Who still controls their destiny? How teams do if they win out

As of right now (pre-week 9), their are six undefeated teams, and seven teams that control their destiny to a Playoff berth. An additional 7 teams are likely to get in if they win out, but for them nothing is guaranteed.

A lot of this has to do with conference races. To get a Playoff berth, winning your conference really helps, but for some teams winning out doesn't necessarily give them a berth in their conference championship game. And while it's possible to make the Playoff without being conference champs, it's pretty rare to get a Playoff berth if you don't make your conference title game—only 2 of 32 Playoff teams fall into this category.

Here's my take on the odds for each undefeated or 1-loss team to win their conference, and to get into the Playoff, if they win out.

Team (rec) Conf Odds% / Playoff Odds% —if they win out.

1. Georgia (7-0) 100%/100%
2. Tennessee (7-0) 100%/100%
   If an SEC team goes 13-0, they not only are in the Playoff, they are also guaranteed the top seed. Georgia has to beat Tennessee and Alabama, while Tennessee has to beat Georgia, then probably Alabama a 2nd time!
3. Ohio State (7-0) 100%/100%
4. Michigan (7-0) 100%/100%
   Like the SEC, any 13-0 Big Ten team is obviously a Playoff lock, and they'll get the top seed unless there's a 13-0 SEC team.
5. Clemson (8-0) 100%/100%
6. TCU (7-0) 100%/100%
   The ACC and Big Twelve aren't as strong as the SEC and Big Ten and the Committee will seed 13-0 teams accordingly. The Big Twelve is probably stronger than the ACC, but Clemson is Clemson and would be the 3-seed if there are four 13-0 teams
7. Alabama (7-1) 100%/100%
   The Tide have a loss but that obviously won't matter if they beat Georgia or Tennessee and win the SEC at 12-1. They're guaranteed a berth in that situation, and probably only sit behind a 13-0 Big Ten teams in the seedings. If there are no undefeated teams, they are guaranteed the top seed.
8. Oklahoma State (6-1) 100%/95%
9. Illinois (6-1) 100%/90%
   Now we get to teams that might not get in if they win out, but they're almost assured of a Playoff spot. Both Oklahoma State and Illinois would win their Power Five conference, and even with a loss that has meant a Playoff spot 15 of 17 times. A 12-1 Oklahoma State would avenge their only loss (in overtime) to TCU so they're a 95% certainty. Illinois would have to beat Ohio State or Michigan and it would be hard to keep a 12-1 Illini out, though that loss to Indiana is much worse than Oklahoma State's loss so their odds are perhaps 90%. Still very certain.
10. USC (6-1) 99%/90%
11. Oregon (6-1) 100%/85%
12. UCLA (6-1) 95%/85%
    The Pac-12 has three 1-loss teams and a very weird tiebreaker system for their now-divisionless conference. Oregon has no conference losses so if they win out, they win the Pac-12. UCLA has a loss to Oregon but if they beat USC they're in the title game or at least a 3-way tie and probably in it, so they probably finish 12-1. USC could beat UCLA but still not get in the conference final as Utah could be 8-1 as well, and the Utes beat the Trojans. But odds are either Utah loses again, or Oregon loses and USC then (maybe?) wins a tiebreaker. Oregon's resume is better than UCLA's but that huge loss to Georgia (49-3) brings the Ducks down to the Bruins' level at 85%. Note that 538 seems to think USC is a Pac-12 lock if they win out, but I think we have it right. I take that back, 538 is probably right, if USC wins out they will make the Pac-12 final based on how the tiebreaker works: the worst they can be is a 3-way tie and they'll get in. We left it 99% though as the tiebreaker is so screwy there is probably some way they're left out.
13. North Carolina (6-1) 100%/80%
    The Tar Heels certainly win the ACC if they win out, but that doesn't guarantee them a Playoff spot. It probably gets them in as the Committee is committed to valuing conference championships, and plus they'd have a win over Clemson which makes them "legit" to the Committee. It helps if Notre Dame (UNC's sole loss) finishes 9-3, too.
14. Mississippi (7-1) 70%/75%
    The Rebels need some help to get to the SEC final. They can make the Playoff without it at 11-1, which is why their Playoff odds (75%) top their SEC title odds (70%) but not by much. LSU would have to lose another game, which is likely since they face Alabama too. If they do win the SEC at 12-1 they'll be among the top-ranked teams, having defeated Alabama and Georgia/Tennessee, so it's either feast or famine for the Rebels in terms of destiny control.
15. Penn State (6-1) 30%/35%
    Like Ole Miss, Penn State has a Playoff chance at 11-1 but unlike Ole Miss, their overall odds aren't great. If the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State, they need Ohio State to beat Michigan, and then they need to win the 3-team tiebreaker (which is about a 1 in 3 shot) or have Michigan 2 games (not too likely) so they win the tiebreaker with the Buckeyes. A 12-1 Penn State that wins the Big Ten is probably a 90% lock like a 12-1 Illinois, but at 11-1 they likely fall shot. Hence, our first team that doesn't control its destiny at all, really
16. Wake Forest (6-1) 5%/5%
17. Syracuse (6-1) 5%/5%
    These two ACC teams are really in the same boat. Both suffered narrow losses to Clemson and are in Clemson's division, so the Tigers—who have already won 8 games—have to lose two ACC games in the remaining four games. And Clemson only has two ACC games left! So 11-1 Wake or 11-1 Syracuse is probably not getting to the Playoff, and very unlikely to get the chance to be 12-1. We round to a 5% chance Clemson loses both games and opens the door so that a henceforth-unbeatable Deacs or Orange gets the chance to prove they're the best. But really, both these teams are as screwed as a 6-1 team can be.
18. Cincinnati (6-1) 100%/5%
19. Tulane (7-1) 100%/2%
    Two 1-loss teams remain in the American Athletic Conference, and with the no-division format they're both guaranteed to make the title game if they win out. A 12-1 Cincy is a far cry from last year's 13-0 Cincy, who also had a win over 11-1 Notre Dame. This year they have a loss to Arkansas. Meanwhile Tulane won't get the respect that Cincy does, even with a tougher schedule and a win over Kansas State. Now, if K-State wins the Big Twelve at 11-2, Tulane's odds go up, but probably not much due to having a loss to Southern Miss on the books. Even with extreme chaos, these 12-1 teams are super long shots.
20. Liberty (6-1) NA/1%
    Not having a conference puts Liberty in the same boat as Notre Dame without any of the "good graces" that the Irish get. The Flames' only argument at 11-1 would be that their only loss is to Wake Forest—a 1-point loss, at that. So if Wake Forest manages to go 12-1 and win the ACC, and Cincinnati goes 12-1 and wins the AAC, Liberty looks pretty good as they will have beaten the team (Arkansas) that beat Cincy. That's a whole lot of non-control of destiny right there.
21. Coastal Carolina (6-1) 98%/0%
    The Chanticleers will win the Sun Belt if they win out (probably—Old Dominion has to lose again) but a 12-1 Coastal Carolina with arguably a bottom ten schedule and a 49-21 loss to Old Dominion doesn't get near the Playoff under any circumstances.