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Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, NC
When: Friday, December 30 at 12 noon ET
TV: ESPN
#23 NC State Wolfpack (8-4) vs. Maryland Terrapins (7-5)
Former ACC-mates clash in Charlotte; the all-time series is actually tied at 33-33-4.
Vegas line/spread: NC State by 2 (over/under 45.5)
Another surprise line, it seems I've lost track of some of these teams and didn't realize how low North Carolina State actually ranks in power ratings despite their #23 designation by the Committee. The over/under started at 48 and has dropped quite a bit, while the line has flipped from Maryland to NC State and on game day was 2 points.
Strength power rating: #33 Maryland 21, #49 NC State 19
Best/Worst removed: Maryland 21-19
Turnover corrected: Maryland 22-18
We are giving NC State partial home field for the in-state game (not much since it's not too far from Maryland either) and it pretty much makes our line match the oddsmakers' line. Yes, NC State only ranks #49 in our All-Division power rating, I was surprised too. Turnover correction expands the forecast to 4 points for the Terps.
Note that we're showing a very low scoring game, even lower than the already low over/under.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -1.5 Spread |
| Maryland | 53.5% | 50.7% |
| NC State | 46.5% | 49.3% |
Maryland barely wins half the contests, and spotting NC State the initial spread makes it almost even, but not quite. With the updated spread which favors NC State, the Terps cover about 55% of the time.
When NC State has the ball
| NC State scoring offense(adj): #87 |
Maryland scoring defense(adj): #27 |
| NC State rushing offense(raw): #107 |
Maryland rushing defense(raw): #52 |
| NC State passing offense(raw): #77 | Maryland passing defense(raw): #60 |
North Carolina State isn't know for its offensive production, and the Wolfpack's adjusted scoring offense bears this out. Their rushing and passing aren't quite as bad as their raw numbers make them look but it's close. Meanwhile Maryland has a borderline top 25 defense and they defend the run and pass well enough to greatly slow down the Wolfpack. North Carolina State's leading passer has 1,265 yards and he's entering the transfer portal. Their leading rusher has 530 yards. One Maryland d-back is opting out so that might help things slightly in the passing game.
When Maryland has the ball
| Maryland scoring offense(adj): #41 |
NC State scoring defense(adj): #18 |
| Maryland rushing offense(raw): #70 |
NC State rushing defense(raw): #11 |
| Maryland passing offense(raw): #40 | NC State passing defense(raw): #65 |
Maryland's offense isn't the greatest but compared to NC State's it's more than adequate. The Wolfpack defense, however, is pretty stout and the Terrapins will not have an easy time. It's no wonder the over/under is low for this game—and why our power rating has it even lower, at 40 points. Making matters a bit worse, Maryland is losing their #2, #4 and #8 receivers who are opting out of the bowl game. They still have plenty of targets for QB Taulia Tagovailoa (2,878 yards, 17:6) but that's cutting it a bit thin.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): NC State: #3 Maryland: #64
North Carolina State has the FPI's #3 rated special teams unit while Maryland is just average. This encompasses a lot but areas where NC State excels includes kickoff returns (#11) and field goal percentage (#10), both of which mean they need to gain fewer yards on offense (their weakness) per point scored.
NC State's season (8-4) • SOS: #52
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 6-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1
- @East Carolina 21-20
- Charleston Southern 55-3
- Texas Tech 27-14
- Connecticut 41-10
- @#7 Clemson 20-30
- #13 Florida St 19-17
- @Syracuse 9-24
- Virginia Tech 22-21
- Wake Forest 30-21
- Boston College 20-21
- @Louisville 10-25
- @North Carolina 30-27 2OT
North Carolina State played great in their first six games, beating four bowl teams (yes, UConn made it), and losing only to #7 Clemson on the road by 10 points. But starting QB Devon Leary got hurt in the FSU win and the Wolfpack had to use a hodgepodge assembly of three quarterbacks to replace him game by game. With no consistency on offense for the rest of the season NC State dropped three more games, including a home loss to Boston College. They managed to hit their previous heights just twice: beating Wake Forest and beating North Carolina on the road in double overtime.
