This week's big game is #5 Tennessee at #1 Georgia, or in current Committee rankings, #1 at #3. And that is why I think Georgia will smoke Tennessee.
According to various sources the betting public is going heavily for Tennessee, who is an 8 point underdog. Makes sense: It's probably a close game, so even if the Vols don't win they can cover. Our power rating has Georgia by 6 or 7. But I don't think it will be that close. There are so many people disrespecting the Bulldogs that it has to be getting back to them and motivating them. They see Tennessee ranked #1 by the Committee and hear that everyone's betting on UT. Then they hear stuff like this, from "an SEC coach" per ESPN:
"I won't be surprised if Tennessee scores 50," one coach said.
Think that won't motivate the Bulldog defense? And remember, Georgia is playing at home. They have a lot on the line, and they're not going to underestimate Tennessee after the Alabama win. Georgia needs to win this game to stay in the National Title race. Think about it: if Tennessee is 13-0, Georgia is 11-1 and probably out. If Alabama beats Tennessee then both are 12-1 and Georgia is behind two SEC teams. Either way they're in trouble.
Georgia has had their weak moments this year and less-than-stellar games. But when things are on the line they come through, like against Missouri. And when motivated and playing at home, stuff like Georgia 49, Oregon 3 happens. That win is far more impressive than a 3-point win at home vs. Alabama. And against an offense almost as good as Tennessee's.
When making a prediction, it's best to go bold or go home. Why say "Tennessee by 3" or "Georgia wins but Tennessee covers", who cares about that? Or "Tennessee might win, but I think..." of course Tennessee might win. That goes without saying. But I have the gut feeling that Georgia will have something to prove playing at home and the Tennessee hype train ends here. Georgia 56, Tennessee 21.
SportsRatings Projected Final Committee Top 25, with Committee Rank, Line and next opponent
Rnk Team Comm Rec Proj Line This weekend 1. Georgia 3 8-0 13-0 -8.0 #5 Tennessee 2. Ohio State 2 8-0 13-0 -38.0 @Northwestern 3. Clemson 4 8-0 13-0 -3.5 @Notre Dame 4. USC 9 7-1 12-1 -21.5 @Cal 5. Tennessee 1 8-0 11-1 +8.0 @ #1 Georgia 6. Michigan 5 8-0 11-1 -26.0 @Rutgers 7. Alabama 6 7-1 11-2 -13.5 @ #18 LSU 8. Oregon 8 7-1 11-2 -31.5 @Colorado 9. Penn State 15 6-2 10-2 -14.0 @Indiana 10. Mississippi 11 8-1 10-2 --- IDLE 11. UCLA 12 7-1 10-2 -11.0 @ASU 12. Kansas St 13 6-2 10-3 +2.5 #20 Texas 13. TCU 7 8-0 10-3 -8.5 Texas Tech 14. Illinois 16 7-1 10-3 -17.0 Michigan St 15. Utah 14 6-2 9-3 -17.5 Arizona 16. UNC 17 7-1 10-3 -7.0 @Virginia 17. Syracuse 20 6-2 9-3 +3.5 @Pittsburgh 18. LSU 10 6-2 9-3 +13.5 #7 Alabama 19. Duke -- 5-3 9-3 -10.0 @Boston College 20. Texas 24 5-3 8-4 -2.5 @ #12 Kansas State 21. Baylor -- 5-3 8-4 +3.5 @Oklahoma 22. Wake Forest 21 6-2 8-4 -4.0 @NC State 23. Oklahoma St 18 6-2 8-4 EVEN @Kansas 24. Oregon St 23 6-2 8-4 +4.5 @Washington 25. Purdue -- 5-3 8-4 -3.5 Iowa
Yes, there are other games this weekend—lots of them. Only one team, #10 Mississippi, is idle. With all the focus on Tennessee-Georgia, don't forget that our #3 Clemson has a tough road game at Notre Dame. For a lot of the season we thought this would be Clemson's one loss, until the Irish stumbled. But it's still only a 3 1/2 point game. The Tigers could take a loss here and control their destiny to an ACC championship and very likely make the Playoff at 12-1. But it's not close to the guarantee they'd have at 13-0.
#7 Alabama is at #18 LSU but is still a two-touchdown favorite. The teams are much tighter by the Committee rankings (#6 and #10) and being at LSU this might be a close game, especially considering how LSU is playing lately. I look for another Alabama escape.
TCU, ranked #7 by the Committee, can't afford a stumble and they have a tough game against Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs keep winning after falling behind, and as long as they keep doing that they're on their way to the Playoff. But they haven't convinced our computer yet; it sees potential losses at Texas and Baylor, and against K-State in the title game. A convincing win this weekend might convince our computer that the Frogs can make it unblemished—and they might have to be unblemished to make the top four.
Many Ranked Underdogs
#12 Kansas State hosts #20 Texas and is actually a field goal underdog; our projection takes the Wildcats here on their way to a Big 12 title. Another ranked underdog is #17 Syracuse, who the oddsmakers say will lose at Pitt. Again we go with our favorite, the Orange. #21 Baylor is a 3 1/2 point favorite at Oklahoma. We go with the Bears.
We do agree with a few of the "upsets": #24 Oregon State is a 4 1/2 point underdog at Washington, and we agree. And #23 Oklahoma State vs. Kansas is a pick' em; we have the Jayhawks winning this game. This is why we end up with so many teams projected at 8-4—the Pac-12 and Big Twelve have a lot of good teams but few great ones. Same goes for the Big Ten and ACC, there is a solid middle of 8-4 level teams. Only the SEC has a stark dividing line, with five teams going 9-3 or better and pretty much 7-5 and worse down the line.
A few other teams might have close calls too. #22 Wake Forest is one of seven ACC teams that could finish in the lower half of the Top 25; they face NC State, another projected 8-4 team. They're a 4 point favorite, but we have the Wolf Pack winning at home. So why is Wake ranked and NC State isn't? It's really close, and Wake's wins over UNC and Syracuse (which haven't happened yet) put them ahead in the future. #25 Purdue hosts Iowa and is a slim favorite. We don't think the Boilermaker offense will score much on Iowa's defense, but that isn't a big cause for worry given Iowa's offense.
Comments