SportsRatings: College Football

2022 post-Week 9 Playoff Projection: All of the long-shots are no-shots

Not much happened to shake up the Projected Playoff picture, which meant that the long-shot teams—which have been drying up for weeks—are downright starved anymore. But first let's look at the top of the Projection:

The top four were unchanged, all gaining a small amount because "business as usual" is good for the top teams. Former #5 TCU hit a major bump because of what Kansas State did to Oklahoma State. A Wildcat win was figured into the projection already, when K-State was #23 and Oklahoma State #14. But nothing like 48-0. That win made K-State the favorite to beat TCU in the Big Twelve title game; the last meeting between the teams ended in a TCU home win, 38-28. The Horned Frogs aren't the favorite to beat Baylor anymore. Parity is killing the Big Twelve, which looks very likely to miss out on a Playoff spot. But who knows, things can change fast and TCU is 8-0 so they control their destiny.

The main recipient of TCU's lost odds went to Tennessee, who at 8-0 has a number of ways to get to the Playoff and not a lot has to happen for them to be favored to get a spot. Their most likely trajectory is an 11-1 finish, losing to 13-0 Georgia which isn't a bad spot to be in. Or, if they beat Georgia and lose to Alabama they're got a hell of a résumé at 12-1 and a win over the Bulldogs and the Tide. And of course they could win out and guarantee the top spot. Right now they're still a touch behind Pac-12 fave USC who only has one path. #6 Michigan and #7 Alabama's odds improved, but they also have fewer paths than the Vols. After that we have teams with major résumé flaws (Oregon), teams whose path playing out is unlikely (Mississippi, UCLA), and teams that are counting on chaos (Penn State). Yet all of these teams still show a fairly high Odds% because there is such a limited set of teams that appear to be headed for a decent finish!

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 9 (10/31)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %Chg  Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia        8-0  13-0  80.3  +1.8 
 2   2. Ohio State     8-0  13-0  78.6  +1.7 
 3   3. Clemson        8-0  13-0  74.8  +1.6 
 4   4. USC            7-1  12-1  47.3  +1.0  L@Utah 43-42
 6   5. Tennessee      8-0  11-1  39.6 +23.4  @Georgia
 7   6. Michigan       8-0  11-1  16.7  +4.2  @OhioSt
 8   7. Alabama        7-1  11-2  13.0  +2.1  @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia
15   8. Oregon         7-1  11-2   8.9  +5.9  @Georgia 49-3, =USC
10   9. Mississippi    8-1  10-2   8.2  +0.8  @LSU 45-20, Alabama
11  10. UCLA           7-1  10-2   7.5  +0.7  @Oregon 45-30, USC
 9  11. Penn State     6-2  10-2   6.7  -1.3  @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
23  12. Kansas St      6-2  10-3   4.8  +4.6  Tulane 17-10, @TCU 38-28, @Baylor
 5  13. TCU            8-0  10-3   4.1 -34.6  @Texas, @Baylor, =KState
16  14. Illinois       7-1  10-3   3.4  +1.0  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
13  15. Utah           6-2   9-3   2.1  -3.4  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Oregon
20  16. UNC            7-1  10-3   1.3  +0.9  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, =Clemson
12  17. Syracuse       6-2   9-3   0.6  -5.5  @Clemson 27-21, Notre 41-24, @Wake
19  18. LSU            6-2   9-3   0.5  -0.1  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Alabama
new 19. Duke           5-3   9-3   0.4  +0.4  @Kans 35-27, @GTech 23-20ot, UNC 38-35
21  20. Texas          5-3   8-4   0.3  +0.1  Alab20-19, TTech37-34ot, @Okst41-34, @KSt
new 21. Baylor         5-3   8-4   0.2  +0.2  @BYU26-20ot, OKst36-25, @WVa43-40, @Tex
18  22. Wake Forest    6-2   8-4   0.1  -0.5  Clem 51-45ot, @Lou 48-21, @NCSt, @Duke
14  23. Oklahoma St    6-2   8-4   0.1  -3.6  @TCU 43-40ot, @KSt 48-0, @Kans, @Okla 
new 24. Oregon St      6-2   8-4   0.1  +0.1  USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash, Ore
new 25. Purdue         5-3   8-4   0.1  +0.1  @PSU 35-31, @Syr 32-29, @Wisc 35-24, @ILL

Dropped out: #17 NC State (8-4), #22 Tulane (10-3), #24 FSU (8-4), #25 Washington State (8-4)

And the further down the chart we go, the more actual losses these teams have and we also run into a slew of projected 8-4 teams. Normally at this stage there are a lot more teams with some real hope. The teams projected to be 8-4 might only have one loss (like North Carolina), or more of the teams with two losses have a decent probability of winning out. Not right now; the teams at the bottom of the Projection have several losses and more are on their way. They have a token Percentage to make the Playoff based on their Top 25 finish and that's really it. Normally a team projected to finish #20 after week 9 has at least a 1.0% chance, but our #20 is Texas, who is 5-3 and really has 0% chance. And they're projected to lose another game! For comparison, last year's final Committee standings ranked just one 8-4 team.

The glut of projected 8-4 teams means that the bottom of the Top 25 here is essentially random; teams will move in and out as they have good or bad performances, and any one team is so close to another there's no real separation. Why Purdue and not 8-4 Wisconsin who beat them? Why Oregon State and not 8-4 Washington who is projected to beat them? Just a 1/100th of a point here or there in the formula really. And the Committee of course will do what it does. The first Committee Standings coming out tomorrow will actually help a lot in sorting out the bottom of our Projected Final Top 25, by showing exactly where they stand right now relative to other teams. The 3-loss teams won't appear in it, but where the 2-loss teams are placed will reveal their current value.

The list also has no Group of Five teams for the first time with the exit of Tulane. It's a curious case, too. The Green Wave didn't even play and their projected record fell from 12-1 to 10-3. Here's where it gets weird: Tulane beat Kansas State, who had the biggest win of their season beating Oklahoma State. You would think that would cause Tulane's Strength rating to get pulled upward in concert, but no: almost all of Tulane's other opponents did worse than expected. Especially Alcorn State, who lost to lowly Grambling, a loss that hurt Tulane even more than K-State's huge win!

The upshot was that Tulane now narrowly loses to Cincinnati. Which gives Cincy home field for the American title game. Hence Tulane's 3 losses. But why isn't Cincy in the Final Top 25 then? They lost this weekend to UCF and project to 11-2 which keeps them just outside.

When we start factoring in the Committee's current top 25 there will be some change here, but not that much: more of that happens later, since the Committee's view of things becomes more and more relevant each week, as there are fewer games left to be played.

2022 Week 9 Preview: In conference race, don't lose to a good team

Conventional wisdom is that if you have to lose, lose to a really good team so you don't get saddled with a "bad loss" but the 2-division format of most Conferences makes that bad advice. Most of the time, a loss to a mediocre team is a lot better for your Playoff chances.

Case in point: #1 Georgia. They play Florida at the "neutral" Jacksonville site and what happens if they lose? Are they struggling, hoping for all sorts of losses from other teams? No, they still control their own destiny to a 12-1 finish and a certain Playoff berth.

Meanwhile #2 Ohio State plays at #9 Penn State. Surely a loss to the Nittany Lions won't slow down the Buckeyes much at all, can't be worse than a loss to 4-3 Florida, could it? Well if the Buckeyes lose, even if they beat Michigan there will be a 3-way tie for the Big Ten East and who knows how that plays out. In other words, destiny control is not assured.

You see it with #6 Tennessee and #7 Michigan too. Kentucky and Michigan State aren't threats to win their division, so the Vols and Wolverines still control their destiny to win their conference and get a certain bid. Note that this only works for conferences where a 12-1 finish and conference title guarantees a Playoff berth. #5 TCU no longer controls their destiny if they lose to West Virginia. And you have to be undefeated, too: #4 USC can't take a loss to Arizona.

SportsRatings Projected Final Top 25 Committee Rankings, with Line and next game

Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  Line  This weekend
 1. Georgia         7-0  13-0 -22.5  = Florida 
 2. Ohio State      7-0  13-0 -15.5  @ #9 Penn State    
 3. Clemson         8-0  13-0  ---     idle    
 4. USC             6-1  12-1 -15.5  @ Arizona
 5. TCU             7-0  12-1  -7.5  @ West Virginia   
 6. Tennessee       7-0  11-1 -12.5  Kentucky   
 7. Michigan        7-0  11-1 -22.0  Michigan State   
 8. Alabama         7-1  11-2  ---     idle  
 9. Penn State      6-1  10-2 +15.5  #2 Ohio State
10. Mississippi     7-1  10-2  -2.5  @ Texas A&M   
11. UCLA            6-1  10-2 -16.5  Stanford  
12. Syracuse        6-1  10-2  -2.5  Notre Dame  
13. Utah            5-2  10-2  -7.0  @ #25 Wash State 
14. Oklahoma St     6-1  10-3  +1.5  @ #23 Kansas St
15. Oregon          6-1  10-3 -17.0  @ California   
16. Illinois        6-1  10-3  -7.5  @ Nebraska   
17. NC State        5-2   9-3 -13.5  Virginia Tech  
18. Wake Forest     6-1   9-3  -3.5  @ Louisville   
19. LSU             6-2   9-3  ---     idle  
20. UNC             6-1   9-4  -3.0  Pittsburgh  
21. Texas           5-3   9-3  ---     idle  
22. Tulane          7-1  12-1  ---     idle  
23. Kansas St       5-2   8-4  -1.5  #14 Oklahoma St  
24. Florida St      4-3   8-4 -24.0  Georgia Tech  
25. Washington St   4-3   8-4  +7.0  #13 Utah  

The first really interesting game on the slate is #10 Mississippi at Texas A&M, where the Rebels are not even a field goal favorite; the same goes for #12 Syracuse hosting Notre Dame. Both the Aggies and the Irish are stocked with talent which made them pre-season faves, and the oddsmakers know that talent can rear its head at any moment.

