I've harped on the problems with the All-State/ESPN Playoff Predictor many times, but I still get annoyed by it weekly. There's clearly something wrong with its determination of who makes the Playoff on each of its 200,000 runs. Because at this point in the season, no 13-0 team should be anything other than ">99%" but we still get these results:
- 13-0 Ohio State >99%
- 13-0 Georgia >99%
- 13-0 Clemson 97%
- 13-0 Tennessee >99%
- 13-0 Michigan >99%
- 13-0 TCU 86%
Ok the Clemson result is ridiculous enough. 13-0 Clemson missing the Playoff to...who, exactly? Three SEC teams?
And the TCU result is an abomination. One out of seven times their simulation encounters a 13-0 TCU, there's no room for the Horned Frogs in the top 4.
It seems like their most likely scenario for TCU being shut out is Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, where Alabama wins the SEC by beating Georgia but the Bulldogs still get it. I don't think the 1-loss team makes it there if TCU is 13-0. If there are four 13-0 teams, they're all in.
Clemson getting shut out is more intriguing. It doesn't look like their sim is going to put 13-0 TCU ahead of 13-0 Clemson, so there would have to be three SEC teams in the mix. Tennessee finishes 11-1 barely losing to Georgia, who barely loses to Alabama? Or Michigan?
I looked at the highest percentages I could make for 1-loss teams and got this:
- 12-1 Alabama, SEC champs: 98%
- 12-1 Georgia, SEC champs: 98%
- 12-1 Tennessee, SEC champs: 98%
- 12-1 Ohio State, Big Ten champs: 96%
- 12-1 Michigan, Big Ten champs: 87%
- 12-1 Mississippi, SEC champs: 77%
- 12-1 Clemson, ACC champs: 58%
- 12-1 USC, Pac-12 champs: 44%
- 12-1 TCU, Big Twelve champs: 38%
The SEC teams all have high numbers as SEC champs, except Ole Miss's inexplicable and ludicrous 77%. Any 12-1 SEC champs should be at >99%, there is no way a 12-1 SEC champ misses the Playoff, period.
But what if they don't win the SEC? Then it makes sense that they have lower odds:
- 12-1 Tennessee, SEC runner-up: 79%
- 11-1 Tennessee: 68%
- 12-1 Georgia, SEC runner-up: 68%
- 11-1 Georgia: 54%
- 11-2 Alabama, SEC runner-up: 43%
So if we look at Alabama's odds as SEC champ (>99%), Tennessee's odds as 12-1 runner-up (79%), and an 11-1 Georgia (54%), then all three teams make it under this scenario about 43% of the time. This is why 13-0 TCU and even 13-0 Clemson get left out of the party occasionally, in their estimation.
I say it is possible for the SEC to get three teams in the Playoff, but not until both Clemson and TCU lose a game. The All-State Predictor is treating both teams like they've already lost a game.
Let's not forget that 1-loss Power conference champs have made it 15 out of 17 times (omitting the odd 2020 season) which is an 88% clip. Yet here we have 13-0 TCU at only 86%, and 12-1 TCU at a ridiculous 38%.
So in conclusion: don't believe it. All 13-0 teams will make the Playoff. And any 12-1 SEC champ is a lock, too, including Mississippi. Other 12-1 power conference champs should get in but it's possible they might not. And at 12-1 with a conference title game loss, or at 11-1 you better be from the SEC (or possibly the Big Ten) to have any chance.
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