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Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, AL
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN
Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) vs. Buffalo Bulls (6-6)
Another in an endless array of 6-6 bowl games.
Vegas line/spread: GA Southern by 5 1/2 (over/under 67)
Georgia Southern is favored, and it's been growing, up from 3 1/2 early. The over/under is down from 67.5.
Strength power rating: #88 GA Southern 35, #109 Buffalo 32
Best/Worst removed: GA Southern 35-31
Turnover corrected: GA Southern 37-30
We give a score of 35-32 which is a 3 point spread but the numbers have to be rounded to make a proper score; the actual spread is 3.55 points, right on the dot of the early line for the game. And if we were forced to pick vs. the spread just by our power rating we would give it to Georgia Southern based on playing closer to home.
That advantage stretches to 7 points if we pull out the undue influence of turnovers on team ratings. Buffalo's worth is inflated by their turnover margin, and Georgia Southern is slightly diminished. When we correct for this, the Eagles are a full touchdown better than the Bulls.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3.5 Spread |
| GA Southern | 63% | 55.6% |
| Buffalo | 37% | 44.4% |
Although the Strength power rating's spread is 3.55 points, spotting Buffalo 3.5 points doesn't bring things to the near 50/50 proposition you would expect; Georgia Southern still covers 56% of the time. That's due to the distribution of game ratings and how they compare to each other. Either the Eagles have some high scores that push their mean rating up, or Buffalo had some dud games that lower their mean. Or both. That's why the average score margin doesn't have to be the 50/50 fulcrum (in math terms, the mean and median aren't the same). The 50/50 fulcrum for the game-comparisons is 5.15 points.
When GA Southern has the ball
| GA Southern scoring offense(adj): #52 |
Buffalo scoring defense(adj): #94 |
| GA Southern rushing offense(raw): #83 |
Buffalo rushing defense(raw): #100 |
| GA Southern passing offense(raw): #4 | Buffalo passing defense(raw): #54 |
Georgia Southern's offense compares favorably to Buffalo's defense. And in this case it's probably okay to compare the raw numbers, since the teams play a very similar level of schedule. That means Georgia Southern's passing attack, while not really the 4th best in the nation, should be able to have a lot of success against Buffalo's #54 (it's a lot worse than that, but whatever) pass defense. QB Kyle Vantrease has 3,901 yards and 25 TDs and 15 picks. That last number might be a concern as Buffalo has 12 picks this year—led by Marcus Fuqua with 7. Also, two of the Eagles' top receivers are out for the year.
When Buffalo has the ball
| Buffalo scoring offense(adj): #82 |
GA Southern scoring defense(adj): #121 |
| Buffalo rushing offense(raw): #74 |
GA Southern rushing defense(raw): #129 |
| Buffalo passing offense(raw): #62 | GA Southern passing defense(raw): #101 |
The good news for Buffalo is that Georgia Southern has such a terrible defense it should make the Bulls' sluggish offense look good. Both the run game and pass game should find success.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): GA Southern: #24 Buffalo: #94
The Eagles have the special teams edge according to ESPN's FPI.
GA Southern's season (6-6) • SOS: #126
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- Morgan St 59-7
- @Nebraska 45-42
- @UAB 21-35
- Ball St 34-23
- @Coastal Carolina 30-34
- @Georgia St 33-41
- James Madison 45-38
- @Old Dominion 28-23
- South Alabama 31-38
- @Louisiana-Lafayette 17-36
- Marshall 10-23
- Appalachian St 51-48 2OT
Georgia Southern started with a bang, following up a 59-7 win over Morgan State with a 45-42 win over Nebraska in Lincoln, and put the final nail in Scott Frost's coaching grave. It turned out Nebraska wasn't good and the wins slowed down a lot, but they had some successes like beating James Madison and the double overtime win over Appalachian State, their only two wins over winning teams.
Buffalo's season (6-6) • SOS: #125
Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- @Maryland 10-31
- Holy Cross 31-37
- @Coastal Carolina 26-38
- @Eastern Michigan 50-31
- Miami Ohio 24-20
- @Bowling Green 38-7
- @Massachusetts 34-7
- Toledo 34-27
- @Ohio U. 24-45
- @Central Michigan 27-31
- Kent St 27-30 OT
- Akron 23-22
Buffalo lost their first three games; two were completely excusable (Maryland & Coastal Carolina on the road) but one was not (losing to Holy Cross at home). But the Bulls won five straight games with style after that, beating four bowl teams in the process. At this point we projected Buffalo to win out and be MAC champs but they lost their next three, and though they got their final win, beating hapless 2-10 Akron by a point at home to get to a bowl game, I can't think of a more pathetic entry into the bowl world. It's akin to needing to run a 20 minute mile and running 19:55—you did it, but who the fuck is impressed?