Further, #14 Oklahoma State is actually an underdog vs. #23 Kansas State. Our projection agrees with that result, one reason K-State got back into our projection despite losing to TCU—when OK State beat Texas and joined the Top 25, it gave K-State a boost. The Cowboys can improve their odds a lot with a win, while the Wildcats fall off the chart, again, if they lose.

Other close calls, per the oddsmakers: #18 Wake Forest is a narrow favorite over Louisville. Here again, our projection has the Cardinals winning and being one of Wake's 2 future losses. So the Deacons can move up if they win. And #20 North Carolina is a slim fave over Pittsburgh at home. This is because the Tar Heels aren't very highly thought of in power ratings. We have them #59, and Pitt #60, so it's only home field that gives them the win in our book. It's also why 6-1 UNC is projected to 9-4—winning their division at 9-3 and falling to Clemson in the ACC title game. But at 6-1 the Tar Heels are in better shape than almost any team in the bottom 10 of the projection, and better than #17 NC State and #18 Wake Forest, because they are much closer to controlling their destiny than those teams, both of whom are in Clemson's division and have lost to the Tigers already. We just doubt they'll win out—the trickiest part of "controlling your destiny."

Who still controls their destiny? How teams do if they win out

As of right now (pre-week 9), their are six undefeated teams, and seven teams that control their destiny to a Playoff berth. An additional 7 teams are likely to get in if they win out, but for them nothing is guaranteed.

A lot of this has to do with conference races. To get a Playoff berth, winning your conference really helps, but for some teams winning out doesn't necessarily give them a berth in their conference championship game. And while it's possible to make the Playoff without being conference champs, it's pretty rare to get a Playoff berth if you don't make your conference title game—only 2 of 32 Playoff teams fall into this category.

Here's my take on the odds for each undefeated or 1-loss team to win their conference, and to get into the Playoff, if they win out.

Team (rec) Conf Odds% / Playoff Odds% —if they win out.

1. Georgia (7-0) 100%/100%
2. Tennessee (7-0) 100%/100%
   If an SEC team goes 13-0, they not only are in the Playoff, they are also guaranteed the top seed. Georgia has to beat Tennessee and Alabama, while Tennessee has to beat Georgia, then probably Alabama a 2nd time!
3. Ohio State (7-0) 100%/100%
4. Michigan (7-0) 100%/100%
   Like the SEC, any 13-0 Big Ten team is obviously a Playoff lock, and they'll get the top seed unless there's a 13-0 SEC team.
5. Clemson (8-0) 100%/100%
6. TCU (7-0) 100%/100%
   The ACC and Big Twelve aren't as strong as the SEC and Big Ten and the Committee will seed 13-0 teams accordingly. The Big Twelve is probably stronger than the ACC, but Clemson is Clemson and would be the 3-seed if there are four 13-0 teams
7. Alabama (7-1) 100%/100%
   The Tide have a loss but that obviously won't matter if they beat Georgia or Tennessee and win the SEC at 12-1. They're guaranteed a berth in that situation, and probably only sit behind a 13-0 Big Ten teams in the seedings. If there are no undefeated teams, they are guaranteed the top seed.
8. Oklahoma State (6-1) 100%/95%
9. Illinois (6-1) 100%/90%
   Now we get to teams that might not get in if they win out, but they're almost assured of a Playoff spot. Both Oklahoma State and Illinois would win their Power Five conference, and even with a loss that has meant a Playoff spot 15 of 17 times. A 12-1 Oklahoma State would avenge their only loss (in overtime) to TCU so they're a 95% certainty. Illinois would have to beat Ohio State or Michigan and it would be hard to keep a 12-1 Illini out, though that loss to Indiana is much worse than Oklahoma State's loss so their odds are perhaps 90%. Still very certain.
10. USC (6-1) 99%/90%
11. Oregon (6-1) 100%/85%
12. UCLA (6-1) 95%/85%
    The Pac-12 has three 1-loss teams and a very weird tiebreaker system for their now-divisionless conference. Oregon has no conference losses so if they win out, they win the Pac-12. UCLA has a loss to Oregon but if they beat USC they're in the title game or at least a 3-way tie and probably in it, so they probably finish 12-1. USC could beat UCLA but still not get in the conference final as Utah could be 8-1 as well, and the Utes beat the Trojans. But odds are either Utah loses again, or Oregon loses and USC then (maybe?) wins a tiebreaker. Oregon's resume is better than UCLA's but that huge loss to Georgia (49-3) brings the Ducks down to the Bruins' level at 85%. Note that 538 seems to think USC is a Pac-12 lock if they win out, but I think we have it right. I take that back, 538 is probably right, if USC wins out they will make the Pac-12 final based on how the tiebreaker works: the worst they can be is a 3-way tie and they'll get in. We left it 99% though as the tiebreaker is so screwy there is probably some way they're left out.
13. North Carolina (6-1) 100%/80%
    The Tar Heels certainly win the ACC if they win out, but that doesn't guarantee them a Playoff spot. It probably gets them in as the Committee is committed to valuing conference championships, and plus they'd have a win over Clemson which makes them "legit" to the Committee. It helps if Notre Dame (UNC's sole loss) finishes 9-3, too.
14. Mississippi (7-1) 70%/75%
    The Rebels need some help to get to the SEC final. They can make the Playoff without it at 11-1, which is why their Playoff odds (75%) top their SEC title odds (70%) but not by much. LSU would have to lose another game, which is likely since they face Alabama too. If they do win the SEC at 12-1 they'll be among the top-ranked teams, having defeated Alabama and Georgia/Tennessee, so it's either feast or famine for the Rebels in terms of destiny control.
15. Penn State (6-1) 30%/35%
    Like Ole Miss, Penn State has a Playoff chance at 11-1 but unlike Ole Miss, their overall odds aren't great. If the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State, they need Ohio State to beat Michigan, and then they need to win the 3-team tiebreaker (which is about a 1 in 3 shot) or have Michigan 2 games (not too likely) so they win the tiebreaker with the Buckeyes. A 12-1 Penn State that wins the Big Ten is probably a 90% lock like a 12-1 Illinois, but at 11-1 they likely fall shot. Hence, our first team that doesn't control its destiny at all, really
16. Wake Forest (6-1) 5%/5%
17. Syracuse (6-1) 5%/5%
    These two ACC teams are really in the same boat. Both suffered narrow losses to Clemson and are in Clemson's division, so the Tigers—who have already won 8 games—have to lose two ACC games in the remaining four games. And Clemson only has two ACC games left! So 11-1 Wake or 11-1 Syracuse is probably not getting to the Playoff, and very unlikely to get the chance to be 12-1. We round to a 5% chance Clemson loses both games and opens the door so that a henceforth-unbeatable Deacs or Orange gets the chance to prove they're the best. But really, both these teams are as screwed as a 6-1 team can be.
18. Cincinnati (6-1) 100%/5%
19. Tulane (7-1) 100%/2%
    Two 1-loss teams remain in the American Athletic Conference, and with the no-division format they're both guaranteed to make the title game if they win out. A 12-1 Cincy is a far cry from last year's 13-0 Cincy, who also had a win over 11-1 Notre Dame. This year they have a loss to Arkansas. Meanwhile Tulane won't get the respect that Cincy does, even with a tougher schedule and a win over Kansas State. Now, if K-State wins the Big Twelve at 11-2, Tulane's odds go up, but probably not much due to having a loss to Southern Miss on the books. Even with extreme chaos, these 12-1 teams are super long shots.
20. Liberty (6-1) NA/1%
    Not having a conference puts Liberty in the same boat as Notre Dame without any of the "good graces" that the Irish get. The Flames' only argument at 11-1 would be that their only loss is to Wake Forest—a 1-point loss, at that. So if Wake Forest manages to go 12-1 and win the ACC, and Cincinnati goes 12-1 and wins the AAC, Liberty looks pretty good as they will have beaten the team (Arkansas) that beat Cincy. That's a whole lot of non-control of destiny right there.
21. Coastal Carolina (6-1) 98%/0%
    The Chanticleers will win the Sun Belt if they win out (probably—Old Dominion has to lose again) but a 12-1 Coastal Carolina with arguably a bottom ten schedule and a 49-21 loss to Old Dominion doesn't get near the Playoff under any circumstances.

2022 post-week 8 Playoff projection: Top 4 unchanged, TCU knocking on door again

Nothing changed at the top of our Playoff Projection; the top four teams either won (#2 Ohio State, #3 Clemson) or didn't play (#1 Georgia, #4 USC). But those outside and looking in had some bad news, though it was nothing they did wrong.

The problem was previous #9 Texas's loss to Oklahoma State, which set up the Cowboys as TCU's opponent in the Big 12 title game. TCU survived against Kansas State and now looks again like a 12-1 conference champ, putting them roughly on par with #4 USC. That's bad news for the 11-1 teams that aren't projected to make their conference title game, like Tennessee and Michigan, whose odds drop by double digits and slide a spot along with now-#8 Alabama. TCU moves from #10 to #5, just outside the Playoff zone.

