2022 post-Week 10 Playoff Projection: Tennessee moves up for losing?

Tennessee lost to Georgia and it wasn't even close, but the Volunteers move from #5 to #3 in our Playoff Committee final standings projection.

The reason? Well, it helped a lot that #3 Clemson lost. It didn't help that #7 Alabama lost to LSU, which takes the shine off Tennessee's major achievement. But now Oregon is expected to beat USC, and Oregon lost to Georgia by 46 points. That alone could get Tennessee in at 11-1. The Vols gain 15% odds, and while Clemson loses over 25% for the Notre Dame loss, they remain "in" at #4.

Think about it: If Georgia and Ohio State end up 13-0 and #1 and #2, and there are four 1-loss teams left, who gets it? By the Committee's rules on emphasis it should be 12-1 Clemson and 12-1 Oregon, both conference champs. Oregon's resume may look better than Clemson, who lost to Notre Dame...but Tennessee is arguably well ahead of Oregon just based on how they did against Georgia. And once the choice is for #4, now you can't put the Ducks #4, positioned for an opener against Georgia? After losing by 46?

Don't think the Committee will think that way? I think it will be very hard for them to include Oregon; even at 12-1 they look destined for #5 unless other teams are cleared out. And Tennessee has to be #3 or they don't get in; the Vols won't be rematched against Georgia based on their dismal performance Saturday. The odd man out? Michigan, who at 11-1 would have neither a signature win or a conference championship. They need to beat Ohio State, or lose narrowly enough to make themselves look like the best option among the losers.  

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 10 (11/06)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %Chg  Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia        9-0  13-0  83.3  +3.0 
 2   2. Ohio State     9-0  13-0  81.4  +2.8 
 5   3. Tennessee      8-1  11-1  54.9 +15.3  @Georgia 27-13
 3   4. Clemson        8-1  12-1  49.0 -25.9  @Notre 35-14
 8   5. Oregon         8-1  12-1  41.0 +32.1  @Georgia 49-3
 6   6. Michigan       9-0  11-1  30.1 +13.4  @OhioSt
 4   7. USC            8-1  11-2  11.1 -36.2  L@Utah 43-42, =Oregon
 7   8. Alabama        7-2  10-2   9.3  -3.7  @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 9   9. Mississippi    8-1  10-2   8.4  +0.2  @LSU 45-20, Alabama
10  10. UCLA           8-1  10-2   7.6  +0.1  @Oregon 45-30, USC
18  11. LSU            7-2  10-3   6.7  +6.2  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia
11  12. Penn State     7-2  10-2   5.9  -0.8  @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
20  13. Texas          6-3  10-3   3.3  +2.9  Alab 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34
13  14. TCU            9-0  10-3   2.4  -1.7  @Texas, @Baylor, =Texas
15  15. Utah           7-2   9-3   1.6  -0.5  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Oregon
16  16. UNC            8-1  10-3   1.0  -0.4  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, =Clemson
new 17. Florida St     6-3   9-3   0.8  +0.8  Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
new 18. Notre Dame     6-3   8-4   0.6  +0.6  @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC
14  19. Illinois       7-2   9-4   0.5  -2.8  @Ind 23-20, MichSt 23-15, Mich, =OhioSt
new 20. Louisville     6-3   8-4   0.4  +0.4  @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem
new 21. UCF            7-2  11-2   0.3  +0.3  Lou 20-14, @ECar 34-13
new 22. NC State       7-2   8-4   0.2  +0.2  @Clem 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou, @UNC
22  23. Wake Forest    6-3   8-4   0.1  +0.0  Clem 51-45ot,@Lou 48-21,@NCSt 30-21,@Duke
new 24. Liberty        8-1  11-1   0.1  +0.1  @Wake 37-36
new 25. UTSA           7-2  11-2   0.0   0.0  @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20

Dropped out: #12 Kansas St (8-4), #17 Syracuse( 7-5), #19 Duke (8-4), #21 Baylor (8-4), #23 Oklahoma St (7-5), #24 Oregon St (8-4), #25 Purdue (7-5)

USC is still looking pretty good at #7, after all they didn't lose; they just looked bad enough to give Oregon the edge in the Pac-12 title game. Alabama only fell one spot to #8 because now they're probably not in the SEC title game and still end up with two losses. #9 Ole Miss has a tough path to the Playoff, while #10 UCLA's path is clearly but not too likely (beat USC and then Oregon in a rematch). LSU jumps to #11 but with 2 losses they probably end up #5 even if they beat Georgia, which is itself not likely. 

Texas is once again our Big 12 pick. Tune in next week to see if that flipped again, and if TCU's luck holds out it will. The Horned Frogs have a tough set of games coming up but they've made it through undefeated so far and still control their destiny to the Playoff. Their shaky performances don't inspire much confidence but if they beat the Longhorns they can move up fast.

The rest of the projection is a rotating door. The lower part of the projection has rarely looked so dismal, full of 8-4 teams because of huge chunks parity in the Big 12, the ACC, and the Big Ten. So we say goodbye this week to three Big 12 teams, two ACC teams, and one each from the Pac-12 and Big Ten, and welcome three from the ACC, two independents and two more from Group of Five conferences. The amount of 8-4 finishers is so huge that it opens the door for teams like UCF (now projected at 11-2, and already on the Committee's list), Liberty (set to finish 11-1), and UTSA. Notre Dame also gets back in after beating Clemson, but with 3 losses already they are window dressing at this point, as are FSU and Louisville.