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Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
When: Friday, December 16 at 11:30 am ET
TV: ESPN
Miami Ohio Redhawks (6-6) vs. UAB Blazers (6-6)
First game of the bowl season, appropriately two 6-6 teams face off.
Vegas line/spread: UAB by 11 (over/under 45.5)
UAB is a whopping 10+ point favorite to beat the Redhawks. That's a big spread for two Group of Five teams with the same record, and double-digit favorites are uncommon in the bowl season. The over/under is very low due to both teams having poor offenses, particularly Miami. The line is up slightly from 10 and the o/u is up from 44.
Strength power rating: #72 UAB 27, #137 Miami OH 13
Best/Worst removed: UAB 27-14
Turnover corrected: UAB 28-12
Our power rating backs up the Vegas spread, as UAB is much higher-rated than Miami. It's really that Miami is rated low, at #137 they rank below quite a few non-FBS teams.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -10 Spread |
| UAB | 81% | 57% |
| Miami OH | 19% | 43% |
UAB wins a big majority of the game comparison, even against the early 10 point spread.
When Miami OH has the ball
| Miami OH scoring offense(adj): #120 |
UAB scoring defense(adj): #52 |
| Miami OH rushing offense(raw): #80 |
UAB rushing defense(raw): #94 |
| Miami OH passing offense(raw): #121 | UAB passing defense(raw): #24 |
Miami has trouble scoring, ranking #120 out of 131 FBS teams, and they face a pretty decent UAB scoring defense. They're bad at passing and UAB defends the pass well, though these are raw numbers and teams probably want to run on UAB's poor rush defense. Miami's not great running the ball either though. Basically they have a poor offense and on paper UAB's D keeps them in check.
When UAB has the ball
| UAB scoring offense(adj): #90 |
Miami OH scoring defense(adj): #87 |
| UAB rushing offense(raw): #5 |
Miami OH rushing defense(raw): #40 |
| UAB passing offense(raw): #107 | Miami OH passing defense(raw): #85 |
UAB's offense isn't much better than Miami's but 90th is quite a bit better than 120th, and they're facing a similar quality defense, hence the prediction for an average (27 or 28) amount of points scored. The real standout stat here is UAB rushing offense at #5 in the nation. While this is unadjusted for opposition, any top ten rushing team is a ground threat, and DeWayne McBride leads the nation with 1,713 yards. Miami's rush D doesn't rank bad but that's against a weak schedule, so it's not likely they'll shut UAB and McBride down.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Miami OH: #10 UAB: #77
If there's an equalizer for Miami it will be special teams, where the Redhawks excel and the Blazers are bland.
Miami OH's season (6-6) • SOS: #116
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 0-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- @Kentucky 13-37
- Robert Morris 31-14
- Cincinnati 17-38
- @Northwestern 17-14
- @Buffalo 20-24
- Kent St 27-24
- @Bowling Green 13-17
- Western Michigan 10-16
- @Akron 27- 9
- Ohio U. 21-37
- @Northern Illinois 29-23
- Ball St 18-17
Miami started the season terribly and didn't ever play great, but finished winning 3 out of 4 to go 6-6 just like last season. Their first two losses were broken up by a terrible 31-14 win over Robert Morris that was actually their worst effort by far. They lost 2 non-conference games and three times at home, not good signs for bowl teams, and went 0-5 vs. winning teams, too.
UAB's season (6-6) • SOS: #99
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2
- Alabama A&M 59-0
- @Liberty 14-21
- Georgia Southern 35-21
- @Rice 24-28
- Middle Tennessee St 41-14
- UNC-Charlotte 34-20
- @Western Kentucky 17-20
- @Florida Atlantic 17-24
- #24 UTSA 38-44 2OT
- North Texas 41-21
- @#17 LSU 10-41
- @Louisiana Tech 37-27
UAB's regular season fell short of last year's 8-4 finish, and most of their best games were early on as they ended 2-4 in the 2nd half of the season. They also have 2 non-conference losses. But the Blazers are almost .500 vs. the bowl field, and nearly beat #24 UTSA before falling in two overtimes. They won 2 of 3 at the end and you can't really count the loss to LSU.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Nothing significant at this point.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: UAB is a solid favorite, almost too solid for the bowl season...
- Location: No advantage, though the Bahamas location could lead to distractions; no advantage
- Coaching: UAB named new coach Trent Dilfer to replace interim Bryan Vincent, who will coach the bowl game, contrary to what we heard previously.
- Motivation: UAB might be unmotivated after less-successful season
- Momentum: Both finished fairly well in their last few games
Psychology is the key to this game, and there's not much to go by. Miami is in the same situation as last year, while UAB is down a few wins to barely making a bowl at 6-6. But that probably pales compared to hiring a brand new coach, Trent Dilfer, to replace interim coach Bryan Vincent. Will this cause excitement and enthusiasm, or will players be angry that Vincent wasn't the choice? Apparently they wrote letters to the President to consider him and were ignored. So do they "win one for coach" now? Or is the whole thing a big distraction?
Final analysis
Miami played uniformly poor this season, while UAB had poor games with occasional spikes of quality. Those spikes tended to happen earlier in the season, so whether or not they have a strong showing depends on their motivation. Their path to victory is clear: they have a great advantage running the ball on offense, while Miami has no offense to speak of. But again, motivation trumps everything and UAB needs a reason to win.
This is obviously a lousy bowl game or it wouldn't be the first of the season and wouldn't have two 6-6 teams. But it's in the Bahamas so maybe UAB will see it as a good thing rather than a consolation prize for a .500 year. Sometime in bowl games underdogs suddenly thrive and do uncharacteristic things—like Miami suddenly finding and offense and scoring 45 points when their high for the year is 31. On paper this looks like an easy UAB win but the team might be angry about the coaching change situation and have a sluggish effort. Although Vincent is coaching the bowl game it can't be easy with the distraction of Dilfer moving into his office. We're going to pick a suprise underdog win here.
Prediction: Miami Ohio 35, UAB 32
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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