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Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
When: Monday, January 2 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ABC
#17 LSU Tigers (9-4) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (8-5)
The Citrus Bowl is the consolation prize for the losers of the SEC and Big Ten title games.
Vegas line/spread: LSU by 15 (over/under 54)
LSU is a huge favorite over Purdue, among the biggest of the bowl season; there are about 5 bowls with a roughly 10-point line, and now this one is the biggest of them all, moving from 10 1/2 to 15, while the over sinks from 58.5 to 54.
Not only did the line make a huge move, but headlines too as betting on the game in New Jersey was suspended on Friday the 30th, and all bets placed after December 15th were voided! This was apparently due to Drew Brees, who is acting as a Purdue assistant, being affiliated with a sportsbook.
Strength power rating: #12 LSU 33, #37 Purdue 25
Best/Worst removed: LSU 33-25
Turnover corrected: LSU 33-25
The Strength power rating favors LSU by 8 points, and this doesn't change if we remove the team's upside and downside outlier, nor if we correct for the influence of turnovers (both teams have nearly an even turnover margin, so there was very little overall influence).
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -10.5 Spread |
| LSU | 67.5% | 47% |
| Purdue | 32.5% | 53% |
LSU is favored in over 2/3 of the comparisons, but the Tigers fall short of the opening spread the majority of times.
When LSU has the ball
| LSU scoring offense(adj): #28 |
Purdue scoring defense(adj): #49 |
| LSU rushing offense(raw): #45 |
Purdue rushing defense(raw): #42 |
| LSU passing offense(raw): #38 | Purdue passing defense(raw): #50 |
LSU has an edge here but it's not monstrous. The Tigers are borderline top 25 on offense and Purdue is well short of that. Due to the disparity in schedule strength LSU's advantage isn't clear from the the rushing/passing figures. From these we can just glean that LSU has a balanced offense, and that Purdue doesn't have a glaring weakness on the defensive side.
But there's clearly a key to LSU's offense: Quarterback Jayden Daniels, who leads the team in passing (2,774 yards, 16:3) and rushing yards (818, 11 TDs). Daniels is "questionable" for the game but is actually expected to be at or near 100%. We'll look at how Purdue has done against dual-threat quarterbacks in the Analysis section at the bottom. The Tiger air attack might be slowed as receivers Kayshon Boutte and Jaray Jenkins have opted out. They spread the yardage around pretty well however.
When Purdue has the ball
| Purdue scoring offense(adj): #35 |
LSU scoring defense(adj): #14 |
| Purdue rushing offense(raw): #104 |
LSU rushing defense(raw): #71 |
| Purdue passing offense(raw): #17 | LSU passing defense(raw): #40 |
Here we see Purdue's decent offense matching up with LSU's top 25 defense. And it's clear that Purdue wants to pass the ball behind Aidan O'Connell (3,490 yards, 22:13), with WR Charlie Jones (1,361) the main target. Again, LSU's defensive numbers for rush/pass are hurt by their very tough schedule, so Purdue might have less opportunity than indicated. However, LSU will be missing a starting safety who is opting out; two others are "questionable" which means we should assume they will play.
Update: A slew of Purdue opt-outs has hit the fan. First and foremost, QB Aidan O'Connell. Also Charlie Jones and TE Payne Durham, #1 and #2 receivers with 1,361 and 560 yards each. This changes the complexion of the offense quite a bit. 6th-year senior Austin Burton (199, 3:1) will take over; he's accurate in limited action, completing 24 of 32 passes.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): LSU: #130 Purdue: #84
LSU surprisingly has almost the worst special teams in the country. Purdue isn't very far ahead, though.
LSU's season (9-4) • SOS: #1
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 6-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-3
- #13 Florida St 23-24
- Southern U. 65-17
- #22 Mississippi St 31-16
- New Mexico 38-0
- @Auburn 21-17
- #6 Tennessee 13-40
- @Florida 45-35
- Mississippi 45-20
- #5 Alabama 32-31 OT
- @Arkansas 13-10
- UAB 41-10
- @Texas A&M 23-38
- @#1 Georgia 30-50
LSU didn't start the Brian Kelly era well with a home loss to a questionable FSU team (that turned out to be quite good and finished #13). Their next four wins weren't all that great and they got clobbered by Tennessee 40-13. But the next five wins—in particular the overtime win vs. Alabama—put them in the running to be the first 2-loss team in the Playoff. That all died with the A&M upset loss, and the 50-30 loss to Georgia suggests there wasn't really much hope. But it has to be disheartening to blow it before you even get your shot.
LSU ended up with the toughest aggregate schedule in the nation, playing 5 top 25 teams and 9 bowl teams—and 2 others were 5-7.
