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Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX
When: Thursday, December 22 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Air Force Falcons (9-3) vs. Baylor Bears (6-6)
Air Force really should be the "home" team in the Armed Forces Bowl but it's Baylor playing pretty close to home.
Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 3 1/2 (over/under 43)
The Bears were about a touchdown favorite to win but the line moved from 6 1/2 to 3 1/2. It's expected to be a lower-scoring game, the o/u dropping from 49.5 to 48.5 before plunging to 43.
Strength power rating: #19 Baylor 31, #61 Air Force 17
Best/Worst removed: Baylor 31-17
Turnover corrected: Baylor 32-17
Our power rating has the Bears favorited by a lot more than Vegas, two touchdowns instead of one. This is with partial home field advantage added for Baylor playing in-state and much closer than Air Force.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6.5 Spread |
| Baylor | 78% | 68% |
| Air Force | 22% | 32% |
As can be gleaned from our score projection Baylor wins most of the comparisons straight up and more than 2/3 against the initial 6.5 point spread.
When Air Force has the ball
| Air Force scoring offense(adj): #93 |
Baylor scoring defense(adj): #34 |
| Air Force rushing offense(raw): #1 |
Baylor rushing defense(raw): #45 |
| Air Force passing offense(raw): #131 | Baylor passing defense(raw): #80 |
Air Force's offense doesn't look like a good match for Baylor's defense at first blush, with the properly-adjusted figures showing the #93 offense against the #34 defense. The rest of the numbers here are unadjusted for opponents, which is a BIG deal since Air Force plays the #130 schedule in the nation while Baylor's SOS is #16.
But you get the idea from Air Force's raw numbers. #1 in rushing and dead last in passing yards, so what do you think they're going to do in the bowl game? The question is how good is Baylor's rushing defense, and we can confidently say it's a lot better than the raw value of #45 would suggest. The key is really how well they've prepared for the triple option, which is a whole thing of its own, but with almost a month to work on it they should be pretty decent at least. Brad Robert leads the Falcons with 1,612 yards and two others combine for over 1,300 yards. That's over 3,000 yards on the ground from three players, and the Falcons are close to 4,000 overall.
When Baylor has the ball
| Baylor scoring offense(adj): #25 |
Air Force scoring defense(adj): #31 |
| Baylor rushing offense(raw): #33 |
Air Force rushing defense(raw): #9 |
| Baylor passing offense(raw): #61 | Air Force passing defense(raw): #2 |
Things are pretty even here, as the adjusted scoring offense and defense ranking tell us. When you look at Air Force's rushing and passing defense, that's when you see how raw figures skew the truth. Air Force does not have the best defense in the country, which is what you'd gather if they really had the #2 rush defense and #9 pass defense. Against the #130 schedule, those kind of things are possible. For comparison, their #2 pass defense ranks #33 in pass efficiency defense, a more insightful metric than raw yardage.
But Air Force's adjusted scoring defense rank of #31 shows their D is capable of matching up against Baylor's #25 offense. The best offense they've played is #62 Boise State, so this game is going to test them in a big way. The Bears have the first offense that is worthy of their defense!
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Air Force: #106 Baylor: #119
Neither team has good special teams so they ought to cancel each other out. But it also means the game might get sloppy between the drives. Baylor's special teams coordinator was fired after the close of the season.
Air Force's season (9-3) • SOS: #130
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- Northern Iowa 48-17
- Colorado 41-10
- @Wyoming 14-17
- Nevada 48-20
- Navy 13-10
- @Utah St 27-34
- @UNLV 42-7
- Boise St 14-19
- =Army 13-7
- New Mexico 35-3
- Colorado St 24-12
- @San Diego St 13-3
Air Force played just about the weakest schedule in the country, with just four bowl teams. At least Northern Iowa is a good FCS team and they handled them well in the opener as well as Colorado which gave them a Power Five win. They were edged by Wyoming on the road and later Utah State, while Boise handed the Falcons their only home loss. They won four straight at the end and in their final game got their only win over a bowl team.