Note that all of these teams—TCU, Tennessee, Michigan, and Alabama—control their destiny to the Playoff. Even Mississippi holds a key to the SEC championship game and a guaranteed Playoff berth. That's why their upset loss to #19 LSU doesn't knock them down more than a few spots. #9 Penn State takes advantage of their loss, and UCLA's expected loss to Oregon, to move to #9. The Nittany Lions don't control their destiny however.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 8 (10/24)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %Chg  Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia        7-0  13-0  78.5  +2.6   
 2   2. Ohio State     7-0  13-0  76.9  +2.5   
 3   3. Clemson        8-0  13-0  73.2  +2.4   
 4   4. USC            6-1  12-1  46.4  +5.6  L@Utah 43-42
10   5. TCU            7-0  12-1  38.7 +29.5  @Texas
 5   6. Tennessee      7-0  11-1  16.2 -15.0  @Georgia
 6   7. Michigan       7-0  11-1  12.5 -13.1  @OhioSt
 7   8. Alabama        7-1  11-2  10.9  -7.2  @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia
12   9. Penn State     6-1  10-2   8.1  +2.0  @Michigan 41-17, OhioSt
 8  10. Mississippi    7-1  10-2   7.4  -2.9  @LSU 45-20, Alabama
11  11. UCLA           6-1  10-2   6.8  +0.1  @Oregon 45-30, USC
13  12. Syracuse       6-1  10-2   6.1  +0.6  @Clemson 27-21, @Wake
14  13. Utah           5-2  10-2   5.4  +0.6  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32
new 14. Oklahoma St    6-1  10-3   3.7  +3.7  @TCU 43-40ot, @KState, =TCU  
15  15. Oregon         6-1  10-3   3.1  -0.3  @Georgia 49-3, Utah, =USC
16  16. Illinois       6-1  10-3   2.4  -0.3  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
17  17. NC State       5-2   9-3   1.2  -0.5  @Clemson 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou
18  18. Wake Forest    6-1   9-3   0.6  -0.4  Clemson 51-45ot, @Lou, @NCSt
25  19. LSU            6-2   9-3   0.5  +0.4  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Alabama
21  20. UNC            6-1   9-4   0.4   0.0  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, @NCst, =Clem
 9  21. Texas          5-3   9-3   0.3  -9.5  Alabama 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34
new 22. Tulane         7-1  12-1   0.2  +0.2  SMiss 27-24
new 23. Kansas St      5-2   8-4   0.2  +0.2  Tulane 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Texas, @Baylor
24  24. Florida St     4-3   8-4   0.1   0.0  Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem 34-28, @Syr
new 25. Washington St  4-3   8-4   0.1  +0.1  Ore 44-41, @USC 24-10, @OreSt 24-10, Utah

Dropped out: #19 UCF (9-4), #20 South Alabama (11-2), #22 Purdue (8-4), #23 Minnesota (8-4)

Beyond that, not too much happened that changed things in a big way. As mentioned Oregon was supposed to beat UCLA, and Clemson was supposed to get past Syracuse (an Orange win would have really shaken things up). Due to the Oklahoma State loss knocking Texas to #21, UCLA and Syracuse's odds actually bumped up a bit, while Oklahoma State's entry at #14 pushed Oregon's odds down. LSU's upset win improved their odds from nearly impossible to just-a-little-less impossible. 

In the lower rungs, Kansas State came back in the top 25 despite losing to TCU. The key was Tulane's surge into the top 25. And the key to that was UCF's terrible 34-13 loss to East Carolina. That loss knocked UCF out of consideration and made Tulane the go-to team from the American at 12-1, with a bonus win at K-State. And suddenly that loss doesn't hurt the Wildcats like it did before.

And Washington State peeks in at #25, at least for now. The Cougars have three losses already, so their ranking reflects where they might end up, not any alleged odds of making the Playoff (even 0.1% is too generous). They get in because Purdue and Minnesota both rank below Wisconsin (now projected at 8-4 again), who Washington State beat.

And finally South Alabama falls out after losing to Troy. They still look like the Sun Belt winners to us, but that's probably not going to get them in the Final Committee Top 25.

Predictably, the All-State Predictor hates 13-0 teams from the ACC, Big Twelve

I've harped on the problems with the All-State/ESPN Playoff Predictor many times, but I still get annoyed by it weekly. There's clearly something wrong with its determination of who makes the Playoff on each of its 200,000 runs. Because at this point in the season, no 13-0 team should be anything other than ">99%" but we still get these results:

• 13-0 Ohio State >99%
• 13-0 Georgia >99%
• 13-0 Clemson 97%
• 13-0 Tennessee >99%
• 13-0 Michigan >99%
• 13-0 TCU 86%

Ok the Clemson result is ridiculous enough. 13-0 Clemson missing the Playoff to...who, exactly? Three SEC teams?

And the TCU result is an abomination. One out of seven times their simulation encounters a 13-0 TCU, there's no room for the Horned Frogs in the top 4.

It seems like their most likely scenario for TCU being shut out is Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, where Alabama wins the SEC by beating Georgia but the Bulldogs still get it. I don't think the 1-loss team makes it there if TCU is 13-0. If there are four 13-0 teams, they're all in.

Clemson getting shut out is more intriguing. It doesn't look like their sim is going to put 13-0 TCU ahead of 13-0 Clemson, so there would have to be three SEC teams in the mix. Tennessee finishes 11-1 barely losing to Georgia, who barely loses to Alabama? Or Michigan?

I looked at the highest percentages I could make for 1-loss teams and got this:

• 12-1 Alabama, SEC champs: 98%
• 12-1 Georgia, SEC champs: 98%
• 12-1 Tennessee, SEC champs: 98%
• 12-1 Ohio State, Big Ten champs: 96%
• 12-1 Michigan, Big Ten champs: 87%
• 12-1 Mississippi, SEC champs: 77%
• 12-1 Clemson, ACC champs: 58%
• 12-1 USC, Pac-12 champs: 44%
• 12-1 TCU, Big Twelve champs: 38%

The SEC teams all have high numbers as SEC champs, except Ole Miss's inexplicable and ludicrous 77%. Any 12-1 SEC champs should be at >99%, there is no way a 12-1 SEC champ misses the Playoff, period.

But what if they don't win the SEC? Then it makes sense that they have lower odds:

• 12-1 Tennessee, SEC runner-up: 79%
• 11-1 Tennessee: 68%
• 12-1 Georgia, SEC runner-up: 68%
• 11-1 Georgia: 54%
• 11-2 Alabama, SEC runner-up: 43%

So if we look at Alabama's odds as SEC champ (>99%), Tennessee's odds as 12-1 runner-up (79%), and an 11-1 Georgia (54%), then all three teams make it under this scenario about 43% of the time. This is why 13-0 TCU and even 13-0 Clemson get left out of the party occasionally, in their estimation.

I say it is possible for the SEC to get three teams in the Playoff, but not until both Clemson and TCU lose a game. The All-State Predictor is treating both teams like they've already lost a game.

Let's not forget that 1-loss Power conference champs have made it 15 out of 17 times (omitting the odd 2020 season) which is an 88% clip. Yet here we have 13-0 TCU at only 86%, and 12-1 TCU at a ridiculous 38%.

So in conclusion: don't believe it. All 13-0 teams will make the Playoff. And any 12-1 SEC champ is a lock, too, including Mississippi. Other 12-1 power conference champs should get in but it's possible they might not. And at 12-1 with a conference title game loss, or at 11-1 you better be from the SEC (or possibly the Big Ten) to have any chance.

 

UCLA loses; from now on, any 13-0 team 100% makes the Playoff

UCLA lost to Oregon, meaning there's one less undefeated team in the 2022 college football season, but more importantly, we can stop saying that a 13-0 Power Five team is a 99% lock to make the Playoff. Now it's 100%, since the chance of being five 13-0 teams is 0%.

The following teams can still go undefeated (pending the rest of today's games):

• Clemson
• TCU
• Michigan or Ohio State
• Georgia or Tennessee

Syracuse and Mississippi also got their first loss today but those don't matter as they don't change the overall maximum of four 13-0 teams. Since Michigan plays Ohio State and Georgia plays Tennessee, there can only be one 13-0 team from four Power Five conferences, at most.

So ignore the All-State Playoff Predictor if it tells you that TCU has a 91% chance of making the Playoff if the Frogs go 13-0, or that a 13-0 Clemson has a 97% chance. Those numbers were low already given the tiny chance of 5 undefeated teams. They should all say >99%, or just say 100% because that's the reality. No 13-0 Power Five team is going to miss the Playoff.

 

2022 week 8 preview: Is Syracuse a contender or a spoiler if they beat Clemson?

Syracuse can make a big move up from #13 in our Projected Final Playoff standings—and become either a contender or a spoiler for the ACC's Playoff chances. #3 Clemson hosts the Orange, and while both teams are currently undefeated only Clemson is projected to finish that way and get a Playoff spot. If Syracuse pulls off the upset it would put the Orange in the running and hurt Clemson's chances a lot. Syracuse is a two-touchdown underdog but three of the last five meetings have been very close, including a win in 2017 and a 3-point loss last season.

The Tigers would probably still be favored to win out but not to make it to the ACC Championship Game; without a conference title, Clemson would probably be outside looking in at 11-1. Syracuse might be projected at 12-1 but that might not be enough. 

Let's break it down. Any 13-0 team from a power conference gets in 99.9% of the time; the only exception is if there are five, which can still happen, but almost certainly won't. A 13-0 Clemson makes it 100% of the time, a 13-0 Syracuse might only be left out if there were five 13-0 teams.

A 12-1 ACC champ Clemson makes it 95% of the time, while a 12-1 Syracuse makes it maybe 65% of the time. Despite having basically the same résumé, that's the reality. The Committee is not so unbiased as people think. 

At 11-1, Clemson is probably left out since there will be teams like Tennessee and Michigan also at 11-1 that have precedence. Syracuse would be even worse off—behind those teams and any others, like Mississippi, and even some projected 2-loss teams, possibly Alabama, Texas, and TCU. 

So the ACC would rather have Clemson win this game as the conference's chances of having a Playoff rep are much greater with the Tigers than any other team.

