2022 Initial Committee Rankings: our take

The Committee Rankings are coming out as we speak; this is our analysis of the first week's top 25.

First, our guess, based on our Combined Power rating, Success power rating, and the Committee's "groupings" selection method. Really, there are too many odd and inconsistent choices by the Committee early on; there's no method to their madness in the first week's top 25. Their Final rankings are a lot more predictable, which is a good thing.

SportsRatings guess for Committee first rankings:

  1. Georgia                     8-0
  2. Ohio State                  8-0
  3. Tennessee                   8-0
  4. Michigan                    8-0
  5. TCU                         8-0
  6. Clemson                     8-0
  7. Alabama                     7-1
  8. Oregon                      7-1
  9. Southern Cal                7-1
 10. LSU                         6-2
 11. UCLA                        7-1
 12. Utah                        6-2
 13. Mississippi                 8-1
 14. Kansas St                   6-2
 15. Tulane                      7-1
 16. Wake Forest                 6-2
 17. Syracuse                    6-2
 18. Illinois                    7-1
 19. Oklahoma St                 6-2
 20. Notre Dame                  5-3
 21. North Carolina              7-1
 22. Penn State                  6-2
 23. Maryland                    6-2
 24. Florida St                  5-3
 25. North Carolina St           6-2

I don't think Tennessee will be #1; Georgia is still the gold standard this season, and Ohio State has been impressive too. Tennessee will be at least #3, and all the undefeated teams have their positives and might finish ahead of Alabama. Though #7 is the lowest the Tide will possibly start.

After that, it's anyone's guess. Tulane might be the only non-Power Five school in the mix as the other contenders have either lost too often or have a ridiculously easy schedule. The Green Wave probably won't start as high as #15 but they'll be in the top 25.

The Committee's First Rankings:

