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Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Friday, December 16 at 3:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#24 Troy Trojans (11-2) vs. #25 UTSA Roadrunners (11-2)
Two ranked, 11-2 teams? Can't do better than that for the first day of bowl games.
Vegas line/spread: UTSA by 2 1/2 (over/under 56)
Should be a close game as seen by the teams' records and the narrow spread. Troy was favored by 1 when we reviewed the game; the day before the game UTSA was a 1 point favorite, and now it's up to 2 1/2. The o/u is up from 54 1/2 to 56 after peaking at 57.
Strength power rating: #57 UTSA 26, #63 Troy 24
Best/Worst removed: UTSA 26-25
Turnover corrected: UTSA 26-25
Unlike the oddsmakers our power rating takes the Roadrunners as the close victor.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -1 Spread |
| Troy | 49.7% | 46.2% |
| UTSA | 50.3% | 53.8% |
Can't get much closer than that: of 169 cross-compared performances UTSA wins 85 and loses 84. This is really a case where anything can happen, and overtime wouldn't be a surprise. We show Troy's odds as the 1 point favorite, so those are approximately reversed with UTSA as the favorite (either team covers at -1 about 46% of the time)
When Troy has the ball
| Troy scoring offense(adj): #97 |
UTSA scoring defense(adj): #70 |
| Troy rushing offense(raw): #106 |
UTSA rushing defense(raw): #70 |
| Troy passing offense(raw): #47 | UTSA passing defense(raw): #100 |
Troy's not great on offense while UTSA is fairly sound on defense. Though they run the ball pretty often their focus should be passing where they have a solid edge on UTSA's pass defense.
When UTSA has the ball
| UTSA scoring offense(adj): #45 |
Troy scoring defense(adj): #32 |
| UTSA rushing offense(raw): #50 |
Troy rushing defense(raw): #22 |
| UTSA passing offense(raw): #12 | Troy passing defense(raw): #38 |
The Roadrunners have a pretty good offense, but again the opposing defense is up to the task as Troy has a near top 25 quality D. They're particularly good against the run, which makes UTSA's prolific passing game key. Frank Harris is a dual-threat QB with a 31:7 ratio.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Troy: #60 UTSA: #36
A slight edge for UTSA here.
Troy's season (11-2) • SOS: #109
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 6-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- @Mississippi 10-28
- Alabama A&M 38-17
- @Appalachian St 28-32
- Marshall 16- 7
- @Western Kentucky 34-27
- Southern Miss 27-10
- Texas St-San Marcos 17-14
- @South Alabama 10- 6
- @Louisiana-Lafayette 23-17
- Army 10- 9
- Louisiana-Monroe 34-16
- @Arkansas St 48-19
- Coastal Carolina 45-26
Troy lost 2 of their first three then charged to an 11-2 season and Sun Belt championship and Playoff Committee top 25 ranking. They have one non-conference loss (to Ole Miss, understandable) and didn't lose at home. Overall a pretty consistent effort, too, going 6-2 against the bowl field and finishing strong at the end.
UTSA's season (11-2) • SOS: #85
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- Houston 35-37 3OT
- @Army 41-38 OT
- @#20 Texas 20-41
- Texas Southern 52-24
- @Middle Tennessee St 45-30
- Western Kentucky 31-28
- @Florida Int'l 30-10
- North Texas 31-27
- @UAB 44-28 2OT
- Louisiana Tech 51-7
- @Rice 41-7
- UTEP 34-31
- North Texas 48-27
Very similar to Troy, UTSA lost two of their first three then roared to a C-USA championship and Committee top 25 ranking at 11-2. They played really well in their last four games, with their 3 best efforts over this span. Also probably their worst, but they still beat UTEP.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
2nd leading rusher Brenden Brady is questionable for UTSA.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Troy is a very slim favorite, neither school will feel slighted
- Location: Orlando, no big difference. Troy is closer but both are 1 time zone away in the same direction
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Both teams should be very motivated
- Momentum: Exactly the same for both teams for this year, as they followed the exact same track all year. But Troy didn't make a bowl game last year at 5-7 while UTSA was 12-1 in the 2021 regular season.
There's very little to go by here except maybe Troy is more psyched by their 11-2 finish than UTSA, as the Roadrunners were 12-2 overall last season. It's hard to imagine that UTSA won't be just as hyped after winning 10 straight games though.
Final analysis
This should be a great game, and a close game, and it's basically a coin flip between two great Group of Five teams. I would be very surprised if one blew out the other, and wouldn't be surprised if this game went into overtime. Hard to pick a winner between Vegas and our power rating, both of which show a hair's difference between the teams. Honestly if games still could end in a tie that's what I'd pick, so let's call it overtime and look at both team's red zone play to determine who wins in overtime.
Troy red zone offense: #95
UTSA red zone defense: #27
UTSA red zone offense: #17
Troy red zone defense: #57
There you have it, UTSA looks like the overtime winner.
Prediction: UTSA 33, Troy 30 OT
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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