SportsRatings Projected Final CFP Committee Standings with Vegas line and next opponent

Rnk Team           Rec  Proj Line   This weekend
 1. Georgia        7-0  13-0  ---      idle
 2. Ohio State     6-0  13-0 -29.0  Iowa
 3. Clemson        7-0  13-0 -13.5  #13 Syracuse
 4. USC            6-1  12-1  ---      idle
 5. Tennessee      6-0  11-1 (-47)  Tenn-Martin
 6. Michigan       7-0  11-1  ---      idle
 7. Alabama        6-1  11-2 -21.0  Mississippi St
 8. Mississippi    7-0  11-1  +2.0  @ #25 LSU
 9. Texas          5-2  11-2  -6.5  @ Oklahoma St
10. TCU            6-0  11-2  -3.5  Kansas St
11. UCLA           6-0  10-2  +6.0  @ #15 Oregon
12. Penn State     5-1  10-2  -4.0  #23 Minnesota
13. Syracuse       6-0  10-2 +13.5  @ #3 Clemson
14. Utah           5-2  10-2  ---      idle
15. Oregon         5-1  10-3  -6.0  #11 UCLA
16. Illinois       6-1  10-3  ---      idle
17. NC State       5-2   9-3  ---      idle
18. Wake Forest    5-1   9-3 -20.5  Boston College
19. UCF            5-1  12-1  -5.0  @ East Carolina
20. South Alabama  5-1  12-1  -3.0  Troy
21. UNC            6-1   9-4  ---      idle
22. Purdue         5-2   8-4  +2.5  @ Wisconsin
23. Minnesota      4-2   9-3  +4.0  @ #12 Penn St
24. Florida St     4-3   8-4  ---      idle
25. LSU            5-2   8-4  -2.0  #8 Mississippi

Beyond Clemson, #1 Georgia, #4 USC, and #6 Michigan are idle while #2 Ohio State is a 4-touchdown favorite to beat Iowa, #5 Tennessee faces FCS Tennessee-Martin, and #7 Alabama is a heavy home favorite vs. Mississippi State. 

So we have to scroll down to #8 Mississippi to find a worthy game, and the Rebels are actually slight underdogs to #25 LSU. The Tigers aren't realistic Playoff contenders so all this would do is put a huge dent in Ole Miss's hopes.

In the Big Twelve, #9 Texas and #10 TCU are not very heavy favorites over Oklahoma State and Kansas State respectively, so shakeups could occur there. TCU is at home so I'm a little surprised by that line, but not by the Texas road line.

#11 UCLA is a fair-sized underdog at #15 Oregon; that result wouldn't change our forecast much because it's one of two losses we see going forward for UCLA (the other: USC). A win by the Bruins would put them in the top 10 somewhere. #12 Penn State is only a 4 point favorite vs. #23 Minnesota, and our power rating has those teams even so the home field makes a difference. One thing: Penn State got rocked last week and might not have recovered. Undefeated teams that get crushed in their first loss often have a hangover. Being at home could help there, too.

Our two non-Power Five teams both might have their 12-1 dreams crushed this week if the oddsmakers are to be trusted. #19 UCF is only a 5 point favorite at East Carolina, and #20 South Alabama is just a 3 point favorite over Troy. Both seem strange to me, but especially the Troy line. South Alabama is playing at home, so Vegas is calling the teams essentially even. Or maybe the Jaguars don't get home field advantage?

And lastly (and least), #22 Purdue is an underdog at Wisconsin. Not too strange, as our projected expects the loss too. A win would improve Purdue's 8-4 projection but with two losses already they won't move up much from their current 0.2% odds of somehow making the Playoff.

With eight teams idle there might not be big moves this week, but there are a lot of teams that project at 8-4 that could move in if they get an upset or some of the lower echelon teams fall unexpectedly.

2022 post-week 7 Playoff picture: Tennessee surges but USC still in

Tennessee's upset of Alabama wasn't as outrageous as some are making it out to be, nor does it put the Vols on the fast-track to the Playoff. It sure improved their odds, however, while USC's loss to Utah obviously damaged theirs. We'll look at the teams in our latest projection in groups.

First Group: The Inside Track 

Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson are all in pole position for the Playoff due to their quality and/or their schedule. Georgia and Ohio State rank #2 and #1 in our power rating and can overcome stiff challenges from the likes of Alabama and Michigan. For #3 Clemson, who ranks just 11th, it's more about their easy schedule, and the fact that they've already cleared several hurdles (Wake Forest, NC State, FSU). Hence these teams have well above 50% chances in our book.

Second Group: On the Verge 

The last Playoff spot probably goes to one of the next four teams. USC didn't fall from #4 but did lose almost 25% of their chances, most of which went to Tennessee who is now roughly in the same situation as Michigan: both need to beat the 800-lb elephant in their division (Georgia or Ohio State) to make their conference final, which for the Volunteers would probably be a rematch with Alabama. A tougher road for Tennessee but a slightly better chance to make the Playoff if they end up 11-1. And of course don't count out the Tide, still rated as one of the best three teams; even an 11-2 Alabama has a decent Playoff shot, and they can still finish 12-1 which would be a practical guarantee. All four of these teams end up with solid shots at the Playoff but none is above 50%.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 7 (10/16)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %chg  Losses (actuals in bold)
 1   1. Georgia        7-0  13-0  76.0  +1.4  
 2   2. Ohio State     6-0  13-0  74.4  +1.4  
 3   3. Clemson        7-0  13-0  70.8  +1.3  
 4   4. USC            6-1  12-1  40.8 -23.1  @Utah 43-42
14   5. Tennessee      6-0  11-1  31.2 +26.2  @Georgia
 6   6. Michigan       7-0  11-1  25.7  +7.0  @OhioSt
 5   7. Alabama        6-1  11-2  18.1  -6.0  @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia
10   8. Mississippi    7-0  11-1  10.4  +1.5  Alabama
 9   9. Texas          5-2  11-2   9.8  +0.3  Alabama 20-19, TTech OT
11  10. TCU            6-0  11-2   9.3  +0.9  @Texas, =Texas
13  11. UCLA           6-0  10-2   6.6  +1.1  @Oregon, USC
12  12. Penn State     5-1  10-2   6.0  +0.0  @Michigan 41-17, OhioSt
16  13. Syracuse       6-0  10-2   5.5  +2.9  @Clemson, @Wake
24  14. Utah           5-2  10-2   4.9  +4.8  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32
 7  15. Oregon         5-1  10-3   3.3  -8.2  @Georgia 49-3, Utah, =USC
15  16. Illinois       6-1  10-3   2.7  -0.8  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
17  17. NC State       5-2   9-3   1.7  -0.4  @Clemson 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou
 8  18. Wake Forest    5-1   9-3   1.1  -8.9  Clemson OT, @Lou, @NCSt
18  19. UCF            5-1  12-1   0.5  -0.7  @Lou 20-14 
19  20. South Alabama  5-1  12-1   0.4  -0.3  @UCLA 32-31
new 21. UNC            6-1   9-4   0.3  +0.3  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, @NCst, =Clem
new 22. Purdue         5-2   8-4   0.2  +0.2  @PennSt 35-31, @Syr 32-29, @Wisc, @ILL
new 23. Minnesota      4-2   9-3   0.1  +0.1  Pur 20-10, @ILL 26-14, @PennSt
22  24. Florida St     4-3   8-4   0.1  -0.1  Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem 34-28, @Syr
new 25. LSU            5-2   8-4   0.1  +0.1  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Miss, Alabama

Dropped out: #20 Notre Dame (6-6), #21 BYU (6-6), #23 San Jose State (10-3), #25 Washington St (8-4)

Third Group: Unproven or already behind the 8-ball

Mississippi, Texas, TCU, UCLA, Penn State, Syracuse and Utah all have roadblocks or haven't proved they can clear all the remaining hurdles. Ole Miss isn't far from Tennessee's situation—but without the proven win over Alabama. TCU is likewise undefeated but may have to top Texas twice to insure a Playoff bid. UCLA (Strength: #29) has Oregon and USC to deal with. And Syracuse faces both Clemson and Wake Forest on the road.

Those teams are all unbeaten, while Texas already has two losses weighing them down, as does Utah, and Penn State lost 41-17 at Michigan. The reasons are different but every team in this group has roughly a 5-10% chance of things going their way and making the Playoff.

Fourth Group: The Long Shots

Oregon, Illinois, NC State, and Wake Forest have meager odds according to our system, with each team projected to finish with three losses. Most of them control their destiny to some extent—for each, winning out would put them within striking distance of the Playoff at least—but none rank high enough in Strength relative to their upcoming schedule to give a lot of confidence that they can pull it off. All are under 5% odds, some just over 1%.

Fifth Group: The No-hopers

Let's face it, beyond here it would take extraordinary events to put any of these teams in the Playoff. But all have a great chance to finish in the top 25, even if in the lower rungs. UCF and South Alabama look like the best chance for a New Year's Day team from the Group of Five, with UCF's name and schedule giving them a big edge while the Jaguar's hopes live and die with UCLA.

The last 5 teams all project to 3 or 4 losses, and most already have two losses which has been prohibitive for Playoff entry so far. FSU still somehow manages a 0.1% odds despite having THREE losses. The exception here is North Carolina, who is 6-1 but only #57 in Strength so we don't expect their good record to last. But the Tar Heels are the only one in the No-Hope group that still has theoretical hope. The bottom of this list is becoming less about Playoff hope and more about top 25 bragging rights.

Sixth Group: The Dropouts

Only four teams fell out this week. Notre Dame and BYU were the great hopes of the Independents this season but both are looking like pedestrian 6-6 teams now. San Jose State lost and now can't finish the 12-1 they'd need to make the Committee's top 25. And Washington State fell to Oregon State and now looks like an 8-4 team, and not one with a great résumé.

When the Playoff expands, 1-loss teams might pray they don't make their conference championship game

When the Playoff expands to 12 teams, the last thing you want to be is an 11-1 team stuck in a conference championship game. At 11-1 in a Power Five conference you're guaranteed a spot in a 12-team Playoff, but at 11-2? It might be close. You'll probably still make it—unless your conference has other 11-1 teams waiting in the wings for a bid, too.

