The College Football Playoff Committee is made up of experts who take their job seriously and truly investigate the quality of the teams they are charged with ranking. They don't just put the teams in any typical order like the AP Sportswriters, nor do they just move them around based on what happened last week. They reevaluate and rerank from scratch with a solid case behind each position in their top 25.
At least, that's what we've been sold for the last 8 years or so. But the truth is, they're not really any better than the AP. We knew that from the first iteration of the Playoff, when #3 TCU beat Iowa State 55-3 and fell to #6 in the final rankings because A) Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0, B) undefeated FSU couldn't fall out, and C) while we're at it, we're going to recognize Baylor's conference championship all of a sudden and put them #5. That was a whole lot of re-evaluation, but then why were the ratings so screwed up the week before?
TCU was getting the shaft again last week at #7, but suddenly they've bumped up to #4. This week it's Clemson getting the shaft, falling from #4 to #10. These are the typical week-to-week movements the AP sportswriters make, reacting to last week's games, that the Committee was supposed to be immune from. But look at the Committee's first rankings—they're almost a carbon copy of the AP top 25. And the 2nd week? They follow the AP's lead almost exactly again. If the Committee really has any independent thinking, they're not showing much of it. It matters because the "order" of losses shouldn't be as important as it is in the "week by week adjustment" model—losing late is devastating, as there's no time to "work your way back up" as other teams lose.
TCU, slated to finish 10-3 by our rankings is a dismal #14 but beating #13 Texas would be the kickstart they need in our projection, as it would erase one loss and kick Texas out of the title game, probably putting TCU at 12-1. Texas is a 7-point favorite, one reason why the Horned Frogs don't get their due here.
This weekend features (our) #2 Ohio State as a 40-point favorite, #6 Michigan at around 30 points, #7 USC at 34 points, and #3 Tennessee, #10 UCLA, and #22 NC State all at around 20 points. #1 Georgia is closer at 16 1/2. The top game expected to be competitive is #4 Clemson (Committee #10) at #20 Louisville (comm: unranked). #9 Mississippi has their big chance against #8 Alabama but they're still out of luck unless #11 LSU loses at Arkansas—though the Tigers are just a 3 point favorite.
Projected Final Standings of CFP Committee: with Committee rank, Line, and opponent
Rnk Team Comm Rec Proj Line Opponent 1. Georgia 1 9-0 13-0 -16.5 @ Miss State 2. Ohio State 2 9-0 13-0 -40.0 Indiana 3. Tennessee 5 8-1 11-1 -20.5 Missouri 4. Clemson 10 8-1 12-1 -7.0 #20 Louisville 5. Oregon 6 8-1 12-1 -13.5 (25) Washington 6. Michigan 3 9-0 11-1 -29.5 Nebraska 7. USC 8 8-1 11-2 -34.0 Colorado 8. Alabama 9 7-2 10-2 -12.0 @ #9 Mississippi 9. Mississippi 11 8-1 10-2 +12.0 #8 Alabama 10. UCLA 12 8-1 10-2 -19.5 Arizona 11. LSU 7 7-2 10-3 -3.0 @ Arkansas 12. Penn State 14 7-2 10-2 -10.0 Maryland 13. Texas 18 6-3 10-3 -7.0 #14 TCU 14. TCU 4 9-0 10-3 +7.0 @ #13 Texas 15. Utah 13 7-2 9-3 -24.0 Stanford 16. UNC 15 8-1 10-3 +3.5 @ #23 Wake Forest 17. Florida St 23 6-3 9-3 -6.5 @ Syracuse 18. Notre Dame 20 6-3 8-4 -16.5 @ Navy 19. Illinois 21 7-2 9-4 -6.5 Purdue 20. Louisville -- 6-3 8-4 +7.0 @ #4 Clemson 21. UCF 22 7-2 11-2 +2.0 @ (17) Tulane 22. NC State 16 7-2 8-4 -19.0 Boston College 23. Wake Forest -- 6-3 8-4 -3.5 #16 UNC 24. Liberty -- 8-1 11-1 -14.5 UConn 25. UTSA -- 7-2 11-2 -18.0 North Texas others: -- Tulane 17 8-1 10-3 -2.0 #21 UCF -- Kansas St 19 6-3 8-4 +2.5 @Baylor -- Kentucky 24 6-3 7-5 -18.0 Vanderbilt -- Washington 25 7-2 8-4 +13.5 @ #5 Oregon
The only other intra-top 25 clash is #16 North Carolina at #23 Wake Forest. The Tar Heels actually have a reasonable path to the Playoff, as finishing a 1-loss ACC champ with a win over Clemson would get them at least in the top 10—but probably short of the Playoff given the possible number of 1-loss teams available. As we project, Clemson gets in at 12-1 but UNC probably would not—even if they have a closer loss to Notre Dame! Alas, the Tar Heels are a slight underdog and our 10-3 projection includes a loss here too.
Another underdog on our top 25 is #21 Central Florida at Tulane. We have UCF winning, but in previous weeks Tulane was ranked at 12-1 and can still accomplish that. The Committee has the Green Wave at #17, and if they win this one they'll be back in ours.
Two more teams in the Committee rankings are underdogs: (19) Kansas State at Baylor and (25) Washington at #5 Oregon.
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