View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
Arizona Bowl in Tucson, AZ
When: Friday, December 30 at 4:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Ohio Bobcats (9-4) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (7-5)
According to the oddsmakers this game is just about as even as it gets.
Vegas line/spread: Ohio by 2 1/2 (over/under 41.5)
This one's a rare pick'em. Gotta love not caring about the spread and just see who wins! Apparently the line started at -3 Ohio and quickly moved toward Wyoming...why? It's also very low-scoring at 43 over/under. Some books list Ohio as a 1 point favorite, some have Wyoming -0.5 even. On game day Ohio was a 2 1/2 point favorite, however. Post-game: Before kickoff Ohio was back to the original 3 point favorite.
Update: A favorite has been chosen, and pretty clearly. A day before game day and Ohio is now a fairly solid favorite, and the o/u is down about 1.5 points.
Strength power rating: #86 Ohio 30, #120 Wyoming 23
Best/Worst removed: Ohio 30-22
Turnover corrected: Ohio 28-25
The betting public is torn but the Strength power rating picks a clear winner and it's Ohio by a touchdown. That expands to 8 points when we trim the high and low ratings, and falls to three points when we adjust for turnovers. This result is important because it's often the basis for oddsmakers spreads, and that's where things opened before quickly moving toward zero. Not sure where they're getting the low over/under though.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2.5 Spread |
| Ohio | 71% | 61.5% |
| Wyoming | 29% | 38.5% |
Since the spread started at zero, there's of course no difference between win% and covering the spread %. It's pretty certain the line will move one way or another before kickoff. Update: We've changed this to reflect the recent spread, since a spread of 0 doesn't give any new info!
When Ohio has the ball
| Ohio scoring offense(adj): #63 |
Wyoming scoring defense(adj): #79 |
| Ohio rushing offense(raw): #84 |
Wyoming rushing defense(raw): #65 |
| Ohio passing offense(raw): #18 | Wyoming passing defense(raw): #62 |
Ohio has a decent offense, and Wyoming's defense isn't terrible. The raw numbers are probably usable since the team's SOS are about the same. Regardless, Ohio like to pass the ball. Kurtis Rourke had 3,256 yards and a 25:4 ratio, but he's been out since mid-November, leaving CJ Harris (393, 1:1) in charge. Four receivers have over 500 yards led by Sam Wiglusz with 850 (11 TDs).
When Wyoming has the ball
| Wyoming scoring offense(adj): #113 |
Ohio scoring defense(adj): #93 |
| Wyoming rushing offense(raw): #37 |
Ohio rushing defense(raw): #56 |
| Wyoming passing offense(raw): #125 | Ohio passing defense(raw): #130 |
Wyoming's horrible offense squares off against Ohio's not-much-better defense. The passing numbers are the worst—Wyoming can't throw the ball but Ohio can't defend it, something has to give. Wyoming wants to run the ball, which is Ohio's (relative) strength on defense. But nothing is easy these days—leading rusher Titus Swen (1,039 yards) has hit the transfer portal. The next two RBs have good averages but there's obviously a reason Swen had twice as many attempts as both of them combined.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Ohio: #48 Wyoming: #11
Wyoming needs an edge and special teams might give it, though Ohio isn't terrible here.
Ohio's season (9-4) • SOS: #89
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1
- Florida Atlantic 41-38
- @#11 Penn State 10-46
- @Iowa St 10-43
- Fordham 59-52
- @Kent St 24-31 OT
- Akron 55-34
- @Western Michigan 33-14
- Northern Illinois 24-17
- Buffalo 45-24
- @Miami OH 37-21
- @Ball St 32-18
- Bowling Green 38-14
- =Toledo 7-17
Ohio got off to a rough start; that'll happen when you schedule Penn State and Iowa State (the best 5-7 team) back to back. Not that Ohio was much more impressive in its wins over Florida Atlantic and Fordham. But after starting 2-3 the Bobcats started winning and didn't look back, winning 7 straight games and getting to the MAC championship game where they laid an egg like it was the early season again. Note that they didn't lose any games at home: three on the road, and one on neutral territory.
With Kurtis Rourke out from an ACL injury after the Ball State game, CJ Harris (393 yards, 1:1) took over and led the Bobcats to a solid win and a bad loss. Harris can run but his accuracy (50%) is dismal thus far.