The Michigans, Tennessees, and Mississippis of the world will suddenly be happy at 11-1 and glad that someone on the other side of Ohio State and Alabama has to take the risk.

And with the SEC and Big Ten expanding into super-conferences, there might be several 1-loss teams left out of the conference title games...and they'll say, that's perfectly fine.

Sure, winning the conference title game means you're in (the six top ranked conference winners get bids), so if you have 2 losses you probably need the boost. And if you're undefeated, you probably get in anyway win or lose. But at 11-1, it's best not to risk it if you're ranked high.

Makes me wonder if there's an opt-out?

The new 2022 Pac-12 tiebreaker is horrible

I've been looking at the tiebreaker to determine the Pac-12 championship game participants, and boy is it lousy. Based on what I think the current outcome of the season will be, it eliminates a team that is 2-0 against the three "tied" teams right off the bat.

As you may or may not know, the Pac-12 championship game this year will not be between the division winners, but the two teams out of all twelve that have the best conference record. That of course could end up with a tie, that is solved using the Pac-12 tiebreaker.

Follow this scenario: Utah and USC win out. Oregon loses only to Utah. UCLA therefore loses to Oregon and USC. Meaning:

• Utah loses to UCLA, beats USC, Oregon
• USC loses to Utah, beats UCLA
• Oregon loses to Utah, beats UCLA
• UCLA beats Utah, loses to Oregon, USC

The games in bold have already happened, the rest are part of this hypothetical scenario.

The standings if this happens, with all conference teams grouped together:

 1. Utah 8-1
 [tie] USC 8-1
 [tie] Oregon 8-1
 4. UCLA 7-2
 5. etc.

Utah, USC, and Oregon are all 8-1 and we need to apply a tiebreaker. So we look at the rules for "Multiple-Team Ties" and apply this rule:

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams).

Ok, so Utah is 2-0 against the other teams, USC is 0-1, and Oregon is 0-1, since USC and Oregon didn't play.

Pretty simple, right? Utah is in and now we need to determine whether USC or Oregon gets in. BUT WAIT. We didn't read all of rule 1:

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 2. 

It looks like we don't use head-to-head when "not every tied team has played each other" which is the case here. So instead of picking Utah, we go to step 2

2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie) 

Immediately you can see the problem. Both Oregon and USC beat UCLA, but Oregon lost to them. So among their 6 common opponents, USC is 6-0, Oregon is 6-0, and Utah is 5-1. That means Utah, who beat both the other teams, is odd man out and USC will face Oregon by these rules.

Most of the time when three teams are tied with one loss they are all 1-1 against the others so the rule is moot anyway. But in the case above, which could easily happen, a clear #1 team is left out of the championship game.

They probably made the "opt out" rule for the case where two teams played each other and one didn't, so one is 1-0, the other 0-1, and the last team is 0-0, and didn't want that to determine who gets in. They didn't think about the 2-0, 0-1, 0-1 scenario obviously.

There are a lot of ways for the season to play out but they ought to think about fixing this rule for the future, unless they want the team that's defeated both the other participants to be left out.

There's a chance that they didn't write out the rule correctly, but as written it's pretty clear, and it means that if you beat the best teams but lose to a slightly lesser team, you're out of luck in the Pac-12 as far as the championship game is concerned. Don't worry though, what harm could it do? Other than potentially eliminating a Playoff slot for the conference, at least before the Playoff is expanded to 12 teams.

 

 

 

2022 Week 7 Preview: Five big games featuring Clemson, USC, Alabama, and Michigan

Now that the conference season is in full swing, the games are heating up. This week there are FIVE games where both teams are ranked in our Projected Final Committee Top 25. In three more games, our ranked team is the betting underdog. And then there's yet another game game featuring two undefeated teams (one unranked in our Final 25).

The intra-Final 25 games feature four teams in our top six: #3 Clemson, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, and #6 Michigan. All four are currently 6-0 and are projected to finish undefeated or with a single loss. Three of the four are narrow favorites while one is actually an underdog!

• #3 Clemson at #22 Florida State: A loss by the Tigers wouldn't keep them out of the ACC title game and they could still finish 12-1. But that might not be good enough if the SEC title game is a close affair.
• #4 USC at #24 Utah: With a loss here the Trojans would no longer control their own destiny to a Pac-12 title, and as mentioned above a 12-1 Pac-12 champ isn't guaranteed a top four Playoff finish. A critical game for USC and they're actually the betting underdog. We had them losing this game until last weekend's results came in.
• #5 Alabama at #14 Tennessee: The Tide can lose this game and still control their destiny to the Playoff; in fact, so can Tennessee. A 12-1 SEC champ makes the Playoff 100% of the time. The Georgia game is the one the Vols have to win, and 'Bama too (assuming they meet the Bulldogs in the SEC championship)
• #6 Michigan vs #12 Penn State: A must-win for Penn State, Michigan could drop this game and most likely make the Big Ten title game by beating Ohio State. This assumes the Buckeyes will beat the Nittany Lions though. Basically if Penn State wins they're on par with Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East and have to be considered in future equations.

SportsRatings Projected Final CFP Committee Top 25: post-week 7 with Line and Opponent

Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  Line  This week
 1. Georgia         6-0  13-0 -38.0   Vanderbilt 
 2. Ohio State      6-0  13-0   ---    idle       
 3. Clemson         6-0  13-0  -3.5 @ #22 FSU       
 4. USC             6-0  13-0  +3.5 @ #24 Utah       
 5. Alabama         6-0  12-1  -7.5 @ #14 Tennessee       
 6. Michigan        6-0  11-1  -7.0   #12 Penn St      
 7. Oregon          5-1  11-2   ---    idle       
 8. Wake Forest     5-1  11-1   ---    idle          
 9. Texas           4-2  11-2 -16.5   Iowa State      
10. Mississippi     6-0  11-1 -15.0   Auburn       
11. TCU             5-0  11-2  -4.0   Oklahoma St       
12. Penn State      5-0  10-2  +7.0 @ #6 Michigan       
13. UCLA            6-0  10-2   ---    idle      
14. Tennessee       5-0  10-2  +7.5   #5 Alabama       
15. Illinois        5-1  10-3  +6.5   Minnesota      
16. Syracuse        5-0   9-3  -3.5   #17 NC State       
17. NC State        5-1   9-3  +3.5 @ #16 Syracuse       
18. UCF             4-1  12-1 -23.0   Temple        
19. South Alabama   4-1  12-1 -17.0   UL-Monroe        
20. Notre Dame      3-2   8-4 -17.0   Stanford       
21. BYU             4-2  10-2  +1.5   Arkansas        
22. FSU             4-2   8-4  +3.5   #3 Clemson       
23. San Jose St     4-1  12-1  -8.5 @ Fresno St       
24. Utah            4-2   8-4  -3.5   #4 USC       
25. Washington St   4-2   9-3  +3.5 @ Oregon St     

The other intra-top 25 game doesn't have as big of repercussions: #16 Syracuse hosts #17 NC State. Like Vegas we have the Orange here, and if they lose then their stay in the top 25 might be short. NC State been projected as lofty as 11-1 at times and can still achieve that. Syracuse technically could achieve 13-0 but we don't think that's realistic at this juncture. A big win by the Orange might change the computer's mind though.

The three other "ranked" teams that are Vegas underdogs are as follows:

• #15 Illinois vs. Minnesota (4-1): This one's a mystery as Illinois has really played well lately (the 9-6 Iowa win was between two of the nation's best defenses) while Minnesota laid an egg at home vs. Purdue prior to a bye week. Other than that the Gophers looked great, so the oddsmakers apparently consider that result a fluke. In our current Bayesian/Strength combo ratings Minnesota is still ahead in the Bayesian portion, but Strength is getting to be more accurate week by week and the game is at Illinois. Minnesota is projected to be 8-4 right now so they'll get back in the Final 25 if they get the win.
• #21 BYU vs. Arkansas (3-3): BYU is another home underdog and we agree the game should be close; BYU needed overtime to beat Baylor and Arkansas is probably comparable. The Razorbacks have lost three in a row now and might not be at their best mentally to head off to Provo for a non-conference game. 
• #25 Washington State at Oregon State: The Cougars and Beavers are both 4-2 but again, we favor the home team. The oddsmakers do not, picking Oregon State by about a field goal. Neither team has much of a shot at the Playoff if any, but there's Projected Top 25 bragging rights at stake!

And finally, another big game that's tagged to be pretty close: #11 TCU vs. Oklahoma State. Both teams are 5-0 but only the Horned Frogs make our projected Top 25. The Cowboys are slated to finish 8-4 at this point, but beating TCU would go a long way in keeping their dreams alive, and most importantly, get them back in our projection.

 

2022 Projected Final Playoff Standings, week 6: Back to Four 13-0 teams

Projecting four 13-0 teams (game-by-game, obviously) at the beginning of the season is pretty common. As losses mount fewer teams look to be favored in every game, but now after week six that's where our projection is: four Power Five conference champs at 13-0.

• Georgia, up from #5, replacing Alabama at #1 as the winner of the SEC title game. This could change next week so stay alert!
• Ohio State, holding at #2, the clear Big Ten winner
• Clemson, 13-0 for the first time: they finally win at Notre Dame in their Nov. 5 matchup
• USC, also newly 13-0 now that they outclass Utah on the road and Oregon on a neutral field

That puts Alabama, the #2 team in our source power rating, out of the Playoff this week. Georgia's partial home field advantage in the SEC title game gives the Bulldogs the nod. The Tide keep having close calls that are causing doubt that they can run the table, but in reality they just need one team to stumble above them. Four 13-0 teams is probably not going to last.

