Did any team this week demonstrate that they belong among the Top Four? You would think that with things getting down to the nitty-gritty, teams would be at their most focused, yet this weekend saw the following happen among our top teams from last week:
- #1 Georgia scored just 16 points on Kentucky and won by 10
- #2 Ohio State allowed 30 against Maryland, leading only 33-30 in the 4th quarter
- #3 Tennessee got rocked and shocked by the Gamecocks of South Carolina, 63-38
- #5 Michigan needed a last-second field goal to beat Illinois
- #6 TCU needed to scramble onto the field to set up the game-winning last-second field goal vs. Baylor
- #7 Utah lost to Oregon by three points
- #9 USC beat UCLA by three points in a 48-45 shootout
- #10 North Carolina lost to 5-6 Georgia Tech
- #13 Mississippi lost to Arkansas 42-27 even after scoring 21 in the 4th quarter
- #19 UCF lost to 4-7 Navy
Among all the top teams, only #4 Clemson looked like a Playoff team in beating Miami 40-10. #8 Alabama won 34-0 but that was against Austin Peay. So what happens to Clemson? They get knocked out of the Playoff in our latest projection:
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj Odds% %Chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 11-0 13-0 92.7 +3.2 2 2. Ohio State 11-0 13-0 90.1 +2.7 6 3. TCU 11-0 13-0 68.1 +36.7 9 4. USC 10-1 12-1 44.9 +36.9 L@Utah 43-42 4 5. Clemson 10-1 12-1 36.1 -9.9 @Notre 35-14 5 6. Michigan 11-0 11-1 29.4 -8.3 @OhioSt 8 7. Alabama 9-2 10-2 11.3 +2.1 @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot 3 8. Tennessee 9-2 10-2 8.7 -43.6 @Georgia 27-13, @SCar 63-38 11 9. LSU 9-2 10-3 7.1 +1.3 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia 12 10. Penn State 9-2 10-2 5.5 +0.9 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31 21 11. Oregon 9-2 9-4 2.5 +2.1 @GA 49-3, Wash 37-34, @OreSt, =USC 16 12. Washington 9-2 9-3 0.9 -0.2 @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38, @WashSt 17 13. Florida St 8-3 9-3 0.7 -0.2 Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28 7 14. Utah 8-3 9-3 0.6 -10.7 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Ore 20-17 15 15. UCLA 8-3 9-3 0.5 -0.8 @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC 48-45 10 16. UNC 9-2 10-3 0.4 -6.5 @Notre 45-32, GTech 21-17, =Clemson 20 17. Oregon St 8-3 9-3 0.3 -0.1 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21 13 18. Mississippi 8-3 9-3 0.2 -3.3 @LSU 45-20, Alab 30-24, @Ark 42-27 18 19. Notre Dame 8-3 8-4 0.1 -0.4 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC new 20. Tulane 9-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 SMiss 27-24, UCF 38-31 14 21. Kansas St 8-3 9-4 0.0 -1.5 Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27, =TCU 22 22. Texas 7-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 Ala 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10 23 23. Louisville 7-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem 31-16 24 24. UTSA 9-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20 25 25. Troy 9-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28
Dropped out: #19 UCF (8-3/9-4)
It really looked like Clemson's dreams were going to come true for a while. Tennessee was losing big, and TCU was in trouble as usual. And UCLA was beating USC. All of the Tigers' possible roadblocks were going to fall. But even though the Volunteers lost, TCU and USC ended up winning and now both look like they can run the table the rest of the way—very bad news for Clemson.
Georgia and Ohio State remain on top with very healthy odds to go 13-0 or still make the Playoff if they don't. TCU now looks like they can—maybe—squeak past Kansas State to go 13-0 but this is far from certain. They have to beat Iowa State too, before that. Nothing is certain with TCU which is why their odds are far from certainty level.
Oregon's win over Utah not only propped the Ducks back to near the top ten, but it means that Oregon should get in the Pac-12 title game (even after losing to Oregon State) and play USC, a winnable game for the Trojans who are then 12-1 and in better shape than Clemson. Not just because they are already ahead of the Tigers in the Committee's rankings, but also because they play Notre Dame, the team that Clemson lost to. That really gives the Trojans the edge in a head-to-head comparison for the last spot—assuming they win. And North Carolina's loss to Georgia Tech diminishes Clemson's final résumé too.
Michigan barely beat Illinois but even had they lost they'd still be solidly in the Playoff hunt if they beat Ohio State. And that's looking more and more like a requirement. Like Clemson, Michigan's dream scenario almost occurred but only cleared Tennessee out of their path, while elevating two teams in front of the Wolverines should they lose to the Buckeyes as expected.
Speaking of Tennessee, after the blowout South Carolina loss the Committee in the end might not put them ahead of Alabama for a 3-point home win but certainly they'll be ahead of LSU assuming the Tigers finish 10-3. Even if the Tigers beat Georgia, which is a longshot itself, we still think they're a longshot to actually make the Playoff with 2 losses. 538 thinks otherwise, probably based on their current ranking of #6 in the Committee (pre-Tuesday announcement). ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave them a 45% chance last week if they win out, which seems more realistic but that will probably go up a lot when updated. We tend to think Georgia stays in; 538 vehemently disagrees (15% chance basically) while Predictor gives a 12-1 Georgia 84%. That's about where we are.
We show four Pac-12 teams from #11 to #15 and who knows what order they'll actually end up in, especially if Oregon State beats Oregon as we expect, and Washington State beats Washington. Right now the Ducks and Huskies are a bit ahead because they still have a theoretical chance of making the Playoff with 2 losses, while the others have three losses and have no actual chance (our formula still shows a fragment for several 3-loss teams nonetheless).
Tulane is our pick once again in the ever-revolving door that is the American Athletic Conference champ. We thought this had finally been settled after UCF beat both Tulane and Cincy on the field, but UCF's loss to Navy basically means that the winner of Tulane and Cincinnati will get the home field against UCF. And Tulane can win that game at home (even though they lost to home before to the Knights). In any rate, they move back in as UCF drops out, the only change in membership in our top 25.
Whether UTSA and Troy ever make their way in to the Committee's rankings, we'll have to see. It's getting rather stagnant at the bottom of the Committee's top 25, too, so I wouldn't be surprised if some new Group of Five teams enter this week. It might be Coastal Carolina, who we have pegged to lose to Troy for the Sun Belt title. Other than that, there are a lot of teams with 3 or 4 losses they could choose from, or they could keep all the American Athletic teams in despite the growing number of losses.
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