TCU has been all over the place in our projections—including both out altogether (pre-season) and at #3 and projected 13-0 (week 4)—so it should come as no surprise that the Horned Frogs in one week have gone from a projected 10-3 also-ran to a 12-1 contender. TCU has remained undefeated and thus controlled their destiny all year, but their just-in-time method of winning hasn't impressed our power ratings which keep calling for TCU losses that never materialize.
They're down to one projected loss after beating Texas, but that still keeps them from winning the Big 12 which keeps them out of the Playoff. They jump to #6, with a healthy 30.5% chance to make it but they current path is still rough. Baylor looks easier after last week's 31-3 loss to K-State, but that makes K-State look tougher for the conference title game. And Iowa State's 4-6 is deceptive. The game TCU loses might be the one no one is calling. Still, everyone agrees that if they win out, they're in...oh wait, the infamous All-State/ESPN Predictor says that a 13-0 TCU has an 12% chance of missing the Playoff. (Will somebody please fix that mess?)
But they're far better off than Oregon, upset losers to Washington in a game that tipped the Ducks last two games into the L column; we're now projected them at 8-4 but either way, a 2-loss team with one of those a 49-3 score doesn't make the Playoff. Like TCU, Oregon's been all over the place in our projection, including not being included in the pre-season because they were projected to be...8-4. Everything comes back around.
Meanwhile the rest of the top teams won and consolidated their positions. #3 Tennessee and #4 Clemson lost a touch of ground due to TCU's frightful presence, as a 13-0 TCU is a guarantee while no 1-loss team is. Michigan moved up to #5, probably their highest rank of the year, always just outside the top four, with their big chance getting closer.
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 11 (11/14)
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj%Odds %Chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 10-0 13-0 89.5 +6.2 2 2. Ohio State 10-0 13-0 87.3 +5.9 3 3. Tennessee 9-1 11-1 52.3 -2.6 @Georgia 27-13 4 4. Clemson 9-1 12-1 46.0 -3.0 @Notre 35-14 6 5. Michigan 10-0 11-1 37.7 +7.5 @OhioSt 14 6. TCU 10-0 12-1 30.5 +28.1 =KState 15 7. Utah 8-2 11-2 11.3 +9.7 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32 8 8. Alabama 8-2 10-2 9.2 -0.1 @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot 7 9. USC 9-1 11-2 8.0 -3.1 L@Utah 43-42, =Utah 16 10. UNC 9-1 11-2 6.9 +6.0 @Notre 45-32, =Clemson 11 11. LSU 8-2 10-3 5.8 -0.9 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia 12 12. Penn State 8-2 10-2 4.6 -1.2 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31 9 13. Mississippi 8-2 10-2 3.5 -4.9 @LSU 45-20, Alab 30-24 new 14. Kansas St 7-3 10-3 1.5 +1.5 Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27 10 15. UCLA 8-2 9-3 1.3 -6.3 @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC new 16. Washington 8-2 9-3 1.1 +1.1 @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38, @WashSt 17 17. Florida St 7-3 9-3 0.9 +0.1 Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28 18 18. Notre Dame 7-3 8-4 0.5 -0.1 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC 21 19. UCF 8-2 11-2 0.4 +0.1 Lou 20-14, @ECar 34-13 new 20. Oregon St 7-3 9-3 0.3 +0.3 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21 5 21. Oregon 8-2 8-4 0.3 -40.7 @GA 49-3, Wash 37-34, Utah, @OreSt 13 22. Texas 6-4 8-4 0.0 -3.2 Ala 20-19, TxT 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10 20 23. Louisville 6-4 8-4 0.0 -0.4 @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem 31-16 25 24. UTSA 8-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20 new 25. Troy 8-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28
Dropped out: #19 Illinois(8-4), #22 NC State(7-5), #23 Wake Forest(7-5), #24 Liberty(10-2)
Utah takes over as the designated Pac-12 champ, beating USC for the 2nd time this season, moving them up to #7. But the Trojans hang around at #9 because all they need is that Pac-12 title game win and they're nearly a lock at 12-1 with a 1-point road loss. They have to beat #15 UCLA first though, and the Bruins have nothing to lose now—nor much to fight for, let's be honest, after their embarrassing home loss to Arizona. A slew of Pac-12 teams occupy the top 25, including returning Washington, now projected at 9-3 but having only 2 losses meaning they have an outside, outside chance. Oregon State now edges Oregon and finishes 9-3 and at this point it's clear that any major-conference team at 9-3 or better will finish in the top 25.
Another peaking team is #10 North Carolina. Beating Wake Forest erased yet another projected loss and they're down to just one more—the ACC title game vs. Clemson. And if they win that, well, they have a shot. Not as good as Clemson, who only finishes #4 in our projection for presumably winning the ACC, but a shot nonetheless. They would need help to get past Michigan, maybe even 12-1 TCU, who knows. But the Committee says conference titles are golden, so they have a chance.
#11 LSU and another return entry, K-State, look destined to finish 10-3, and though K-State would have a conference title and LSU not, the Tigers probably still finish ahead. And they have the biggest opportunity of any 2-loss team: a chance to beat Georgia. That opportunity isn't likely to pay dividends though. Meanwhile Alabama, Penn State, and Mississippi will play out their schedules with no shot at playing in a conference title game, but a reasonable chance of finishing even higher as other teams are upset.
As has been the case for weeks, the bottom of the chart is ugly with multiple-loss teams. Some have big wins like Notre Dame—responsible for the loss of 2 of the 4 1-loss teams—while others have 3 or 4 losses all to good teams, but there's no longer anyone that can make a miracle run. North Carolina filled that role but now they've moved into the "hope" zone and everyone from #17 down is basically sunk despite the token percentages given here. The battle for Group of Five supremacy was won by UCF last week against Tulane, now they need to beat Cincinnati again, otherwise UTSA or even Troy might usurp them. But the Committee likes the American so Cincinnati would just replace UCF if they finish 11-2; right now we have UCF winning and Cincy finishing 10-3.
And quickly, the dropouts: Illinois lost their 3rd game in a row and look to be an unimpressive 8-4. Not that 8-4 precludes finishing in the top 25 this year, but the Illini don't have any good wins. NC State and Wake Forest both lost and look to be 7-5, which does keep teams out of the top 25. And Liberty fell to UMass, which isn't acceptable at all. When their only loss was Wake Forest by a point they had a good chance of slipping in amidst the 8-4 teams at 11-1, but 10-2 won't do.
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