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Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, FL
When: Tuesday, December 20 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Toledo Rockets (8-5) vs. Liberty Flames (8-4)
The Boca Raton bowl, in Boca Raton of all places.
Vegas line/spread: Toledo by 3 1/2 (over/under 54)
Toledo is a clear but slim favorite to win a moderate-scoring game. The line went up from 4 1/2 to 5, then back down to 3 1/2, while the over/under bumped up from 53.5 to 54 then fell to 53.
Strength power rating: #92 Liberty 28.93, #94 Toledo 28.87
Best/Worst removed: Liberty 30-28
Turnover corrected: Toledo 30-29
The Strength power rating basically calls for a tie, or if less than a 0.5 difference is one overtime, and <0.25 is two overtimes, then it's calling for 4 overtimes.
This is a good time to look at the alternate measures listed, like Best/Worst removed which implements the "skating judges" system where the high and low game rating are thrown out and the remaining games averaged. This obviously works best later in the season when throwing out two games still leaves a representative collection. Here, Liberty becomes a 2 point favorite as they had an atrocious game that they'd rather just forget. This rating lets them do that, so if you think a team's best and worst performance were probably unrepeatable flukes, this is a good way to rate teams.
The Turnover correction removes the influence of turnovers on a team's outcome, as turnovers are essentially random and removing them gives a better picture of how good a team is going forward. Toledo improves slightly here because they've had bad turnover luck and Liberty remains mostly unchanged, giving the game to Toledo by a point.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -4.5 Spread |
| Toledo | 46.8% | 38% |
| Liberty | 53.2% | 62% |
Interestingly the winning percentage in the game-comparison system isn't nearly as much of a dead heat as the average score. We'll see later that Liberty's "average game" is being pulled down by one horrific performance and when we only tally games as wins and losses, Liberty wins the majority, and even more often against the original spread.
When Toledo has the ball
| Toledo scoring offense(adj): #69 |
Liberty scoring defense(adj): #91 |
| Toledo rushing offense(raw): #49 |
Liberty rushing defense(raw): #57 |
| Toledo passing offense(raw): #68 | Liberty passing defense(raw): #28 |
The key numbers here are the adjusted ones: the scoring offense and scoring defense. The others don't show a major advantage and aren't trustworthy as they are raw figures, and both these teams play easy schedules. So here it doesn't make sense to worry about whether Liberty really has a good pass defense. Toledo should be able to score on Liberty at a slightly above average rate based on their adjusted scoring offense rank and Liberty's adjusted scoring defense rank.
Liberty will be missing a starting linebacker and perhaps a few other defensive backups.
When Liberty has the ball
| Liberty scoring offense(adj): #74 |
Toledo scoring defense(adj): #101 |
| Liberty rushing offense(raw): #47 |
Toledo rushing defense(raw): #59 |
| Liberty passing offense(raw): #78 | Toledo passing defense(raw): #15 |
Again, we don't see a real point to the offense/defense numbers as they are all kind of middling anyway. Like Liberty Toledo shows a hard-to-believe pass defense rank and again, because they play an easy schedule it's easy to rank well in pass defense. The key numbers are the scoring offense and scoring defense, and like the case above, Liberty should be able to score on Toledo at a slightly above-average clip. As it turns out, both teams do rank well in Pass Efficiency defense per the NCAA, and that metric considers more than just raw yardage. So don't look for big passing numbers for either team!
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Toledo: #108 Liberty: #47
A big enough span to possibly make a difference. If the game is as close as our Strength ratings assume, it could come down to special teams play, especially the kicking game.
Toledo's season (8-5) • SOS: #94
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- LIU 37-0
- Massachusetts 55-10
- @#4 Ohio State 21-77
- @San Diego St 14-17
- Central Michigan 38-17
- @Northern Illinois 52-32
- Kent St 52-31
- @Buffalo 27-34
- @Eastern Michigan 27-24
- Ball St 28-21
- Bowling Green 35-42
- @Western Michigan 14-20
- =Ohio U. 17-7
Toledo's first two wins were by a score of 92-10, but they met reality against Ohio State, a 77-21 loss. They won 5 of their next 7 and held on to win the MAC West despite losing to Bowling Green and Western Michigan. They won the MAC crown with a win over Ohio.
Liberty's season (8-4) • SOS: #106
Non-conf losses: N/A • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- @Southern Miss 29-27 4OT
- UAB 21-14
- @Wake Forest 36-37
- Akron 21-12
- @Old Dominion 38-24
- @Massachusetts 42-24
- Gardner-Webb 21-20
- Brigham Young 41-14
- @Arkansas 21-19
- @Connecticut 33-36
- Virginia Tech 22-23
- New Mexico St 14-49
Liberty opened with a four-overtime win at Southern Miss, a 21-14 win over UAB, and a 1-point loss at Wake Forest. From there the Flames won 6 straight, peaking in a 41-14 win over BYU and a road win over Arkansas. At 8-1 Liberty needed to be taken seriously as a top 25 team but then they shockingly lost to UConn, then to Virginia Tech. Hugh Freeze's rumored departure may have prompted the New Mexico State meltdown at home, 49-14. A great season went really bad really fast.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
A bunch of Liberty players entered the transfer portal, but few will have any impact and some of them will still play. The only one who will not play for sure is starting LB Ahmad Walker (#3 tackler). Others who may or may not play are O-line starter Jacob Bodden; #8 receiver Jaivian Lofton; reserve DE Stephen Sings; reserve DB Dre Butler; and a handful of others (mostly linebackers) who have made no impact this season.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Toledo is a slight favorite; neither team should be overconfident or feel disrespected.
- Location: Boca Raton is a very neutral location.
- Coaching: Hugh Freeze left Liberty to go to Auburn, and it doesn't seem to have gone over well with the players.
- Motivation: The big question is Liberty and their reaction to Hugh Freeze's departure.
- Momentum: Neither team has much positive momentum but Liberty has a lot of negative momentum. Toledo won their last game pretty solidly while Liberty had their worst effort possible.
Obviously the key element in the psychology of the game is Liberty's end-of-season debacle. Losing to UConn was bad enough but the home slaughter by New Mexico State was unreal. Hugh Freeze had told his players before the game that he was considering (or taking?) the Auburn job, and they played horrifically. Now that he's gone does that make it even worse?
Final analysis
If the game is really a 4-overtime thriller, we should really be looking at red zone play of each team since that's essentially what overtime sessions are.
Toledo red zone offense: #36
Liberty red zone defense: #30
Liberty red zone offense: #95
Toledo red zone defense: #89
And well, those results would suggest the game really could go 4 overtimes, as they're evenly matched in both cases. So on to other considerations.
That consideration should be: how is Liberty going to play after having their season end in such an awful fashion? Hugh Freeze even brought that up in a press conference, saying that last year (2021) the Flames flamed out and lost their last three games but "had good bowl prep" and came out with a big win. And it's true, last year Liberty finished in terrible style but won their bowl game 56-20.
This year is different, however. First of all, Hugh Freeze isn't there to "have good bowl prep" with the team, and second, their collapse this time was unbelievable. A team can bounce back from three bad games—especially when they still rate 10 points better than the other team, like last year—but we find it hard to believe they're going to recover so swiftly under these circumstances. It's either 4 overtimes or a blowout.
Prediction: Toledo 37, Liberty 16
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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