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Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando, FL
When: Thursday, December 29 at 5:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#13 Florida State Seminoles (9-3) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6)
A matchup of college football royalty, one on an upswing the other having a down year.
Vegas line/spread: Florida State by 9 1/2 (over/under 65)
Not a surprise here that FSU is favored by around a touchdown (now 9 1/2 before game day). The game should be higher scoring than normal. The line has moved up 2 points while the o/u is down a point.
Strength power rating: #13 Florida St 36, #23 Oklahoma 30
Best/Worst removed: Florida St 35-30
Turnover corrected: Florida St 37-29
Florida State is #13 in the Strength power rating as well as the Committee rankings. We give them partial home field advantage here for playing in-state and much closer than Oklahoma, and our spread is still short of the Vegas line. That spread tightens when we remove the extreme games (taking away Oklahoma's 49-0 loss to Texas) and widens when we correct for the outsize influence of turnovers.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7.5 Spread |
| Florida St | 61% | 42% |
| Oklahoma | 39% | 58% |
FSU wins most of the game-comparisons straight up but doesn't cover most of the time.
When Florida St has the ball
| Florida St scoring offense(adj): #13 |
Oklahoma scoring defense(adj): #54 |
| Florida St rushing offense(raw): #12 |
Oklahoma rushing defense(raw): #108 |
| Florida St passing offense(raw): #42 | Oklahoma passing defense(raw): #108 |
FSU has a strong offense while Oklahoma's defense let it down again this year. Note that the raw figures for the Sooner defense are pretty ridiculous, as they play in the Big Twelve which plays very fast. The actual quality of their rushing and passing defense is likely about the same as their scoring defense—poor for a Power Five school, but not atrocious. Either way, FSU should be able to move the ball under QB Jordan Travis (2, 796 yards, 22:4). Oklahoma is missing a defensive lineman to the transfer portal, too.
When Oklahoma has the ball
| Oklahoma scoring offense(adj): #18 |
Florida St scoring defense(adj): #29 |
| Oklahoma rushing offense(raw): #13 |
Florida St rushing defense(raw): #61 |
| Oklahoma passing offense(raw): #45 | Florida St passing defense(raw): #3 |
Oklahoma's offense is a match for FSU's but they're playing a tougher defense. The Seminoles rank particularly well against the pass, so QB Dillon Gabriel (2,925, 24:6) will have a tough time winning the QB duel. He may be forced to throw if their preferred running game stalls due to the loss of NFL-bound Eric Gray, leader with 1,364 yards, as well as two starters on the offensive line. That raises pass protection issues, too, and FSU has 34 sacks on the season. In short, there are many more problems here for Oklahoma than FSU faces when they have the ball, when under normal circumstances they are comparable.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Florida St: #71 Oklahoma: #78
No major difference here.
Florida St's season (9-3) • SOS: #53
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-2
- Duquesne 47-7
- @#17 LSU 24-23
- @Louisville 35-31
- Boston College 44-14
- Wake Forest 21-31
- @#23 North Carolina St 17-19
- #7 Clemson 28-34
- Georgia Tech 41-16
- @Miami FL 45-3
- @Syracuse 38-3
- Louisiana-Lafayette 49-17
- Florida 45-38
Florida State was a wild card coming into 2022, supposed to be good this year but we've heard that before right? The win over LSU wasn't a big deal because it was seen at the time as proof LSU wasn't very good. At 4-0 they were a team waiting to be exposed, and Wake Forest did it, sort of. They didn't get embarrassed by the Deacons, and they played NC State really close, and they even gave Clemson a scare. But they were 4-3 now and out of the Playoff picture and the ACC title picture halfway through the season. Under the radar now they built up a solid résumé with 5 straight wins, the first four by an average of 33.5 points. They seemed to get better every week, something the chart reflects visually. The Seminoles ended up #12 in the Committee rankings, pretty good for a team that went 5-7 last year.
Oklahoma's season (6-6) • SOS: #18
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-3
- UTEP 45-13
- Kent St 33-3
- @Nebraska 49-14
- #9 Kansas St 34-41
- @#3 TCU 24-55
- =#20 Texas 0-49
- Kansas 52-42
- @Iowa St 27-13
- Baylor 35-38
- @West Virginia 20-23
- Oklahoma St 28-13
- @Texas Tech 48-51
There wasn't much hint that Oklahoma's season was about to collapse. The Sooners won easily two to open the year and then lambasted former Big 8 rival Nebraska 49-14 in Lincoln. Not much resistance was expected at home vs. Kansas State, but who knew then that the Wildcats would be Big 12 champs? After that loss they faced TCU—future Playoff team TCU—and got beat bad, 55-24. They tried to regroup for Texas but they hit bottom, losing 49-0. It looked very possible the Sooners would lose every remaining game based on their trajectory, but they came back with two solid wins and though they finished 1-3 they played pretty well overall and managed to beat rival Oklahoma State. The Sooner went from way overrated to way underrated pretty quickly but made it to a bowl game—probably not the one they envisioned at the season's start.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Oklahoma starting defensive lineman Jalen Redmond is in the transfer portal; on offense, running back Eric Gray (1,364 yards) is in the portal along with starting O-linemen Anton Harrison and Wanya Morris. #4 wide receiver Theo Wease is now listed as well. No major players from FSU are in the portal.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: FSU is the favorite; that seems reasonable, but it seems low given everything about Oklahoma's transfer portal and probable attitude toward this game. Do the oddsmakers/sharps know something that is mitigating the spread? It's possible that they're sticking pretty close to actual power ratings, as ours gives 6 points. It seems like a lot of people are picking this game big for Florida State so it's a bit surprising the line isn't moving up. Update: Now it has moved up, to the point the Sooners might feel disrespected or FSU get overconfident.
- Location: Orlando is several hours from Tallahassee but it's in-state and a lot closer than Oklahoma, whose fans might sit this one out. We have given FSU partial home field consideration in our power rating spread.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Oklahoma didn't think they would be in the Cheez-It Bowl at the beginning of the season, but mid-season they might not have expected any bowl. Still has to be a letdown from their recent level of success. FSU on the other hand is back bowling after a sizable drought and their strongest season in years.
- Momentum: Both teams had an early 3-game skid and rebounded from it—Oklahoma a little bit, FSU a lot. Florida State closed with five straight wins and if momentum is real, they carry it.
FSU clearly has the edge here, with a big rebound season while Oklahoma has its worst year in almost a quarter century.
Final analysis
Even under normal circumstances this looks like an FSU win. And the Sooners haven't played bad at all the last six games, even though they lost three of them. Two things make them a much worse underdog though.
One is speculative: their motivation. It might seem obvious that they're not psyched about going 6-6, but we don't know for sure. And there are even some narratives that maybe they're going to be inspired by playing FSU and represent the school and its history by making sure they don't have a losing record, which would be the first since 1998. That could happen.
But the other factor is more concrete: the amount of players they are losing to the transfer portal. Not only will this materially impact their performance, but it's also more evidence of the above point: that they really aren't crazy about how their season went and don't really want to be here.
And even if it were just that, you could say the effect won't be too great, but you have to add in Florida State's surge this year from last year's 5-7. They've looked better and better as the season went on, and they get to play a big name opponent.
With all of that in the mix, I foresee a good old-fashioned Florida State beatdown being delivered. I have the feeling it's going to look like the 90s again for one night.
Prediction: Florida State 41, Oklahoma 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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