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Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX
When: Thursday, December 29 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#12 Washington Huskies (10-2) vs. #20 Texas Longhorns (8-4)
This is it, our first review of a bowl with two ranked teams. Enjoy!
Vegas line/spread: Texas by 3 (over/under 67.5)
Despite their lower committee rank Texas is a pretty solid favorite, though the line has dropped from 6 1/2 to just 3 points. The over/under is down from 68.5.
Strength power rating: #6 Texas 40, #21 Washington 26
Best/Worst removed: Texas 40-27
Turnover corrected: Texas 41-26
Unlike the Texas Bowl where Dallas is a neutral ground between Texas Tech and Ole Miss, in this case San Antonio is very close to Austin and very far from Seattle so we give partial home field to the Longhorns. We end up with Texas being a huge favorite, much bigger than the Vegas spread as the Longhorns rank in the top ten in Strength.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6 Spread |
| Texas | 78% | 62.5% |
| Washington | 22% | 37.5% |
Texas wins outright almost 4 of 5 times and covers more than 3 in 5 in our game-comparison system vs. the early 6 point spread.
When Washington has the ball
| Washington scoring offense(adj): #8 |
Texas scoring defense(adj): #8 |
| Washington rushing offense(raw): #71 |
Texas rushing defense(raw): #29 |
| Washington passing offense(raw): #1 | Texas passing defense(raw): #88 |
It's a great matchup when Washington has the ball—a top ten offense vs. a top ten defense. Both at #8 to be exact, in adjusted scoring defense. The other numbers for rushing and passing are raw numbers and less valuable, but it's certainly worth noting that Washington is the #1 passing team in the nation by raw yardage, and that Texas is only #88 in raw pass defense. But the Longhorns face a lot of pass-happy teams; in yards per attempt they're #23, and pass defense efficiency they're #42. The Huskies passing attack will be a challenge for them but Texas is much better than their raw yardage figures would suggest. Former Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr has thrown for 4,354 yards and 29 TDs vs. just 7 interceptions, and both Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan have topped 1,000 yards already.
Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown (#2 w/95 tackles) has opted out of the bowl game.
When Texas has the ball
| Texas scoring offense(adj): #10 |
Washington scoring defense(adj): #62 |
| Texas rushing offense(raw): #26 |
Washington rushing defense(raw): #33 |
| Texas passing offense(raw): #63 | Washington passing defense(raw): #90 |
Texas has an offense equal to Washington's and Washington's defense isn't close to being as good as the Longhorn D. That's the basis of the argument in favor of Texas, and it's a good one. The elements of the Texas offense—rushing and passing—don't add up to a top ten scoring defense, mostly because they are raw numbers unadjusted for Texas #4 SOS. But there are other elements, such as Texas having great special teams, that allow them to turn fewer yards into more points. They're 25th in red zone conversions, too. Basically the matchups here with Washington are skewed toward the Huskies favor since they played the #53 SOS. Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TDs) is the Longhorns main weapon, but he has opted out so the Longhorns will have to look elsewhere (and their #2 rusher is opting out as well).
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Washington: #101 Texas: #6
If ever special teams ranking should be noted it's in this case, where Texas is in the top ten and Washington in triple digits. Worth at least a point, right?
Washington's season (10-2) • SOS: #63
Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-1
- Kent St 45-20
- Portland St 52-6
- Michigan St 39-28
- Stanford 40-22
- @#18 UCLA 32-40
- @Arizona St 38-45
- Arizona 49-39
- @California 28-21
- #14 Oregon St 24-21
- @#15 Oregon 37-34
- Colorado 54-7
- @Washington St 51-33
If there's any doubt the Playoff Committee pretty much just ranks by number of losses (which is ok), see Washington. In the past they've said a remarkable amount about Strength of Schedule but Washington managed to play 7 losing (or FCS) teams out of 12 games on a 9-game Power Five slate. They did end up beating two top 25 teams back to back but their first four games are pretty weak competition, and all at home. Once the Huskies ventures on the road they lost twice in a row.
But then their chart does something amazing. Every week they got a little better. It seemed that way in "real life" but a lot of teams seem that way and it doesn't show up so nicely on their chart. Six weeks in a row, like stair steps. Sure it's probably a fluke, and six wins in a row will in some cases end up this way randomly...but there might be something to it. It might mean they're set to play at or near the top of their range instead of the average point. Also note the lack of non-conference losses, nor home losses. That's going to be more common with 2-loss teams of course, but it's good nonetheless.
