North Central is currently our #1 team in Division III:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success 1. North Central 10-0 74.54 [ 1] 58.87 [ 1] 15.66 [ 7] 2. Mount Union 10-0 67.24 [ 2] 53.46 [ 2] 13.77 [ 10] 3. Ithaca 10-0 55.78 [ 3] 35.84 [ 11] 19.93 [ 1] 4. St John's MN 9-1 53.15 [ 4] 34.05 [ 17] 19.10 [ 3] 5. Linfield 9-0 52.27 [ 5] 35.00 [ 14] 17.26 [ 6] 6. Wartburg 10-0 52.22 [ 6] 36.78 [ 9] 15.43 [ 8] 7. John Carroll 8-2 49.28 [ 7] 44.91 [ 3] 4.37 [ 40] 8. Trinity TX 10-0 48.39 [ 8] 35.00 [ 15] 13.39 [ 11] 9. Mary Hardin-Baylor 9-1 48.08 [ 9] 40.34 [ 4] 7.73 [ 22] 10. UW-Whitewater 8-2 46.63 [ 10] 34.99 [ 16] 11.64 [ 13]
They are a pretty clear #1 in Strength, which offsets their #7 rating in Success, which suggests they have dominated but haven't played the toughest schedule among the top teams.
But what you don't see on that rating—a combo of Strength and Success—is how good their defense is. Here's a look at our Strength for Div III teams with Offense and Defense broken out:
# Team rec Str Offense Defense 1. North Central 10-0 58.87 58.72 [ 1] -0.14 [ 1] 2. Mount Union 10-0 53.46 54.97 [ 2] 1.51 [ 2] 3. John Carroll 8-2 44.91 48.61 [ 7] 3.69 [ 3] 4. Mary Hardin-Baylor 9-1 40.34 49.12 [ 6] 8.77 [ 16] 5. Emory & Henry 5-6 39.13 43.02 [ 22] 3.88 [ 4]
North Central is #1 on offense and defense, with a defense so good that it shows a negative number. This number represents the number of points an average Division III offense should score against the team. A result of 0 means the team should score a shutout against an opponent with an average offense. This result suggests the average D-III offense scores -0.14 points against the Cardinals.
How can that number be negative, and what does that really mean? Of course no football score can be negative, but when that number goes negative it suggests a degree of likelihood. In our All-Division power ratings, which spans 750+ teams, there is a much wider variation of teams and the top defenses might have a score of -20; this suggests a very high likelihood of shutting out an average team, whereas a -0.14 suggests a strong but not overwhelming chance.
In any case, a negative defensive score is pretty impressive. Let's look at how they got it:
@ Wabash 56-12 #24 @ Carthage 59- 7 #119 Elmhurst 76- 6 #199 Wheaton 33-20 #4 @ Carroll WI 73- 0 #77 Millikin 65- 0 #204 @ Washington MO 31- 0 #12 North Park 59- 0 #160 @ Illinois Wesleyan 68- 3 #73 Augustana IL 63- 3 #37
Above is their schedule and results, along with the offensive ranking of the teams they played. Note that the only teams that scored in double digits are Wheaton, who has the #4 offense, and Wabash, the #24 offense. Wheaton normally scores 50 points and Wabash 42, so these results already show a solid defense.
No other team scored more than 7 points, and the Cardinals registered four shutouts in a row including one against the #12 offense in D-III, Washington of Missouri, who averages 46 points against an average D. In their last six games, North Central has given up an average of 1 point!
Here's another way to look at their defense: its rank among all 768 D-I, D-II, D-III, and NAIA teams:
Raw Rank Team Div Rec Offense Defense 655 189. Florida Int'l FBS 4-6 34.88 [233] 14.43 [189] 376 190. North Carolina A&T FCS 7-3 38.58 [200] 14.67 [190] 457 191. Montana St FCS 9-1 55.02 [ 54] 14.78 [191] 398 192. Texas Southern FCS 5-5 36.86 [209] 15.00 [192] 1 193. North Central DIII 10-0 43.63 [155] 15.03 [193] 147 194. West Alabama DII 5-6 22.74 [423] 15.08 [194] 524 195. Tennessee-Martin FCS 6-4 47.72 [114] 15.37 [195] 94 196. Evangel NAIA 7-3 22.39 [431] 15.47 [196] 561 197. Eastern Kentucky FCS 6-4 46.90 [124] 15.49 [197] 478 198. Villanova FCS 5-5 36.88 [208] 15.73 [198] 431 199. Hampton FCS 4-6 31.82 [287] 15.81 [199] 50 200. Pittsburg St DII 11-0 32.51 [272] 15.85 [200] 536 201. Campbell FCS 4-6 45.82 [132] 15.97 [201] 461 202. East Tennessee St FCS 3-7 46.38 [129] 15.98 [202] 17 203. Bentley DII 7-3 22.77 [420] 16.11 [203] 52 204. Colorado Mines DII 9-2 45.69 [134] 16.17 [204] 140 205. Truman St DII 8-2 27.92 [343] 16.21 [205] 600 206. Hawai`i FBS 2-9 40.21 [188] 16.44 [206]
This section is from #189 to #206 among 768 teams. North Central's defense ranks #193, which is pretty good considering there are: 131 FCS teams, 131 FBS teams, and 167 ranked Div-II teams, for a total of 429 teams you would expect to have better defenses than a Div-III team.
The "Raw" rank of #1 means that North Central has given up fewer points than any team in the nation, period. Of course schedule matters, and when corrected for the teams they've faced they drop A LOT—to #193. That's still just a bit lower than FBS Florida International at #189, and better than Hawaii at #206. The other teams around them are generally FCS teams with a few good D-II teams in that area as well. Another outlier is NAIA's Evangel at #196, a ranking that's harder to explain without getting into the math but they do have three shutouts, and also held strong offenses Grand View and Benedictine KS 10-14 points below their averages.
The bottom line, North Central's defense better than the vast majority of D-II defenses. It's comparable to above-average FCS defenses, too. It ranks on par with the worst of FBS defenses, but you wouldn't expect a D-III team to be close to any FBS teams.
What's scary is their offense might be even better in a relative sense, as it ranks #155 overall. The Cardinals are #2 in the nation in total points scored. Their offense ranks just below 1-9 Colorado and ahead of Virginia and several other FBS teams. This comparison, however, I see as less reliable than a comparison of defenses across Divisions. There's only one way to have a good defensive rating, and that's to now allow scoring. To have a good offensive ranking, you can play very up-tempo and run up the score on hapless opponents.
In any case, North Central is our odds-on favorite to win the D-III playoff that starts Saturday, with Mount Union of course being their main expected obstacle.
Comments