1. Tennessee (8-0)- well, they went with the Vols after all. I figured Georgia's 49-3 win over Oregon was really the better win, but Tennessee does have the better SOS. 
2. Ohio State (8-0) - Here, the Committee went for pure Strength, as Ohio State doesn't have many good wins or a great SOS. But again, their SOS is better than Georgia's
3. Georgia (8-0) - Finally the Bulldogs. To me, Georgia is a combo of Ohio State's strength with a huge win to match Tennessee, but the Committee seemed to look at overall SOS when making the top four
4. Clemson (8-0) - Not a big surprise here really, the Tigers could have been anywhere from #1 to #7. They have more wins over 2-loss teams than anyone else, but those games were not dominant. Let's not pretend that the Clemson name isn't worth something either; if TCU and Clemson swapped results, they would still be where they are now.
5. Michigan (8-0) - About where we expected: behind Ohio State, but ahead of any 1-loss team
6. Alabama (7-1) - We should have known the Tide wouldn't be behind TCU. But overall this is a good placement, rather than the #3 or #4 some people were predicting.
7. TCU (8-0) - Any undefeated team that falls behind a 1-loss team has the right to complain, and TCU certainly does here. Alabama's best wins are over 3-loss teams, while TCU has two wins over 6-2 teams. Alabama's SOS is a bit better but it's pretty close. The Committee just doesn't like to look like they "sort by losses" I think. And like Clemson, the Alabama name sways them, enough to put Tennessee #1 for a 3-point home win over the Tide.
8. Oregon (7-1) - Finally we got a position correct! Oregon should be happy with this placement given their 49-3 loss to Georgia. Are there really just 5 spots between these teams, and 5 spots between Tennessee and Alabama, a 3-point game?
9. USC (7-1) - We're on a roll! Two spots in a row picked. This makes sense as the Trojans don't have many big wins and their loss to Utah was by 1 point
10. LSU (6-2) - Three in a row! I guess our quick-and-dirty method works well in the middle but not at the top. LSU was bound to be the top 2-loss team, with one loss to undefeated Tennessee and a 1-point loss to FSU. Add the Ole Miss win and the Tigers are top ten, but with little real shot at the Playoff. They win the SEC if they win out, but even that probably doesn't get them in with Tennessee and Georgia on the other side of the draw.
11. Mississippi (8-1) - The Committee was kind to Ole Miss, who doesn't have a good win and lost to LSU pretty badly. Their SOS isn't even good. Seriously, their best wins are Kentucky and Troy.
12. UCLA (7-1) - Three of the last five are Pac-12 teams, all fighting to finish 12-1 which should get them in, unless they are Oregon and are being compared to Georgia.
13. Kansas State (6-2) - We had K-State the #3 2-loss team and a notch further down. Losses to undefeated TCU and 7-1 Tulane, and wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Looking at the initial Committee rankings over the years they seem to really be swayed by the previous week's action, and K-State beat Oklahoma State 48-0 on Saturday.
14. Utah (6-2) -  Our guess had the Utes the 2nd place 2-loss team, instead they are third, but it's not too controversial as their opening loss to Florida looks poor in retrospect (if not at the time even). The win over USC pulls them up though.
15. Penn State (6-2) - The Nittany Lions got a break from the Committee. True, their only losses are to two undefeated teams which you can't really fault. But both were blowouts in the end. Their best wins are Purdue and Minnesota, which is ok. They have a very solid SOS but that's because they played Ohio State and Michigan.
16. Illinois (7-1) - This is about where we had the Illini, obviously one of the lower 1-loss teams as they fell at 3-5 Indiana in their 2nd game. Since then they've done well but the only winning team they've faced is 5-3 Minnesota. This is pretty generous by the Committee, but really, how far down can you put a 1-loss Power Five team at this stage?
17. North Carolina (7-1) - Apparently this is the lowest you can put a 1-loss Power Five team. The Tar Heels lost to Notre Dame, which isn't as bad as Illinois' loss, but their SOS is even lower. They beat 5-3 Duke, which is about equal to beating Minnesota at this point. We had UNC even lower (#21) and the Committee was generous with both teams.
18. Oklahoma State (6-2) - We had the Cowboys #19 so we can't really disagree with this placement. Losses to two ranked teams, and wins over Texas and Baylor, but that 48-0 blanking really affected their first week's rank.
19. Tulane (7-1) - We knew #15 was too high for the Committee to put a 1-loss Group of Five team in the first week—since if they win out at 12-1, they'd have to be even higher logically—but #19 is pretty good for the Green Wave, who beat Kansas State but then fell to Southern Miss (5-3, but not very good). The Committee tends to like the American Athletic Conference, which has major legitimacy from Cincinnati's run last year.
20. Syracuse (6-2) - The ACC needs teams here to help Clemson if the Tigers finish with a loss. We thought the Orange might be a bit higher but this isn't bad.
21. Wake Forest (6-2) - Ok, now the ACC is getting some recognition. Clemson's rank at #4 suggests that the Committee thinks highly of these 6-2 ACC teams.
22. NC State (6-2) - Yet another ACC team. We had them at #25 but they've only lost to Clemson and Syracuse, so they arguably belong here despite few good wins.
23. Oregon State (6-2) - This is important for the Pac-12. We didn't have them in the top 25 but there's no reason why not, at this level the teams are mostly the same and a dozen or so could fit here. The Beavers' only losses are to Utah and USC, and they beat 6-2 Boise State in their opener.
24. Texas (5-3) - I had a hunch we'd see Texas here due to their Strength rating and their close call with Alabama. In terms of good wins they have...Texas-San Antonio? And then there's the 49-0 shutout of Oklahoma. Not sure they're deserving of this ranking but on some weeks they play like a top ten team!
25. UCF (6-2) - The Knights are here so the Committee doesn't look too imbalanced with just Power Five teams. Instead it's 23 Power Five and two from the AAC. UCF earned this spot, which was Cincinnati's to lose, by beating Cincinnati, which is their only good win. UCF lost to East Carolina and Louisville, not great losses. It also means Louisville has wins over two teams in the top 25.

So there you have it. The teams we put in that didn't make it were: Notre Dame (5-3), Maryland (6-2), and FSU (5-3). Should they have been in? The Irish beat 7-1 North Carolina and 6-2 Syracuse, and not many teams inside the top 25 have two top 25 wins. But their bad losses to Marshall and Stanford, both at home, kept them out I'm sure. The Terps are under the radar at 6-2 having lost to Michigan and Purdue, and none of their six wins is over a winning team. In retrospect this wasn't a very good pick. And FSU has three losses, all to teams in the top 25, and a win over LSU as well as 5-3 Louisville. I'd say that résumé beats Texas, but the Longhorns had those two eye-catching games (Alabama and Oklahoma) while FSU hasn't dazzled (they beat LSU by a point, Louisville by 4).

In the end it's pretty disappointing to compare the initial Committee Top 25 to the current AP top 25. The Committee is supposed to be "better" and "more expert' than the AP sportswriters (how, exactly, I'm not sure). For whatever reason, people think the Committee really is the Gold Standard for college football rankings. Talk about how "they respect Strength of Schedule" and all that.

In the end, the Committee has 24 of the 25 teams in the AP Top 25. They traded out Liberty for Texas, that's it. Even the positions are very similar, and the Committee didn't necessarily rank them better. I think Tennessee at #1 instead of Georgia isn't right, and they kept Alabama ahead of TCU. The only major change they made was moving LSU up from #15 to #10. That's it, that's the only move of more than TWO spots from the AP as source material.

Ten teams had the same rank as the AP; eight teams were one spot away; five teams were two spots away. Then there was LSU, and Texas swapped in for Liberty, an obvious choice since Liberty's SOS is around #110.

Why do we have the Committee again?