Texas's season (8-4) • SOS: #4
Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-2
- Louisiana-Monroe 52-10
- #5 Alabama 19-20
- #25 UTSA 41-20
- @Texas Tech 34-37 OT
- West Virginia 38-20
- =Oklahoma 49-0
- Iowa St 24-21
- @Oklahoma St 34-41
- @#9 Kansas St 34-27
- #3 TCU 10-17
- @Kansas 55-14
- Baylor 38-27
Texas came very close to being undefeated, about as close as a 4-loss team can get, and played two of the best games that any team played all season in the college football world.
First the losses: to #5 Alabama by 1 point; at Texas Tech in overtime; at Oklahoma State by a touchdown; and at home to #3 TCU by a touchdown. They probably should have gotten two of those (though to be fair, Iowa State and Kansas State wins were close too).
The big wins: the Longhorns beat Oklahoma 49-0 on a neutral field, which rates as the biggest win of any team all season, even ahead of Georgia 49-3 over Oregon. The 55-14 win at Kansas was "off the charts" too.
What does this mean? That Texas is arguably the best team in the country when they play at their peak. But they rarely make it there, and have a lot of variation in how well they play. They've never lost by a lot or played a terrible game, but they don't show consistent dominance. You also have to factor in the 4th toughest schedule in the country.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
Texas backup QB Hudson Card (928 yards, 6:1) has entered the transfer portal, as have a few backup defensive players and a backup offensive lineman. More important are the opt-outs: LB DeMarvion Overshown (#2 w/95 tackles) and #1 rusher Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TDs) as well as #2 rusher Roschon Johnson (554 yds).
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Texas being a favorite might surprise some, and might piss Washington off as the higher-ranked team. It insures they won't take the Longhorns lightly, though that was very unlikely to begin with.
- Location: Texas is playing about an hour from home and should have a lot more fans, pretty close to a home environment but not quite.
- Coaching: No change.
- Motivation: Washington certainly likes how this year turned out after last year's 4-8 effort, and the pandemic-shortened 3-1 season in 2020. Texas probably has mixed feelings about all the close losses but last year they were 5-7 and didn't go bowling, so they really aren't in much of a different situation than Washington.
- Momentum: Texas can't be said to have much momentum, since every time they got going they'd drop a close game. They finished with two good wins thought. Washington has the most momentum I've seen since Auburn in 2010, getting better seemingly every week on their chart. Will it follow through?
Most people talking about this game are noting Washington's turnaround from 4-8 to 10-2, but Texas did a similar jump from 5-7 to 8-4, given how close they were to beating teams like Alabama and TCU. The main thing is both teams got back to a bowl game and are playing a quality opponent, so I don't see any downside for Texas. Both teams should be pumped for this game.
But Washington does have a lot more of that elusive "momentum" which sometimes delivers, sometimes not. Finding the inflection point is the hardest thing when predicting anything: when does the trend continue and when does it reverse?
Final analysis
If the Texas that beat Oklahoma 49-0 and Kansas 55-14 shows up, the Huskies have no hope. Texas wins in a rout. But that team only showed up in 17% of the Longhorns' games.
Meanwhile if Washington's rating keeps climbing the stairstep they've made over the last 7 weeks then they'll beat any team Texas fields (that isn't related to those two games mentioned).
In 2010 Auburn kept climbing and climbing a stairstep, seen to the left. The first graph is before the national title game with Oregon, and I was trying to figure out if it was for real. Could they really keep getting better each week? The final game was clearly an outlier, but would the series pick up where it left off? In other words, do I just use their average game or will it be closer to the top of the stairs?
As it turned out, I used the average and predicted an Oregon win; instead, they played near the top of the range—just up from the main "steps" and beat the Ducks. Same of the "steps" flattened after the bowl season but the Tigers kept the stairs going up somehow. And Washington's steps are even more pronounced. This is basically to call the game: if Washington doesn't play at the top of the stairs, they lose; if they do, they win. And almost everything else points to Texas or is a draw.
Meanwhile while doing all this thinking, a key offensive and defensive player have joined the crowd of Texas players opting out or transferring, while nothing of the sort is happening for Washington. Let's give this one to the Huskies.
Prediction: Washington 30, Texas 23
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
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