Purdue's season (8-5) • SOS: #27
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- #11 Penn State 31-35
- Indiana St 56-0
- @Syracuse 29-32
- Florida Atlantic 28-26
- @Minnesota 20-10
- @Maryland 31-29
- Nebraska 43-37
- @Wisconsin 24-35
- Iowa 3-24
- @Illinois 31-24
- Northwestern 17-9
- @Indiana 30-16
- =#2 Michigan 22-43
Purdue's season got off to a bad start just like LSU's but the Boilermakers knew it was going to be tough to beat Penn State. They played pretty well and crushed Indiana State 56-0 in their 2nd game, but lost a wild game at Syracuse and weren't looking hopeful at 1-2. The 2-point home Florida Atlantic win didn't convince anyone otherwise.
But the Minnesota and Maryland road wins turned things around and soon they were 5-2. With the Big Ten West completely wide open, Purdue seemingly blew their title shot with losses Wisconsin and Iowa. But three wins later, enough teams had collapsed that Purdue emerged the West winner. Their prize was a 43-22 drubbing by Michigan. And a trip to the Citrus Bowl.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
After having almost no opt-outs, everything fell apart soon after coach Brohm left. Purdue's #3 RB Kobe Lewis (146 yards) was the only one in the portal, but he's been joined by starting QB Aiden O'Connell and #1 and #2 receivers Charlie Jones and Payne Durham. On defense, starting corner Cory Trice is in the opting out as well.
For LSU, the Tigers #2 and #3 receivers have opted out. On defense starting safety Jay Ward is opting out of the bowl, along with starting DE BJ Ojulari. Two other d-backs are listed as questionable.
So is quarterback Jayden Daniels who re-aggravated his ankle injury against Georgia, but he has a full month to get ready, and coach Brian Kelly said on Dec. 4th that Daniels would be at 100% for the bowl game.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: LSU is a solid favorite. Maybe too solid, is there a chance they get overconfident? I think maybe so, but it might not matter too much.
- Location: Neutral site in Orlando; the relative distances and fan support suggests it will be a partisan LSU crowd. We didn't adjust for that in our power rating estimates.
- Coaching: Purdue coach Jeff Brohm was hired away by Louisville; interestingly, the interim coach will be his brother Brian Brohm.
- Motivation: LSU probably has a motivation problem facing an also-ran Big Ten team when they were poised to make the Playoff until they blew it. Purdue's problem is being motivated now that their coach left. LSU did have a much better season than last year's 6-6, while Purdue was 8-4 last year too.
- Momentum: Both teams ended on a bum note, getting blasted by a 13-0 team.
Neither team is in great shape motivation-wise. Expectations got ahead of LSU and they finished with two losses. Purdue's finish wasn't as bad, as they hardly expected to beat Michigan and for a while didn't look like they'd win the Big Ten West. The Boilermakers are undoubtedly more psyched to have an opponent like LSU than vice versa. But then their coach leaves and that's all up in the air. It seems to make little predictable difference, though teams whose coach is leaving seem to do fairly well; they get over it and focus on the game, unless there's a big sense of betrayal, I suppose. And with his brother, Brian Brohm filling in, it makes it better maybe? Or at least kind of weird. Even weirder: Drew Brees is going to be an assistant coach for the game.
Final analysis
LSU and Purdue are both conference runner-ups, but neither of them can claim to be the 2nd best team in their conference. LSU was close at one time, but Purdue never was. The disparity in accomplishment shows why LSU is ranked by the Committee and Purdue isn't: LSU has a 6-3 record against bowl teams, Purdue's is 3-5.
In bowl games like these with a big favorite who (let's be honest) doesn't think much of the opposing football program, there's always the chance of complacency and an upset. And LSU is ripe for one after losing their last two games. The Georgia game means nothing, that loss was obvious. But the game before against Texas A&M was a pretty bad sign. And you'd think they were a lot more motivated to win that game than they will be to beat Purdue.
Purdue has faced three dual-threat quarterbacks this year: Garrett Shrader of Syracuse, N'Kosi Perry of FAU, and J.J. McCarthy of Michigan. Purdue did pretty bad in all those games, losing to Syracuse and Michigan and only beating FAU 28-26. And none of those three can run nearly as well as Jayden Daniels. This alone almost takes away the chance of me picking Purdue to pull off the upset.
Not that they can't play well and exceed expectations. I don't think the coaching change will affect them all that much, they're playing in a big game and had to know Brohm would go to Louisville at some point. The fact that his brother is sticking around to coach the team is interesting. It provides a lot of continuity.
So with that established—a good performance by Purdue but they can't overcome Jayden Daniels, who we are assuming is 100% after a month of healing—we're just going with the Strength power rating's judgement here, which stayed the same regardless of filtering out best and worst game, or correcting for turnovers.
Update: But it didn't filter out the effect of Purdue's offense losing its QB and two top targets. Now starting a 6th-year senior who has started one game before, and with Brian Brohm and Drew Brees coaching, this is getting surreal. I'm downgrading Purdue a bit but keeping it short of a blowout, as LSU probably isn't going to even think they have to try now. And maybe they don't. But even if they build a big lead they'll probably just want to get off the field—I just don't see them keeping their foot on the gas, which could allow Purdue to almost catch up. Almost.
Prediction: LSU 33, Purdue 20
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