UCLA lost to Oregon, meaning there's one less undefeated team in the 2022 college football season, but more importantly, we can stop saying that a 13-0 Power Five team is a 99% lock to make the Playoff. Now it's 100%, since the chance of being five 13-0 teams is 0%.
The following teams can still go undefeated (pending the rest of today's games):
- Clemson
- TCU
- Michigan or Ohio State
- Georgia or Tennessee
Syracuse and Mississippi also got their first loss today but those don't matter as they don't change the overall maximum of four 13-0 teams. Since Michigan plays Ohio State and Georgia plays Tennessee, there can only be one 13-0 team from four Power Five conferences, at most.
So ignore the All-State Playoff Predictor if it tells you that TCU has a 91% chance of making the Playoff if the Frogs go 13-0, or that a 13-0 Clemson has a 97% chance. Those numbers were low already given the tiny chance of 5 undefeated teams. They should all say >99%, or just say 100% because that's the reality. No 13-0 Power Five team is going to miss the Playoff.
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