Texas is another big mover as the Longhorns look like they can beat TCU anywhere. The Horned Frogs drop to #11 from #3 but the 2nd meeting—the Big Twelve Playoff game—is really tight and could change quickly. Texas has a pretty high probability (9.3%) to become the first 2-loss team to make the Playoff but even at 11-2 they'd need some of those 13-0 teams to lose (and having Alabama go 13-0, not Georgia, would help)

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 6 (10/9)

LW  Rnk Team            Rec  Proj %Odds   %chg  Losses (actuals in bold)
 5   1. Georgia         6-0  13-0  74.5  +38.7  
 2   2. Ohio State      6-0  13-0  73.0   -2.8  
 4   3. Clemson         6-0  13-0  69.5  +26.2  
 8   4. USC             6-0  13-0  64.0  +53.3  
 1   5. Alabama         6-0  12-1  24.2  -53.1  =Georgia
 6   6. Michigan        6-0  11-1  18.6   +3.0  @OhioSt
11   7. Oregon          5-1  11-2  11.5   +4.5  @Georgia 49-3, =USC
12   8. Wake Forest     5-1  11-1   9.9   +3.4  @Clemson OT
23   9. Texas           4-2  11-2   9.4   +9.1  Alabama 20-19, TTech OT
13  10. Mississippi     6-0  11-1   8.9   +2.9  Alabama
 3  11. TCU             5-0  11-2   8.4  -59.5  @Texas, =Texas
10  12. Penn State      5-0  10-2   6.0   -1.4  @Michigan, OhioSt
19  13. UCLA            6-0  10-2   5.5   +3.4  @Oregon, USC
17  14. Tennessee       5-0  10-2   5.0   +2.0  Alabama, @Georgia
15  15. Illinois        5-1  10-3   3.5   -0.4  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
new 16. Syracuse        5-0   9-3   2.6   +2.6  @Clemson, NotreDame, @Wake 
 9  17. NC State        5-1   9-3   2.0   -8.1  @Clemson 30-20, @Syr, Wake
new 18. UCF             4-1  12-1   1.3   +1.3  Louisville 20-14
22  19. South Alabama   4-1  12-1   0.8   +0.2  @UCLA 32-31
18  20. Notre Dame      3-2   8-4   0.4   -2.1  @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Clem, @USC
new 21. BYU             4-2  10-2   0.3   +0.3  @Oregon 41-20, =Notre 28-20
new 22. FSU             4-2   8-4   0.2   +0.2  Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem, Syr
new 23. San Jose St     4-1  12-1   0.2   +0.2  @Auburn 24-16
 7  24. Utah            4-2   8-4   0.1  -12.0  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, USC, @Ore
new 25. Washington St   4-2   9-3   0.1   +0.1  Oregon 44-41, @USC 30-14, Utah

Dropped out: #14 Washington (8-4), #16 LSU (7-5), #20 Maryland (8-4), #21 Minnesota (8-4), #24 Kansas State (8-4), #25 Oklahoma (3-9)

Oregon, still the projected Pac-12 runner-up, moves up as their only 2 losses are from undefeated Playoff teams and they have three "wins" over our Committee Top 25. Thus they're in position to take a spot with a win over USC, but that huge Georgia loss still makes a bit of a ceiling. Wake Forest crushed Army 45-10 and now looks like a team that could finish 11-1 and miss out on their conference title, much like Mississippi at #10, who might only lose to Alabama. 

The top newcomer this week is Syracuse, who already has a win over Purdue (another new entry) and might get another solid win over NC State. The Orange are 5-0 but have yet to face Wake and Clemson. This résumé puts them just behind Penn State, UCLA, and Tennessee, who all pan out at 10-2 with losses to the very top teams only but big wins are few and far between. For example the Bruins dispatched Washington and Utah in consecutive weeks but the Huskies are out of the Top 25 now and Utah plummets to #24, leaving #19 South Alabama as their top win. If UCLA can beat Oregon and/or USC they'll move up, and the Jaguars will draft up with them to a lesser extent.

Apart from Washington, now projected at 8-4, five other teams dropped out: LSU was crushed by Tennessee and now looks like a 7-5 team; Maryland lost at home to Purdue; Minnesota was idle but now projects to 8-4; Kansas State's 10-9 win over Iowa State reduced their projection to 8-4 and Oklahoma was of course demolished and embarrassed 49-0 by Texas, making them the underdog in every single game the rest of the way! The Big Twelve is a bad conference to get underwater in, there's lots of parity and the Sooners have to play the easier teams on the road, just enough to turn them into losses. No, they probably won't go 3-9 but any wins they get are now considered upsets. 

Notre Dame beat BYU but interestingly the Irish a few spots while BYU came back in. Strange, yes, but the 28-20 loss was expected for BYU and actually improved their rating a bit, enough to put them past Arkansas who got crushed 40-17 by Mississippi State this weekend. Now projected at 10-2 the Cougars will remain as long as they win, but both those losses are already real so they won't be threatening to make a run for the top four spots. Notre Dame looked to be 9-3 with only a future loss to USC, but after last week's action Clemson is also a loss; they fall to 8-4 but the wins over BYU and Syracuse keep them on the Committee radar.

New Group of Five Champs: UCF clubbed SMU 41-19 on Wednesday which not only put the Knights in the projected AAC championship, but made them the favorite over Cincinnati. If UCF can go 12-1 they'll definitely finish in the Committee Top 25, but well short of the top four barring real insanity. If they'd beaten Louisville they'd still be a long shot. San Jose State is new on the projection at 12-1 as Mountain West champs, but with their terrible SOS #23 might be the best they can do. The loss to Auburn is looking worse by the day, too. In addition to BYU, two more teams also entered the rankings despite losing this weekend: Florida State got back on the list with four losses to ACC foes, two of which have already occurred. Washington State also joined at #24 with two losses already, but a projected 9-3 record which is getting rarer by the week, as three ranked teams now have projected 8-4 records.

2022 Week 6 Bayesian/Strength rankings

Bayesian/Strength update of pre-season ratings based on results through 10/08/2022 (week 6). Projected records based on resultant ratings.

Ratings are 25% Bayesian (update of pre-season ratings) and 75% Strength ratings (no pre-season bias). This is the last rating we will publish that includes any pre-season bias.

