Obviously, Ohio State blew it. They were in with a win, and lost. But losing to an 11-0 team isn't "blowing it" the way losing to a 7-4 team by one point is. Clemson could have been in position for a Playoff spot and they blew it.
At 12-1 with a conference championship, Clemson was arguably already even with a 12-1 USC. A loss by USC would mean the Tigers were in if they beat North Carolina. If TCU loses? Tigers would be there, lording their major-conference title over the Horned Frogs. Two chances to get in.
As it is now, Georgia and Michigan are almost certainly in even if they lose their title games. LSU is not going to replace Georgia. And Alabama also lost to LSU so where's the advantage for the Tide? You could argue for Ohio State moving in instead of Georgia, but then you're saying there should be two Big Ten teams and none from the SEC?
Michigan is a near-lock because of Ohio State, too. They will be ahead of the Buckeyes even if they lose to Purdue because they beat Ohio State soundly, and on the road. Again, there pretty much has to be one Big Ten team and it's going to be Michigan.
SportsRatings projected final committee standings: post-week 13 (11/27)
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj Odds% %Chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 12-0 13-0 98.7 +6.0 6 2. Michigan 12-0 13-0 95.3 +65.9 3 3. TCU 12-0 13-0 71.4 +3.2 4 4. USC 11-1 12-1 52.0 +7.1 L@Utah 43-42 2 5. Ohio State 11-1 11-1 42.4 -47.7 Mich 45-23 7 6. Alabama 10-2 10-2 16.1 +4.8 @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot 8 7. Tennessee 10-2 10-2 10.6 +1.9 @Georgia 27-13, @SCar 63-38 5 8. Clemson 11-2 11-2 7.2 -28.9 @ND 35-14, SCar 31-30 10 9. Penn State 10-2 10-2 3.1 -2.4 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31 12 10. Washington 10-2 10-2 1.0 +0.2 @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38 13 11. Florida St 9-3 9-3 0.5 -0.2 Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28 9 12. LSU 9-3 9-4 0.5 -6.6 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, @TexAM 38-23, =Georgia 17 13. Oregon St 9-3 9-3 0.4 +0.2 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21 11 14. Oregon 9-3 9-3 0.3 -2.1 @Georgia 49-3, Wash 37-34, @OreSt 38-34 15 15. UCLA 9-3 9-3 0.2 -0.3 @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC 48-45 14 16. Utah 9-3 9-4 0.1 -0.5 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Ore 20-17, =USC 20 17. Tulane 10-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 SMiss 27-24, UCF 38-31 21 18. Kansas St 9-3 9-4 0.0 0.0 Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27, =TCU 19 19. Notre Dame 8-4 8-4 0.0 -0.1 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC 38-27 22 20. Texas 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 Ala 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10 new 21. S. Carolina 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 Georgia 48-7, @Ark 44-30, Mizz 23-10, @Fla 38-6 new 22. NC State 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 BC 21-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou 25-10, @Clem 30-20 16 23. UNC 9-3 9-4 0.0 -0.4 @ND 45-32, GTech 21-17, NCst 30-27ot, =Clemson 24 24. UTSA 10-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20 25 25. Troy 10-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28
Dropped out: #18 Mississippi (8-4), #23 Louisville (7-5)
TCU has to beat Kansas State to be a lock for the Playoff, but at 12-1 they have a decent argument. Better than Ohio State? Maybe not, but if USC loses, too, then they're up against Alabama and Tennessee, and who has Alabama beaten anyway? Tennessee beat...Alabama. Ok.
USC is really the team that absolutely needs a win because the Committee would move Ohio State into that fourth spot very quickly. And they've got no gimme at all vs. Utah. This time the game is on a neutral field and USC is a very slight favorite. If the Trojans win they would be a lock in a perfect world: Power Five conference champ with their only loss (by one point) avenged at the end of the season? Like I said, should be a lock at that point but the Committee seems to hate USC for not having a good defense. But how is Ohio State any better there after the Michigan game? Both teams have an 11-point win over Notre Dame; Ohio State has a better win (Penn State) but USC beat UCLA and would have the Utah win; and USC's sole loss is so much more forgivable. Add in the conference championship and there should not be a question that USC is in at 12-1. But without it, their odds go to basically zero.
Ohio State must hope for a loss (preferably USC) and hope the Committee isn't stupid and puts a 2-loss SEC team in ahead of them. Alabama's losses were both very tight and on the road, but again, they've beaten no one (Ole Miss is no longer a viable brag). Tennessee has only the Bama win—and a win over LSU—to offset their big loss to South Carolina. I'd put them ahead of Alabama myself, but this projection is based on what the Committee probably will do, and ends up having Alabama in front (mostly because that's where they are in the Committee's rankings).
Below this point the odds are thin. Clemson still maybe has a prayer in an alternate universe, but looks like they'll finish about #8 and there aren't as many circumstances this year that could change in a week as their usually are. Penn State and Washington are 10-2 but don't get the love the SEC 10-2 teams get, so they're not getting in.
538's College Football Predictor still shows pretty lofty odds for 3-loss LSU (24%) and Utah (16%) if they win their conference titles. Which is completely ridiculous. No 3-loss team should have more than 0%, and I say that even as our odds show six 3-loss teams with up to 0.6%. Our system tries to account for Committee randomness by giving almost any ranked team some token chance, so there you go. But really, LSU almost a 1 in 4 chance of making the Playoff at 10-3? No way.
ESPN's projections show LSU and Utah at 4% and 0% if they win out, still too high for LSU's case but at least not crazy. But they also show Ohio State with an 88% of making the Playoff, even after their loss. They show USC at 12.2%, mostly from favoring Utah to win, but they seem to think 11-1 Ohio State is ahead of 12-1 USC in the pecking order. 538 shows a much more reasonable 31% for Ohio State, which goes to 44% if USC loses.
Oh wait, we forgot to mention: on 538, 9-3 Kansas State starts at 19%, which goes up to 46% if they win. There is NO CHANCE that Kansas State makes the Playoff! What is going on at 538, do they really overvalue the Conference title that much? ESPN does the opposite, seeming to think 11-1 Ohio State vastly outranks a 12-1 Power Five champ (USC is at 43% at 12-1).
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