Here it is, the penultimate week of college football action before the final Playoff standings are determined. Every game counts more now because there's little time to recover from a loss that drops you in the Committee standings, which this year is working more and more like the AP poll: lose and you get moved down, win and you fill in the open spots in front of you. The alleged "evaluation" the Committee supposedly does is limited to griping about USC's defense when they beat a top 25 team, while not worrying about LSU's offense when they beat a team like Arkansas 13-10. But I digress.
Georgia, #1 both in our projection and the Committee's current ranking, had better win out otherwise things get ugly. But for now we're safe as they're playing Georgia Tech, a team that did beat North Carolina last week. The rest of the Playoff-bound teams have it a lot tougher. #2 (2) Ohio State hosts #6 (3) Michigan basically in a playoff for a Playoff spot, loser is (under most circumstances) out of the running, winner goes on to probably rematch Iowa. #3 (4) TCU has a tougher game vs. Iowa State than the line would indicate, but that's always the case for TCU. #4 (6) USC has the toughest of our projected field, hosting a hot Notre Dame team. And #5 (8) Clemson hosts South Carolina, a team that destroyed Tennessee but for which the Tigers will get little credit for beating but tons of grief if they lose.
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings w/Committee rank, oddsmakers' line and next opponent:
Rnk Team Comm Rec Proj Line Opponent 1. Georgia 1 11-0 13-0 -35.5 Georgia Tech 2. Ohio State 2 11-0 13-0 -7.5 #6 Michigan 3. TCU 4 11-0 13-0 -10.0 Iowa State 4. USC 6 10-1 12-1 -5.5 #19 Notre Dame 5. Clemson 8 10-1 12-1 -14.5 South Carolina 6. Michigan 3 11-0 11-1 +7.5 @ #2 Ohio State 7. Alabama 7 9-2 10-2 -22.0 Auburn 8. Tennessee 10 9-2 10-2 -14.0 @ Vanderbilt 9. LSU 5 9-2 10-3 -10.0 @ Texas A&M 10. Penn State 11 9-2 10-2 -19.0 Michigan State 11. Oregon 9 9-2 9-4 -3.0 @ #17 Oregon State 12. Washington 13 9-2 9-3 -2.0 @ Washington State 13. Florida St 16 8-3 9-3 -9.5 Florida 14. Utah 14 8-3 9-3 -29.5 @ Colorado 15. UCLA 18 8-3 9-3 -10.0 @ California 16. UNC 17 9-2 10-3 -6.5 NC State 17. Oregon St 21 8-3 9-3 +3.0 #11 Oregon 18. Mississippi 20 8-3 9-3 -1.5 Miss. State 19. Notre Dame 15 8-3 8-4 +5.5 @USC 20. Tulane 19 9-2 11-2 +1.0 @ (24)Cincinnati 21. Kansas St 12 8-3 9-4 -11.5 Kansas 22. Texas 23 7-4 8-4 -8.5 Baylor 23. Louisville 25 7-4 8-4 +3.0 @ Kentucky 24. UTSA -- 9-2 11-2 -17.0 UTEP 25. Troy -- 9-2 11-2 -14.0 @ Arkansas St -- UCF 22 8-3 9-4 -19.5 USF -- Cincinnati 24 9-2 9-3 -1.0 #20 Tulane
It's pretty clear that #7 Alabama has no hope under normal circumstances, but what about #9 (5) LSU? The Committee has fallen in love with this 2-loss team for some reason, maybe to get us used to the idea of 2-loss and 3-loss teams in the Playoff when it expands? Either way, the Tigers are given such ridiculous outsized credit for beating Alabama in overtime and a quickly-self-destructing Mississippi team, while also having a 27-point loss to Tennessee, that they're in position to take a Playoff spot from a Power Five conference champ whose only loss is by 1 point on the road.
ESPN vs. 538 if LSU beats Georgia
We're pretty sure LSU loses to Georgia which is why they're so low. But what if they win? ESPN and 538 both have prediction machines and boy, do they compute the reaction of the Committee differently. Here's what happens in ESPN/AllState and 538 if all the higher-rated teams win out but LSU upsets Georgia:
Team ESPN 538 Average Georgia 84% 25% 54.5% Ohio State >99% >99% >99% Michigan 43% <1% 22% TCU 85% >99% 92% LSU 41% 86% 63.5% USC 26% 62% 44% Alabama 3% 1% 2% Clemson 19% 26% 22.5% Tennessee <1% <1% <1%
According to ESPN Georgia is still solidly in, along with either Michigan or LSU. 538 has Georgia out, Michigan completely out, LSU solidly in along with USC. Both have Ohio State and TCU in. This is crazy, and tells us how little we know about the Committee and what it will do in a given scenario.
ESPN's final order in this scenario is: Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Michigan, LSU, USC, Clemson, Alabama.
538's final order is: Ohio State, TCU, LSU, USC, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Michigan
The "composite" order is Ohio State, TCU, LSU, Georgia, USC, Clemson, Michigan, Alabama
So basically only Clemson has no chance if LSU beats Georgia, while USC has a decent chance and the Michigan-Ohio State loser might sneak in.
American Athletic Still Wide Open
The lower part of the top 25 is meaningless now for the Playoff but will determine a New Year's Six participant once the AAC figures out who their champ is. We have Tulane beating Cincy and winning the rematch with UCF for the title, a scenario that will put them much higher than the #20 we project them at now—especially since they're already #19 in the Committee's top 25.
The Committee still has 8-3 UCF and 9-2 Cincinnati ranked, but if our scenario holds both will have another loss and drop out. We see them eventually getting replaced by 11-2 UTSA and Troy, but that's contingent on both winning their conference title games. The Committee may or may not agree and instead dredge up another couple of 8-4 teams for the final spots.
Speaking of 8-4 teams, a couple of those that we've projected for the Final Top 25 for a few weeks, Texas and Louisville, made their way back in to the Committee's Top 25 last Tuesday. Both have to win to match our 8-4 projection and stay in; Louisville has the tougher task as they are underdogs at Kentucky.
Pac-12 Shakeup Continues
There are no other underdogs on the board but we favor #17 Oregon State over #11 Oregon and Washington State over #12 Washington. Given how the Pac-12 has played out this year it would make sense if this happens, Team A tends to beat Team B who beats Team C who beat Team A in the first place. In the Pac-12 there are much longer chains.
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