Rnk  Team                   Rating   Bayes  Str   Rec   Proj
  1. Ohio State              36.77     1     2    6-0   12-0  
  2. Alabama                 36.30     2     1    6-0   12-0  
  3. Georgia                 33.77     3     3    6-0   12-0  
  4. Texas                   30.22     4     4    4-2   10-2  
  5. Tennessee               25.97     5     5    5-0   10-2  
  6. Michigan                25.76     6     6    6-0   11-1  
  7. TCU                     24.02    11     7    5-0   11-1  
  8. Mississippi St          21.71     9     9    5-1    8-4  
  9. Clemson                 21.54    10     8    6-0   12-0  
 10. Mississippi             20.07    15    10    6-0   11-1  
 11. Southern Cal            19.78    19    11    6-0   12-0  
 12. Penn State              18.59    18    13    5-0   10-2  
 13. Oregon                  18.17     7    20    5-1   11-1  
 14. Illinois                17.90    28    12    5-1   10-2  
 15. Kansas St               17.80    21    17    5-1    8-4  
 16. Wake Forest             17.72    20    18    5-1   11-1  
 17. Maryland                16.94    25    19    4-2    7-5  
 18. Minnesota               16.92    12    23    4-1    8-4  
 19. Oklahoma St             16.86    14    21    5-0    8-4  
 20. Notre Dame              16.52    13    24    3-2    8-4  
 21. Central Florida         16.51    39    16    4-1   11-1  
 22. Utah                    16.10     8    31    4-2    8-4  
 23. James Madison           15.66    53    14    5-0   11-0  
 24. Purdue                  15.55    16    28    4-2    8-4  
 25. Kansas                  15.28    55    15    5-1    8-4  
 26. Baylor                  14.85    23    26    3-2    7-5  
 27. Iowa St                 14.63    41    22    3-3    6-6  
 28. UCLA                    14.58    27    27    6-0   10-2  
 29. North Carolina St       14.17    22    32    5-1    9-3  
 30. LSU                     13.77    35    30    4-2    6-6  
 31. Texas A&M               13.61    17    39    3-3    8-4  
 32. Iowa                    13.48    30    33    3-3    6-6  
 33. Wisconsin               13.45    26    35    3-3    8-4  
 34. Florida St              12.98    24    38    4-2    8-4  
 35. SMU                     12.89    57    25    2-3    9-3  
 36. Washington              12.84    50    29    4-2    8-4  
 37. Syracuse                12.33    45    34    5-0    9-3  
 38. West Virginia           11.98    44    36    2-3    4-8  
 39. Washington St           11.84    46    37    4-2    9-3  
 40. Arkansas                11.35    37    41    3-3    6-6  
 41. Texas Tech              11.22    42    40    3-3    5-7  
 42. Louisville              10.37    34    45    3-3    4-8  
 43. Cincinnati              10.06    29    49    5-1    9-3  
 44. Kentucky                 9.84    38    47    4-2    6-6  
 45. Tulane                   9.36    56    43    5-1    8-4  
 46. Brigham Young            9.22    36    52    4-2   10-2  
 47. Oklahoma                 9.17    47    48    3-3    3-9  
 48. North Carolina           8.83    33    57    5-1    8-4  
 49. Alabama-Birmingham       8.74    62    44    3-2    8-4  
 50. Missouri                 8.61    49    51    2-4    6-6  
 51. South Carolina           8.52    40    56    4-2    6-6  
 52. Florida                  8.21    31    61    4-2    6-6  
 53. Pittsburgh               7.94    52    54    4-2    7-5  
 54. San Jose St              7.32    58    53    4-1   11-1  
 55. South Alabama            7.26    72    46    4-1   11-1  
 56. Duke                     7.13    84    42    4-2    8-4  
 57. Western Kentucky         6.57    69    55    3-3    9-4  
 58. Memphis                  6.44    75    50    4-2    6-6  
 59. Michigan St              6.24    43    64    2-4    4-8  
 60. Troy                     5.86    66    59    4-2    9-3  
 61. Marshall                 5.80    73    58    3-2    9-3  
 62. Houston                  5.78    68    60    3-3    7-5  
 63. East Carolina            5.18    67    62    3-3    6-6  
 64. California               5.03    61    63    3-2    5-7  
 65. Oregon St                4.83    32    73    4-2    7-5  
 66. Auburn                   4.68    54    67    3-3    4-8  
 67. Texas-San Antonio        4.59    59    66    4-2    9-3  
 68. Appalachian St           3.43    70    69    3-3    7-5  
 69. Liberty                  3.04    74    70    5-1    9-3  
 70. Miami FL                 2.96    51    75    2-3    5-7  
 71. Buffalo                  2.48    85    65    3-3    9-3  
 72. Navy                     2.25    83    68    2-3    4-8  
 73. Air Force                2.07    71    72    4-2   10-2  
 74. Stanford                 1.69    63    77    1-4    2-10 
 75. Coastal Carolina         1.00    90    71    6-0   10-2  
 76. Indiana                  0.79    79    74    3-3    4-8  
 77. Arizona St               0.67    60    80    2-4    4-8  
 78. Toledo                   0.60    65    79    4-2    9-3  
 79. Vanderbilt              -0.77    96    76    3-3    3-9  
 80. UNLV                    -2.33    92    81    4-2    8-4  
 81. Georgia Tech            -2.58    93    82    3-3    5-7  
 82. Virginia                -2.58    88    85    2-4    3-9  
 83. Boise St                -2.63    48    99    4-2    7-5  
 84. Southern Miss           -2.64    80    88    2-3    7-5  
 85. Arkansas St             -2.79   112    78    2-4    4-8  
 86. Louisiana-Lafayette     -3.00    91    86    2-3    5-7  
 87. Florida Atlantic        -3.00    97    83    2-4    5-7  
 88. Rice                    -3.09    98    84    3-2    6-6  
 89. Kent St                 -3.24    94    87    2-4    6-6  
 90. Arizona                 -3.40    77    91    3-3    3-9  
 91. Rutgers                 -3.47    78    90    3-3    3-9  
 92. Nebraska                -4.07    64   101    3-3    3-9  
 93. Georgia Southern        -4.48   101    89    3-3    3-9  
 94. Tulsa                   -5.11    95    94    2-4    4-8  
 95. Middle Tennessee St     -5.16   102    93    3-3    8-4  
 96. Wyoming                 -5.19   104    92    4-3    9-3  
 97. Miami OH                -5.80   105    95    3-3    8-4  
 98. Northwestern            -6.14   106    96    1-5    1-11 
 99. Georgia St              -6.20    81   103    2-4    4-8  
100. North Texas             -6.47   103    97    3-3    6-6  
101. Old Dominion            -6.50   100    98    2-3    3-9  
102. Utah St                 -6.60    99   100    2-4    5-7  
103. Virginia Tech           -7.49    86   105    2-4    2-10 
104. Central Michigan        -7.92    113  102    1-5    4-8  
105. Ohio U.                 -8.18    114  104    3-3    7-5  
106. South Florida           -8.91    87   110    1-5    1-11 
107. Eastern Michigan        -8.97   108   108    4-2    8-4  
108. Northern Illinois       -9.23   107   109    1-5    5-7  
109. Boston College          -9.40    82   114    2-4    3-9  
110. Army                    -9.48    89   112    1-4    5-7  
111. Fresno St              -10.06    76   117    1-4    3-9  
112. Louisiana Tech         -10.19   109   111    2-3    4-8  
113. Louisiana-Monroe       -10.93   124   107    2-4    3-9  
114. Temple                 -11.19   125   106    2-3    3-9  
115. Texas St-San Marcos    -11.89   119   113    3-3    3-9  
116. Ball St                -12.76   115   118    4-2    5-7  
117. Bowling Green          -13.12   122   116    2-4    3-9  
118. Nevada                 -13.23   123   115    2-4    5-7  
119. New Mexico             -13.54   116   119    2-4    5-7  
120. San Diego St           -15.01   110   121    3-3    3-9  
121. Colorado St            -15.11   121   120    1-4    3-9  
122. UTEP                   -15.46   111   122    3-4    4-8  
123. Western Michigan       -17.17   117   125    1-5    1-11 
124. Colorado               -17.25   118   124    0-5    0-12 
125. Connecticut            -17.50   120   123    3-4    4-8  
126. UNC-Charlotte          -20.44   126   126    1-5    2-10 
127. Akron                  -23.08   127   127    1-5    1-11 
128. Massachusetts          -25.03   128   128    1-5    2-10 
129. New Mexico St          -29.80   130   129    1-5    2-10 
130. Hawai`i                -29.96   129   130    1-5    1-12 
131. Florida Int'l          -38.78   131   131    2-3    2-10 

 

Texas, Tennessee win big and improve stock

Mid-Saturday breakdown

Tennessee crushed LSU 40-13 and Texas absolutely obliterated Oklahoma 49-0, improving both teams' stock in the Playoff race.

The Volunteers entered the weekend #17, projected at 9-3—with one of those losses coming at #16 LSU. But it looked like a close loss, giving Tennessee hope. As it turned out the game was not close at all as the Vols stormed to a 23-7 halftime lead and coasted to win 40-13.

Now Tennessee looks to be 10-2, and if they continue to play like this we can talk about possibilities for the Georgia and Alabama games, the SEC title, and the Playoff.

Texas came in #23, already holding 2 losses which makes Playoff hopes very slim (we gave them 0.3%). But if any team is going to do it, Texas is set up for a shot. They rank as one of the best teams in the nation, and that will only improve after their 49-0 destruction of Oklahoma. One of their two losses is to Alabama which probably doesn't hurt them much. The game vs. TCU is the big one, and now it looks like they can win that one at home. If they can win the Big Twelve—probably TCU again, but on a neutral field—they'd be 11-2 and within striking distance if a 2-loss team is all that's left.

TCU wins, and Cincinnati can get back on the board

TCU edged Kansas, 38-31, keeping the Horned Frogs 5-0 and still in line for a Big Twelve championship—if they can hold off a surging Texas. We'll have to see what our power ratings look like to know who is favored in the game at Texas, and in a likely rematch in the Big Twelve championship. Projected at 13-0 entering the week it's likely they'll be 12-1 or even 11-2, through no fault of their own based on Texas' performance.

Cincinnati is behind 17-14 at home against South Florida. Assuming they can turn that around, the Bearcats might be projected at 12-1 again, which would put them back in our projected Committee Top 25. Entering this weekend they were seen as 10-3, with two losses to SMU. But the Mustangs were blitzed 41-19 on Wednesday which probably tilts the future games to Cincy—again, assuming they can turn the USF game around.

Another Group of Five team looking to finish in the top 25 is San José State. The Spartans crushed UNLV 40-7, and with their remaining schedule very friendly they're in the mix for a New Year's Day bowl. 

To do that they'd have to hope Cincy falters, as last year's Playoff team would finish in front if both are 12-1. Another strong contender is South Alabama, who has lost only to UCLA this year.

2022 Week 6 Preview: TCU and Kansas take center stage

Normally at this time of the year, a huge Big Twelve confrontation is the most important game of the week, and this year is no exception. Except that instead of the Red River Rivalry (nee Shootout), it's undefeated TCU vs. undefeated Kansas that the nation is focused on.

TCU has won us over in just four games and is favored to go 13-0 and make the Playoff. Crazy? We'll see if they last up at those heights. Kansas is 5-0 but we're not sold on them yet as anything other than a 6-6 bowl team. That could change in Lawrence; the Horned Frogs are just a touchdown favorite but should win by double digits if they're to maintain their status in our projection.

The "other" Big Twelve game is between #23 Texas and #25 Oklahoma; both have two losses and only a very small shot at the Playoff because of that. Neither is out of the Big Twelve race, however, especially Texas who has a loss to Alabama on the books. #24 Kansas State is also in the hunt and just a tiny favorite to beat Iowa State on the road.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff standings, with projected record, Line, and this week's opponent:

Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  Line  This week
 1. Alabama         5-0  13-0 -24.0  Texas A&M 
 2. Ohio State      5-0  13-0 -26.5  @ Michigan St
 3. TCU             4-0  13-0  -7.0  @ Kansas (5-0)
 4. Clemson         5-0  12-1 -20.5  @ Boston College
 5. Georgia         5-0  12-1 -30.0  @ Auburn
 6. Michigan        5-0  11-1 -21.0  @ Indiana
 7. Utah            4-1  11-2  -4.5  @ #19 UCLA
 8. USC             5-0  11-1 -13.0  Washington St
 9. NC State        4-1  11-1  -3.5  FSU
10. Penn State      5-0  10-2   ---     idle
11. Oregon          4-1  11-2 -13.0  @ Arizona
12. Wake Forest     4-1  10-2 -16.5  Army
13. Mississippi     5-0  10-2 -18.0  @ Vanderbilt
14. Washington      4-1  10-2 -14.0  ASU
15. Illinois        4-1  10-3  -3.5  Iowa
16. LSU             4-1   9-3  +3.0  #17 Tennessee
17. Tennessee       4-0   9-3  -3.0  @ #16 LSU
18. Notre Dame      2-2   9-3  -3.5  =BYU
19. UCLA            5-0   9-3  +4.5  #7 Utah
20. Maryland        4-1   9-3  -3.0  Purdue
21. Minnesota       4-1   9-3   ---     idle
22. South Alabama   4-1  12-1   ---     idle
23. Texas           3-2   9-4  -7.0  =#25 Oklahoma
24. Kansas St       4-1   9-3  -2.0  @ Iowa St
25. Oklahoma        3-2   9-3  +7.0  =#23 Texas

The top game between two ranked teams (in our Playoff projections) is between #7 Utah and #19 UCLA. With UCLA 5-0 it might be better for the Pac-12 if the Bruins come out on top. It would also be better for South Alabama's New Year's Six chances. #8 USC, #11 Oregon, and #14 Washington are all double-digit favorites in their contests in the still-wide-open Pac-12

The only other intra-top 25 game is in the SEC, with #16 LSU the underdog vs. #17 Tennessee. In our projection LSU is Tennessee's 3rd loss despite Tennessee being #7 and LSU #16 in the referenced power rating. It's a tight game, tilting only to LSU due to home field advantage, and the Vols could regain their top 10 status with a win. #1 Alabama and #5 Georgia are huge favorites in their SEC contests, as is #13 Mississippi. 

