Cardinals were up and down all year. They got blasted right off the bat by Syracuse, but recovered to beat UCF on the road (a team that beat Cincinnati). They played what turned out to be a great game vs. FSU and clobbered USF 41-3—but then they lost to Boston College. The Cards won four straight in style, but dropped 2 of their last three. Ultimately those late losses—to Clemson and Kentucky—can't really be held against them in a stretch where they went 4-2 against all winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Starting QB Ben Bryant is out for the season for Cincinnati; #1 WR Tyler Scott (899 yds), #2 Tre Tucker (672), #4 Josh Whyle (326), and #5 Nick Mardner (218) have all opted out or transferred. Reserve D-back JQ Hardaway is transferring as well. Starting safety Jaquan Sheppard (50 tackles) is in the portal too.
Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is out with injury; #3 rusher Tiyon Evans (525 yards) is opting out and #4 rusher Trevlon Cooley (278 yards) is tranferring.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Louisville is a slight favorite with Vegas; Cincy is unlikely to feel slighted, nor Louisville overconfident.
- Location: No advantage here at all, as both are traveling the exact same distance really.
- Coaching: Oddly enough, Cincinnati hired Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield to coach the Bearcats, making for a very unusual situation where the Cardinals may (or may not?) be motivated to beat their former head coach, who will have extensive working knowledge of his opponent! Cincinnati lost their own head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin. The Cardinals have named Deion Branch their interim coach.
- Motivation: Both teams will be motivated by their proximity/rivalry, and by the recent coaching change shenanigans!
- Momentum: Neither team had much momentum during the season nor at the end. Cincinnati played consistently the whole year. Compared to last season's 13-0, Cincy might feel a bit of a letdown while Louisville improved just a bit on their 6-6 regular 2022.
The coaching change is the gorilla in the room here. Scott Satterfield is Cincy's new coach, coming directly from Louisville, which would give them a huge advantage if he were to scout and/or coach the team. But Cincy has said that interim coach Kerry Coombs will coach the bowl game, so logistically the Bearcats shouldn't have any advantage.
But how will it affect the players on both sides? Both teams lost their coach, but only one team will be angry at the other team about it. Louisville might be motivated to win this game, more than Cincy. But let's face it, with the slew of transfers and opt-outs on both sides, is either team really motivated?
Final analysis
It's reasonable to think both teams will play pretty hard for their fans back home, but this game is nothing like it would have been if it were played closer to home. Then we'd have to look at how good each team is when they're at their best. Played in Boston, this game comes down to how good the teams are, flaws and all.
Cincinnati will miss starting QB Ben Bryant, who led them most of the season before a foot injury vs. Temple. Evan Prater was just 10 of 26 against Tulane. Meanwhile Louisville is without Malik Cunningham and several other key offensive players. It's no wonder the over/under fell from an already-low 44.5 to 38.5. Brock Domann hasn't been great but Louisville is more of a ground team.
The coaching situation might provide motivation (or not) for Louisville, but on the field, not having their starting QB and a truckload of receivers will affect Cincinnati more negatively. Neither team looks poised to score many points, which ought to keep the game close.
Prediction: Louisville 20, Cincinnati 10
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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