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Two receivers for Georgia Southern were lost in mid-November for the season: Derwin Burgess Jr (#2 with 717 yards) and Amare Jones (#4 with 483). Buffalo's 2nd-leading rusher Ron Cook Jr. is questionable for the game.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Georgia Southern is a slight favorite.
- Location: Montgomery is a lot closer for Georgia Southern, but it's still 5 hours away and in a different time zone. While Georgia Southern will have more fans in the stadium the effect on the game is hard to gauge. We didn't give any home field advantage in our estimates above but this might be something to consider. Normally unless it's in-state, there's no consideration but in this case fan difference could be stark. In fact thinking about it now this has to be worth a point or so, the crowd might be all GS.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Georgia Southern improved from 3-9 to 6-6 this year and won in double overtime to make it to the bowl game; that's worth something. Buffalo improved from 4-8 so they should be a bit happy at least, but their win over Akron doesn't inspire confidence.
- Momentum: Both teams closed the season in the same way—losing three games and winning the last one to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl game. The final win is important for momentum, too, but although both teams barely won—the Eagles in double overtime and Buffalo by a point—the wins are totally different. Georgia Southern beat an actual good team, Appalachian State, while Buffalo could barely be bothered to beat lowly Akron at home.
Georgia Southern might not be super-hyped for bowl season but it's hard to believe Buffalo really cares. If you're trying to get to a bowl and want to be there, you beat Akron by 50 points.
Final analysis
This game has really got me thinking about home field advantage and when and how much it applies. In general these are the "rules":
- Playing in your own home stadium: full home field advantage (normally 3.5 points in the FBS, this year is showing lower)
- Playing in your own home state, other team is very far away: partial HFA (maybe 2 points)
- Playing much closer to home than your opponent: maybe 1 point
For in-state games the opponent should be far away, like when Georgia played Oregon in Atlanta, you can't tell me that wasn't a near-home field experience. And if it's in a large state like Texas, it might not apply if you're playing LSU or a team that might physically be closer. The last category is the toughest, you aren't in-state but just are a lot closer. That's what this game is, and it's not just the 5 hour vs. 14 hour driving distance. It's the fact that the location is clearly "in the South" and so is Georgia Southern. Statesboro and Montgomery are on the exact same lattitude line, while Buffalo is definitely in the North. Home field advantage is though to be very "territorial" which is why the home stadium is important, but also home state, and in this case, home region. Are fans coming from Buffalo at all? Who knows, but Georgia Southern fans could easily make the drive and might make for a one-sided experience.
Another area to explore: Do you believe in turnovers or not? Clearly they change the game, but should their effect be subtracted out to get a better idea of what is more likely to happen in the future? This game's forecast could swing on thats. Georgia Southern's QB has thrown 15 picks this year—does that mean he's destined to throw 1 this game? Somewhere between 0 and 2? Or better just left out of the forecast since there's so much randomness? On Buffalo's side, they have 12 picks on the year, so certainly the they'll have one against a pick-prone QB right? And how can picks be random when Bulls safety Marcus Fuqua has 7 interceptions this season? Doesn't seem random to me. But everyone says that forecasts are notably better when the past effect of turnovers is removed and they are assumed to be random, unpredictable events going forward. It turns our 3.5 point forecast into a 7 point forecast for Georgia Southern, so we have to decide what to do.
Both teams are coming in with some disadvantages. Georgia Southern is down 2 of their top 4 receivers, which can't help but affect their passing game. Buffalo on the other hand either didn't want to go bowling and tried to lose against Akron, or tried to win and they're in such a terrible slump that they really suck now. Either way, not a good look for the Bulls.
Everything I look at points to the same thing—about a touchdown for Georgia Southern. Whether the turnover-subtraction score, or the teams' play over the last four games where each slumped and got a final win, I see 7 points, or 6.5 points, and I'll add one for the very partial home field, too.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 38, Buffalo 30
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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