Baylor's season (6-6) • SOS: #16
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-6
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-3
- Albany NY 69-10
- @BYU 20-26 2OT
- Texas State 42-7
- @Iowa St 31-24
- Oklahoma St 25-36
- @West Virginia 40-43
- Kansas 35-23
- @Texas Tech 45-17
- @Oklahoma 38-35
- #9 Kansas St 3-31
- #3 TCU 28-29
- @#20 Texas 27-38
The Bears crushed Albany in the opener but fell to BYU in double overtime. Being in the Big Twelve means playing 8 bowl teams in-conference and Baylor went 3-5 among those, with their best win the 45-17 crushing of Texas Tech on the road. They dropped three straight at the end but all three of those teams ended up in the final Committee Top 25. The last two losses in particular were strong efforts worthy of a top 25, they just fell short against TCU (29-28) and at Texas (38-27).
Baylor did suffer three home losses, the worst being 31-3 to Kansas State.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Baylor starting safety Devin Neal entered the transfer portal, and #2 receiver Gavin Holmes is questionable. Backup QB Kyron Drones has entered the portal as well.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Baylor is the favorite, which is to be expected as a Power Five team; they aren't favored by so much that they might feel overconfident though. And playing a triple option team is always a challenge that has to be prepared for.
- Location: Baylor will be playing in-state, so that's a consideration; Air Force is 10 hours away and a different time zone. However, they're playing on TCU's home field and the local crowd will probably root against them.
- Coaching: No change at head coach for either school. Baylor coach Dave Aranda did fire the team's defensive coordinator and special teams coach.
- Motivation: Air Force won 9 games last year, too, and played in a Texas bowl then, too. Baylor is playing in Texas which is good but this probably isn't the bowl they hoped for when they were 6-3, and it's nothing like the season they had last year as 11-2 Big Twelve champions headed to the Sugar Bowl.
- Momentum: Air Force won 4 straight at the end of the year while Baylor lost three straight. But is momentum even real? This is a good test case.
An obvious potential motivation issue for Baylor, and they need to take this game seriously to win it. On offense they'll be facing a pretty good defense they can't afford to underestimate, and on defense they need to prepare for Air Force's "flexbone" triple option.
Final analysis
Baylor picked either the right time or the completely wrong time to switch defensive coordinators, as they'll be preparing for a very different kind of opponent in Air Force. Also probably a good time as any to lose a starting safety, as they won't be covering receivers very much. The challenge for the Bears is preparing for Air Force and the triple option. The offense and defense rankings indicate that Baylor has the talent to reign in the Falcon offense if they prepare seriously, but the issue of motivation lurks behind that statement.
Two things could cause lack of motivation: players comparing this year to last year, and being deflated after Baylor's three-game skid. The latter is probably the lesser issue as they played very well in the last two games and there's no sign the team quit. But losing those games put the team in a lackluster situation compared to the previous season when the Bears won the Big Twelve and went to a New Year's Six bowl game.
Now, their only consolation is playing close to home, but they're playing at TCU's home stadium, which means some local fans that will root for Air Force, and unless Baylor fans show up the "in-state partial home field advantage" goes away.
Baylor has faced the #13, #17, #25 and #26 rushing teams and gave up an average of 33.25 points in those games; those were Baylor's last four opponents. Those programs are probably roughly like Air Force's #1 rushing when the numbers are adjusted for schedule. If Baylor gives up 30 points or more it's a toss-up game. The new DC will have to prep immediately for the option, and while the Bears might do a good job there, for a less-than-motivated team it's a big challenge.
The trouble for Air Force, though, is their schedule. They haven't played a team ranked higher than #62, and Baylor is the #19 team. The best defense they faced is #36 Navy, while Baylor is #34. They managed 13 points against Navy. This bowl will be a good test of motivation vs. team strength, and for picking up option defense in a hurry. We have Baylor overcoming the motivation issues and talent winning out over a team that hasn't been tested much.
Prediction: Baylor 31, Air Force 13
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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