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Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX
When: Monday, January 2 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#10 USC Trojans (11-2) vs. #16 Tulane Green Wave (11-2)
At the beginning of the season who could have seen this matchup coming? Maybe in mid-December but for a New Year's Day-ish bowl game?
Vegas line/spread: USC by 2 (over/under 64)
The line has stayed pretty tight around USC as a slight favorite, up from 1 1/2 to 2 and staying near there for the last few weeks up to game day. The o/u is up 2 points.
Strength power rating: #11 USC 36, #24 Tulane 32
Best/Worst removed: USC 37-32
Turnover corrected: Tulane 35-34
USC is a 4-5 point favorite in our Strength power rating, as Tulane doesn't quite match their Committee ranking. Since USC has the #1 turnover margin in the country, the points from those turnovers boosts their power rating a lot. And since turnovers are largely random and don't continue into the future with a great degree of likelihood, factoring them out can give a more accurate picture of a team's strength. USC falls from #11 to #27 without their turnover margin, making Tulane a 1 point favorite! The bottom line is, USC needs turnover margin to be a top ten team; without it, they're borderline top 25.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2.5 Spread |
| USC | 62% | 57.4% |
| Tulane | 38% | 42.6% |
These numbers from the game-comparison system make sense given that USC's average game is a 4-point win.
When USC has the ball
| USC scoring offense(adj): #6 |
Tulane scoring defense(adj): #28 |
| USC rushing offense(raw): #51 |
Tulane rushing defense(raw): #73 |
| USC passing offense(raw): #5 | Tulane passing defense(raw): #18 |
It's hard to compare teams with different schedule strengths, but the Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense numbers are corrected for schedule, so we can confidently state that USC has a top ten offense while Tulane's defense is borderline top 25. The rest of the numbers need investigation, but it's clear that USC likes to pass more than run—particularly since leading rusher Travis Dye (884 yards) was lost for the season in mid-November—and Tulane's pass defense is pretty good. And as it turns out, the teams' SOS aren't that far apart.
Newly-crowned Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams (4,075 yards, 37:4 ratio) is coming off an injury and is officially "questionable" but says he's going to play. The oddsmakers aren't so sure, or certain that he'll be 100%. It's a big plus for the Trojans, obviously. if he's fully healthy, or rather a huge minus if he isn't. Tulane's defense is pretty good, and if he's still hobbled it could be a long night as USC's protection isn't the best.
When Tulane has the ball
| Tulane scoring offense(adj): #37 |
USC scoring defense(adj): #61 |
| Tulane rushing offense(raw): #30 |
USC rushing defense(raw): #62 |
| Tulane passing offense(raw): #58 | USC passing defense(raw): #112 |
Tulane's offense is good, not great, but that's okay since USC's defense is very average. And not good against the pass, even if the raw figures are bit harsher than reality. Tulane's Tyjae Spears has rushed for 1,376 yards and 15 TDs while QB Michael Pratt is a dual threat: he has 10 rushing TDs of his own to go with his 25:5 passing ratio. The Green Wave has several long ball threat receivers, too, just the kind that hurt the Trojans all year. Shane Watts and Duece Watts average 19.8 and 18.5 yards per reception.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): USC: #83 Tulane: #46
Tulane has the edge here but it's probably not one that will affect the game much.
USC's season (11-2) • SOS: #45
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-2
- Rice 66-14
- @Stanford 41-28
- Fresno St 45-17
- @Oregon St 17-14
- Arizona St 42-25
- Washington St 30-14
- @#8 Utah 42-43
- @Arizona 45-37
- California 41-35
- Colorado 55-17
- @UCLA 48-45
- #21 Notre Dame 38-27
- =#8 Utah 24-47
USC's chart looks like it slopes downward, starting from an enthusiastic beginning to a tired defeat at the end. But that's almost completely caused by the first and last bars. USC's schedule was really not very hard; they played 6 bowl teams in 12 games (not counting 5-7 Rice) but ended with UCLA and Notre Dame before the Pac-12 title game. There they lost for a second time to Utah, this time emphatically instead of by 1 point. The difference was that Caleb Williams was playing hobbled and couldn't keep them in the game.
It's interesting to look at the game-by-game effect turnovers had in helping USC have a successful season. If we count each turnover as being worth 4 points (the accepted value), and note that they won the turnover battle by [4,4,2,4,0,0,1,1,0,1,3,2,-1], then if they'd had a +0 margin each game, they would have lost to Stanford, Oregon State, and UCLA in addition to both Utah games. Of course, they wouldn't have played in the 2nd one, so they'd be 8-4 now instead of 11-2.