Maryland's season (7-5) • SOS: #32
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-3
- Buffalo 31-10
- @UNC-Charlotte 56-21
- SMU 34-27
- @#2 Michigan 27-34
- Michigan St 27-13
- Purdue 29-31
- @Indiana 38-33
- Northwestern 31-24
- @Wisconsin 10-23
- @#11 Penn State 0-30
- #4 Ohio State 30-43
- Rutgers 37-0
Like NC State, Maryland played a great first half of the season, or at least, first five games. The Terps beat two bowl teams, played great at #2 Michigan losing by just a touchdown, and handled Michigan State pretty easily. Then they took a step down after the heartbreaking Purdue loss where a missed 2-point conversion was the difference at the end. They barely beat Indiana and Northwestern and were crushed by Wisconsin. The low point was the shutout loss to Penn State. Following that, the Ohio State loss was a huge improvement, and they ended the year with a shutout of their own, 37-0 over Rutgers.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
For NC State, QB Devin Leary (1,265 yards, 11:4) is in the transfer portal; they have played three other QBs during the season.
For Maryland: Opting out are DB Deonte Banks (38 tackles, 1 int), and WR Jacob Copeland, #4 in yardage with 376. #2 WR Rakim Jarrett (471 yds) has now opted out as well after being listed as questionable earlier. And also WR Dontay Demus (#8 w/233 yds).
Questionable: NC State #2 RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye; and #2 QB MJ Morris.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: #23 NC State clearly has the better "résumé" at 8-4 and six wins over bowl teams to Maryland's 2, so it's probably annoying to the Wolfpack that unranked Maryland is the favorite. That's often a good source of motivation.
- Location: Charlotte is 2-3 hours from NC State's campus and in-state, which is usually an edge. We have applied it here but they're not too much closer than Maryland's campus 6 hours away, really. It will make a difference for fan support, though.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Neither side has had an exodus of players to the portal, just a few here and there. NC State was 9-3 last year but the Holiday Bowl was cancelled. Maryland was 6-6 last year and did go bowling.
- Momentum: Both teams have a bit of negative and positive momentum. NC State lost 3 of the last 4, Maryland 2 of 3, but both got a win at the end. For NC State it was a bigger win over rival UNC, but at the same time winning a rivalry game is often a bigger deal than the bowl game that follows.
For NC State, the fact that last year's bowl was cancelled should make them happy to go to a bowl game, but it's not quite the same as getting there from improving; they actually were one win better last season. Still, they could put all their bowl enthusiasm into this trip instead. Maryland improved by a game which is not that much of a boost in emotion.
I wonder if NC State is a bit pissed at Maryland being the favorite? If they do end up winning this game, I'm sure you'll hear the players say they knew they were better and wanted to prove it. But if they lose of course, they won't say that.
Final analysis
This looks like a really low scoring game, so it could remain within reach for the entire 60 minutes. The offenses are bad enough even before the missing players; we're assuming the questionable ones will play (they almost always do) otherwise we might be in the single digits given how solid the defenses are in comparison.
Maryland has the edge because they have a functional offense, led by an actual quarterback. NC State's quarterback brigade has battled injuries all season and now the #1 is transferring while #2 might still be injured, meaning #3—Ben Finley, who had been demoted to running the scout team—might get the start for the bowl. He was bad against Louisville but solid against North Carolina. He had them almost playing as well as they did with Leary in the first half of the season...but can the team get as hyped to play Maryland as they did to play their in-state rival Tar Heels? Very doubtful.
NC State does have a decided advantage in special teams, so if the game is close and they play the field position game it could lead to a win. In a defensive battle with few points, punting and fielding can make a huge difference. It's probably the Wolfpack's best strategy, really, as Maryland seems to be a little better everywhere else.
Both teams played well early, faded, then recovered. Maryland faded less and recovered more, and they've got their house in order on offense compared to the Wolfpack. We are cutting a few points off Maryland for losing so many receivers, but still take them to win. Update: The line has moved to make NC State the favorite so this is now an upset pick.
Prediction: Maryland 21, NC State 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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