Wyoming's season (7-5) • SOS: #95
Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0
- @Illinois 6-38
- Tulsa 40-37 2OT
- Northern Colorado 33-10
- Air Force 17-14
- @Brigham Young 24-38
- San Jose St 16-33
- @New Mexico 27-14
- Utah St 28-14
- @Hawai`i 27-20
- @Colorado St 14-13
- Boise St 17-20
- @Fresno St 0-30
Wyoming lost its opener to Illinois but won three straight after that including a win over 9-3 Air Force. They couldn't handle BYU or San Jose State but three of their next four foes were 3-9 or worse. They played well against Boise State, losing just 20-17, but didn't show up against Fresno, a 30-0 loss.
It's hard to point to a game and say "that's a performance that would win a bowl game" but then again, sometimes inexplicably a team comes up with its first flash of greatness in bowl season. The dismal season ender wouldn't suggest it, though.
Key Injuries / opt-outs / transfer portal
Wyoming's Titus Swen (1,039 rushing yards) is in the portal.
Ohio's QB Kurtis Rourke was hurt a few games ago; it was an ACL tear and he was declared out for the season.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Neither is favored, though Ohio is listed in many places as the 1 point favorite. Update: Ohio is back to being the favorite.
- Location: Tucson is pretty far from Athens, Ohio: well over 24 hours if you drive. But it's not that close to Laramie, Wyoming, either; that's a 15 hour drive, or about half as far. It is in the same time zone, while Athens is two time zones away. This is mostly tiebreaker type of info—something that could be a factor in a very close game, like this one!
- Coaching: No changes.
- Motivation: Wyoming was 6-6 last year at this time, so they showed some improvement. Ohio was just 3-9 so they flipped that over (not counting the last game) to 9-3.
- Momentum: Both teams kinda killed their momentum with a bad game at the end. But Ohio is the only team that had any real momentum during the season. They were playing a lot better for a lot longer than Wyoming, then Kurtis Rourke's injury threw a wrench in their plans.
No one's talking about Ohio flipping their season from 3-9 to 9-4. That's gotta be on their minds, plus the idea of having at 10-win season if they can win the bowl game? That's pretty motivating. And Wyoming might be somewhat motivated too but their best player just bailed on them.
Final analysis
It's interesting that the line started at the turnover-corrected Strength power rating spread of Ohio -3, then for some reason the public quickly knocked it down to Ohio -1 or to even. Strange, too, when it's Wyoming that's missing a key player. What does the wisdom of the crowds know that we don't? And why is the over/under so much lower? We're showing 53 points and it's at 43, you'd think the forecast was for a windstorm on that exact day. It can't be Ohio's loss of Kurtis Rourke since that happened in mid-November and everyone betting on the game had to know he wasn't playing.
Some people chart line moves and pick their winners based on that and, if that works for you, more power to you. I'm trying to analyze a game, not watch betting lines. The game analysis drives the betting moves anyway, and that's the more interesting side for me. But dammit I hate hidden information!
Both teams laid an egg in their final game, but Wyoming's was ostrich-sized. And how can we believe they're motivated when their star player is in the transfer portal? Ohio seems like they should have all the motivation in the world after last year's 3-9 season. The team didn't do very well in two games under CJ Harris but they were still a lot better than Wyoming.
So if you want to track spreads and conclude Wyoming should win because that's the direction the line is moving, it's probably valid a greater than 50% chance [update: and now that same method would make you pick Ohio i guess]. In this case though I see no compelling reason that the line is moving in the first place, so unless there's a rumor, it's just that people like Wyoming to win. And I don't see it. They look plainly worse than Ohio, less motivated, star player bolting, had an atrocious final game, never played well during the entire season...I think that sums it up. These are the kind of teams that make you pull your hair out if they win.
But that usually happens when they have a motivational edge. And as far as I can tell, that's in Ohio's direction. We'll use the low over/under as our guide, maybe they're onto something! Post-mortem: Though technically we beat the first spread (pick 'em) and the last spread (Ohio -2.5) that I saw, the line did finish at Ohio -3 before kickoff and that's how it will go down in the books so we'll count it as a push. If I'd bet on this game at any time I would have won, but I want to get a representative tally vs. the final spread and this is the only way to do it.
Prediction: Ohio 27, Wyoming 16
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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