Tulane's season (11-2) • SOS: #60
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 7-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-0
- Massachusetts 42-10
- Alcorn St 52-0
- @#9 Kansas St 17-10
- Southern Miss 24-27
- @Houston 24-21 OT
- East Carolina 24-9
- @South Florida 45-31
- Memphis 38-28
- @Tulsa 27-13
- UCF 31-38
- SMU 59-24
- @Cincinnati 27-24
- UCF 45-28
Despite playing 1-11 UMass, 1-11 USF, and FCS Alcorn State, Tulane also played nine bowl teams so their SOS is a respectable #60. After beating UMass and Alcorn by a combined 94-10 they traveled to Manhattan (Kansas) and upset the future Big Twelve champs 17-10. Maybe they got a little big-headed at that point because their next game was their worst: a 27-24 home loss to Southern Miss. The Green Wave recovered and won five straight but it looked like they wouldn't be American Athletic champs after losing at home to UCF. But they beat SMU and Cincy to get another shot and this time they won, 45-28.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
For USC on defense, starting LB Ralen Goforth is transferring. On offense #1 receiver Jordan Addison is out with an ankle injury and key offensive line starter Andrew Vorhees is injured and won't play.
For Tulane, #7 receiver Dea Dea McDougle is out with injury.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: USC is only a slim favorite against a Group of Five opponent, which might irk them a bit.
- Location: A good neutral site as it's quite a bit closer to Tulane so the fan representation should be there. USC is two time zones away.
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: I think both teams will be pretty motivated. Tulane for obvious reasons—after a 2-10 season in 2021 they're 11-2 and playing in a New Year's bowl against USC. And for USC this is also a big step up from last season's 4-8 record. Normally a team that barely missed out on the Playoff would be unmotivated, but few thought USC would be in contention for a Playoff bid back in August. And maybe Tulane isn't the big opponent they envisioned, but they're such a small favorite they can't take them lightly.
- Momentum: I suppose Tulane has quite a bit more since they won their conference title game and USC had their worst game of the season.
Definitely a mixed bag for the Trojans, as they went from a likely Playoff matchup with Georgia to a bowl game vs. Tulane. But the Cotton Bowl is better than any bowl the Trojans have been to since 2017...when they went to the Cotton Bowl. Even Caleb Williams only went to the Alamo Bowl with Oklahoma last year (though they played Oregon). Tulane is certainly going to be pumped to play USC in a big bowl game. Maybe a bit too pumped, as sometimes teams on the big stage for the first time find it rough going.
Final analysis
Tulane is taking a big step onto the national stage here, but the Group of Five game has been around since the Playoff started, and most of those teams have done really well. Boise State, Houston, and UCF scored upsets in 2014, 2015 and 2017, and no team really embarrassed itself by being blown out. Part of that is the lack of enthusiasm some of the "big name" teams have shown to being placed with the Group of Five team, clearly. USC could fall victim to that too, but in most cases the Power Five team is a huge favorite with the oddsmakers; that's not the case here. USC won't assume they're going to win this game, especially with Caleb Williams' questionable status.
Let's talk more about USC's turnovers, because it's a reason they're a top ten team and not just a top 25 team. USC is about average in recovering fumbles, but they are #2 in interceptions gained with 19, #1 in fewest lost fumbles with 2, and #3 in fewest INTs with 4. Overall their turnover margin is +21; the 2nd best is 14!
Not all of this is sustainable. USC has fumbled 11 times and only lost the ball twice. They've also recovered 8 of their opponents' 13 fumbles, slightly more than average. Clearly those recovery numbers are a "bounce of the ball" and they shouldn't have had possession around five times on average. You can argue about interceptions but they're only #21 in Passes Defended so they should probably had 13 picks instead of 19. That's 11 times they randomly gained possession, equal to perhaps 44 points or 3.4 points per game. That makes the game a tossup by our power rating. Add in Caleb Williams not being 100% and his very low INT total is in jeopardy. Let's just say that quite a bit of USC success this year has been luck, in addition to skill, and probably moreso than any other team.
How motivated will USC be? We know Tulane will come in fired up. USC has both pros and cons, but one great indication that they're "all in" is the almost complete absence of transfer portal and opt out players. That's a good sign that the team wants to play hard and win this game.
Then the real question becomes: will Caleb Williams be 100%? Because if he's not, then it's a loss for USC. We've seen how the offense runs when he's hurt, and it's not pretty. We can probably assume he'll be a lot more healthy than he was in that game, obviously, but will he be able to run the ball, and dodge tacklers and avoid sacks like he's famous for?
The injury was bad, no doubt, but Williams managed to play on it the rest of the game. Which probably made it worse, but he could run (forward at least). An injury on which you can play is not one that keeps you out of a game a month from now. So he's going to play, it's just a matter of how healed he is. And it will only get better and better. Lincoln Riley was probably preparing people for the worst, but I'm assuming Williams will play and that enthusiasm will be contagious. Meanwhile Tulane will give a hearty effort but might be a bit in over their heads.
Prediction: USC 40, Tulane 30
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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