Get ready to stay up a bit late on Saturday: the Pac-12 is the focus of the important games in this week's Playoff race. While the SEC has the very top teams—four in the current Committee top ten—they're taking the week off. #1 Georgia and (our projected) #3 Tennessee are 20+ point favorites over Kentucky and South Carolina. #8 Alabama is a 50 point favorite (our estimate) hosting Austin Peay. #11 LSU is a surprisingly low 2-touchdown favorite at home vs. UAB, so maybe pay attention to that one but by and large, the SEC is not where your focus should be.
Instead it's the late evening football that contains the contenders battling it out. #7 Utah hosts #21 Oregon with a Pac-12 title appearance probably on the line. The Committee has Oregon #12 which reflects their current 8-2 status, and if the Ducks want to avoid ending up at #21 they need a win. It would also keep them in Pac-12 title contention—and as we see it, probably propels USC in the Playoff: USC's schedule hasn't been that tough so far but getting wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, and Utah/Oregon puts them 12-1 with a Pac-12 title and a 1-point road loss to a ranked team. That's a Playoff résumé. We see the Trojans beating Oregon but losing to Utah, so they want the Ducks to win this game.
Currently USC, Oregon, and Utah have one conference loss so the loser here is behind the 8-ball if #9 USC beats #15 UCLA as expected. Of course if UCLA pulls off the upset, then it leaves four teams with 2 losses still vying for a title game appearance. #16 Washington would be in play at 8-2; the Huskies are huge favorites against Colorado. And then there's #20 Oregon State who is no longer in the conference race but makes for six Pac-12 teams in our projected Final Top 25 and the current Committee Top 25 too. Who says the conference isn't good this year?
Projected Final Standings of CFP Committee: with Committee rank, Line, and opponent
Rnk Team Comm Rec Proj Line Opponent
1. Georgia 1 10-0 13-0 -22.5 @Kentucky
2. Ohio State 2 10-0 13-0 -27.5 @Maryland
3. Tennessee 5 9-1 11-1 -21.5 @South Carolina
4. Clemson 9 9-1 12-1 -19.0 Miami FL
5. Michigan 3 10-0 11-1 -18.0 Illinois
6. TCU 4 10-0 12-1 -2.5 @Baylor
7. Utah 10 8-2 11-2 -2.0 @ #21 Oregon
8. Alabama 8 8-2 10-2 -50.0 Austin Peay
9. USC 7 9-1 11-2 -2.5 @ #15 UCLA
10. UNC 13 9-1 11-2 -21.0 Georgia Tech
11. LSU 6 8-2 10-3 -14.5 UAB
12. Penn State 11 8-2 10-2 -19.0 @Rutgers
13. Mississippi 14 8-2 10-2 -2.5 @Arkansas
14. Kansas St 15 7-3 10-3 -7.5 @WVA
15. UCLA 16 8-2 9-3 +2.5 #9 USC
16. Washington 17 8-2 9-3 -31.0 Colorado
17. Florida St 19 7-3 9-3 -24.0 ULL
18. Notre Dame 18 7-3 8-4 -21.0 Boston College
19. UCF 20 8-2 11-2 -16.5 Navy
20. Oregon St 23 7-3 9-3 -8.0 @ASU
21. Oregon 12 8-2 8-4 +2.0 #7 Utah
22. Texas -- 6-4 8-4 -9.0 @Kansas
23. Louisville -- 6-4 8-4 -4.0 NC State(24)
24. UTSA -- 8-2 11-2 -13.0 Rice
25. Troy -- 8-2 11-2 -15.0 ULM
others
-- Tulane 21 8-2 9-3 -3.5 SMU
-- Oklahoma St 22 7-3 8-4 -7.5 @Oklahoma
-- NC State 24 7-3 7-5 +4.0 @ #23 Louisville
-- Cincinnati 25 8-2 10-3 -17.0 @Temple
The non-SEC portion of the top 5 doesn't look like they'll be challenged either: #2 Ohio State and #4 Clemson are major favorites against Maryland and Miami. But #6 TCU is in another tight game at Baylor. Week in and week out, the Horned Frogs are narrow favorites (if they are favorites), partially due to TCU's low-ish power rating and more because of the high average level of the Big Twelve. There's parity and it's on the strong side: the entire conference is in the top 43 in our Strength power rating and 9 of the 10 are in the top 34.
Under the radar: #10 North Carolina is a team to keep an eye on, as they keep piling up the wins and have an actual (outside) shot at the Playoff. They should have an easy time at Georgia Tech, but it also seems like one of those games that could sneak up on a team. Same with #12 Penn State at Rutgers. And #13 Mississippi has an actual tough assignment, traveling to Arkansas after their big letdown vs. Alabama.
Salvageable seasons: #17 Florida State and #18 Notre Dame are not in Playoff contention but have turned rough starts into decent seasons. Both are expected to win easily but BC has been an Irish spoiler in the past and is coming off a big upset over NC State. #19 UCF is going for the Group of Five New Year's Six throne; we think they'll get it, winning the American over Committee-ranked Tulane (21) and Cincinnati (25). The Knights host Navy and the Bearcats travel to Temple while the Green Wave have a much tougher challenge Thursday night vs. SMU.
Filling it out: This year's top 25 has been a mess at the bottom; we figure there will be about four 4-loss teams in the final top 25 compared to just two last year, and that's with UTSA and Troy eventually making it at 11-2. #22 Texas will probably make it back in by season's end, assuming they can beat a tough Kansas team on the road this weekend. #23 Louisville has a win over UCF and ought to have a win over current Committee (24) NC State as the Cardinals are favored by Vegas. There are a number of other teams that should finish 8-4 and we'll have to see which team crowds their way in.
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