Can FSU make a comeback? A few weeks ago FSU suddenly stormed our rankings with a 12-1 projection...then lost to Wake Forest. Beating #9 NC State could put them back on the map, in a more realistic space. It would also destroy the Wolfpack's Playoff hopes. Currently #4 Clemson is picked to just barely make the Playoff at 12-1 and Boston College isn't supposed to offer too much resistance this week. Nor is #12 Wake Forest supposed to have much trouble with Army, and don't expect another shootout like last year's 70-56. We project a 42-20 win for the Deacs, pretty close to the 65.5 over/under.

The Big Ten has a couple of interesting games. Interesting on paper. Iowa at #15 Illinois will test the Illini's sudden viability as a contender. These teams both have top five defenses, so it could be one of the more boring games you've seen all year. Illinois' offense is stagnant while Iowa's is non-existant. Illinois is just a 3 1/2 point favorite but they have to win by a couple of touchdowns to keep their rating. A shutout wouldn't shock us based on the Illinois defense and Iowa offense, but we've seen a lot of new-kids-in-town get shot down by an upset in recent weeks, so Illinois (and TCU) are on upset alert. #20 Maryland has a tougher test, we think, hosting Purdue. This one our computer agrees with the spread on, but my hunch is Purdue hands Maryland another loss.

And finally, #18 Notre Dame vs. BYU. This game was on our radar from the start but has been greatly diminished in importance week by week. Now it's the final nail for either team's Playoff hopes, not that either in in good position right now. The Irish have 2 losses, which in the Playoff's short history means they're out, and BYU has one bad loss which has been prohibitive for non-Power-Five schools. We're not even sure which outcome makes things more interesting. Should be a good game, though.

2022 Projected Final Playoff Standings, week 5: Shake-up with TCU, Alabama, Clemson gaining, Oklahoma, Georgia, Oregon falling

Every week looks like a do-over now: last week's breakout stars, Florida State and Minnesota, both bit the dust while Clemson rebounded and Alabama replaced Georgia at the top of the list. Whew.

First, the final four: These are the spots that count, and Georgia's close call at Missouri demoted them to #3 in our power rating, which made them the loser of the SEC championship game to new #1 Alabama. With Ohio State holding at #2 and a super-charged TCU at #3, the final spot comes down to the 12-1 Bulldogs and a 12-1 ACC champ Clemson. The latter probably gets the nod due to the conference championship. Last year Georgia was in the same position—12-1 with no conference title—but they were considered the best team; in this scenario they won't be.

Big news in the Big 12: TCU was a mild-mannered and mysterious 3-0 team last week at #22 before they crushed former #4 Oklahoma, sending the Sooners sprawling to #25. As we've mentioned, the Big Twelve has a glut of "good" to "very good" teams, and any "great" team can run the table—but they have to be very consistent. Oklahoma looked like that team but wasn't. Now TCU looks like that team—but after only 3 games vs. FBS competition. Another Big 12 game that upset things was Oklahoma State's win over Baylor, which knocked the Bears off the chart and down from 9-3 to 4-8! Three 1-point wins turned into losses for Baylor, so they can still turn things around but it's looking like they won't see the Committee's top 25.

SportsRatings Projected Final Standings for the College Football Playoff: post-week 5 (10/2/2022)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj  %Odds  %chg  Losses (actuals in bold)
 3   1. Alabama        5-0  13-0  77.3  +26.6 
 2   2. Ohio State     5-0  13-0  75.8   +0.1 
22   3. TCU            4-0  13-0  67.9  +67.1 
12   4. Clemson        5-0  12-1  43.3  +36.7  @NotreDame
 1   5. Georgia        5-0  12-1  35.8  -41.3  Alabama
 7   6. Michigan       5-0  11-1  15.6   +3.6  =OhioSt
13   7. Utah           4-1  11-2  12.1   +6.0  @FLA 29-26, @Oregon
 9   8. USC            5-0  11-1  10.6   +0.5  @Utah
18   9. NC State       4-1  11-1  10.2   +7.3  @Clemson 30-20
14  10. Penn State     5-0  10-2   7.5   +2.9  @Michigan, OhioSt
 5  11. Oregon         4-1  11-2   7.0  -30.9  @Georgia 49-3, =Utah
new 12. Wake Forest    4-1  10-2   6.5   +6.5  Clemson OT, @NCstate
new 13. Mississippi    5-0  10-2   6.0   +6.0  @LSU, Alabama
11  14. Washington     4-1  10-2   5.6   -1.5  @UCLA 40-32, @Oregon
new 15. Illinois       4-1  10-3   4.0   +4.0  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
new 16. LSU            4-1   9-3   3.5   +3.5  FSU 24-23, Alabama, @Ark
10  17. Tennessee      4-0   9-3   3.0   -4.4  @LSU, Alabama, @Georgia
15  18. Notre Dame     2-2   9-3   2.5   -1.6  @OhioSt 21-10, Marsh 26-21, @USC
new 19. UCLA           5-0   9-3   2.1   +2.1  Utah, @Oregon, USC
new 20. Maryland       4-1   9-3   1.6   +1.6  @Mich 34-27, @PennSt, OhioSt
 8  21. Minnesota      4-1   9-3   1.1   -9.5  @Purd 20-10, @Illinois, @PennSt
25  22. South Alabama  4-1  12-1   0.6   +0.4  @UCLA 32-31
new 23. Texas          3-2   9-4   0.3   +0.3  Alabama 20-19, TTech OT, TCU, =TCU
23  24. Kansas St      4-1   9-3   0.2   -0.4  Tulane 17-10, @TCU, Texas
 4  25. Oklahoma       3-2   9-3   0.1  -45.2  KState 41-34, @TCU 55-24, =Texas

Dropped out: #6 Florida St (8-4), #16 BYU (9-3), #17 Pittsburgh (6-6), #19 Texas A&M (7-5), #20 Cincinnati (10-3), #21 Baylor (4-8), #24 Wisconsin (4-8)

ACC shakeup: Clemson was #12 last week, projected to be 10-2 and to beat NC State. They won, 30-20, which doesn't seem like it should elevate the Tigers back into the Playoff picture but it did—mainly because Florida State lost to Wake Forest, knocking the Seminoles right back down to 8-4 and off the charts completely. That game put the Deacons in at #12 and gave an extra future win to the Tigers who now only have a projected loss to Notre Dame that just won't go away. It's been there since the pre-season projections—but Clemson's back in the top four regardless. And despite losing, NC State also benefitted from Wake's win as they now "beat" FSU and are back to an 11-1 projection, up 9 spots to #9. Another ACC team didn't benefit from last week's action: Pittsburgh, formerly #17 at 10-2 and making the ACC championship game, fell to Georgia Tech and now projects to a woeful 6-6.

Business as usual in the Big Ten, but....Minnesota was another darling of last week's projection, and that one looked a lot more solid than FSU did but the Gophers lost at Purdue 20-10 and fell from #8 to #21. Instead of running the table and making the Big Ten title game, they look to be a pedestrian 9-3. Illinois was the big winner, crushing Wisconsin 34-10 and knocking the Badgers out of the rankings (and to a 4-8 finish? Wow). Now the #15 Illini are the team to beat in the Big Ten West, and we have them losing only twice more, once in the Big Ten title game. New #20 Maryland is the latest team to get a boost from crushing Michigan State. The Big Ten East remained consistent, with #2 Ohio State, #6 Michigan, and #10 Penn State all winning and seeing their Playoff odds increase slightly.

Pac-12 still looking for a bid: Washington's loss to UCLA didn't hurt the Huskies as much as we would have thought, mostly because their was uncertainly that they could really go 11-1 and they were 3rd in line for the Pac-12 title game tiebreaker anyway. All it did was introduce another possible interloper in the Bruins, who will probably lose only to the top three teams in the conference. Who are the top three? In no order, Utah, Oregon, and USC. As Utah's power rating gets reconciled between the Bayesian and Strength versions they pick up a win in the Pac-12 title game over Oregon, but leaving the Pac-12 champ with 2 losses. USC may only have a loss to Utah but that keeps them out of the title game. And Oregon was never a great shot due to the huge Georgia loss. The only sure thing for the Pac-12 would be to have either USC or UCLA go undefeated; other than that and they may be left out again.

Some independent thoughts: Speaking of UCLA, the emergence of the Bruins lifted South Alabama to triple their odds of making the playoff (from 0.2% to 0.6%). It might seem impossible for a Sun Belt team to make the final four but the conference has played some good games this season. That said, even an undefeated Sun Belt team has long odds, and the Jaguars already have a loss. But a 1-point loss to UCLA suddenly looks good if UCLA goes 13-0. If that happens South Alabama will be...closer to the top four than we have them now, but probably still well outside it. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. For now it's safe to say the better UCLA does, the better it is for South Alabama, and vice versa.

But the Jaguars are doing better than BYU who fell out this week, the Cougars looking to be a dull 9-3, "sort-of" a Power Five team, sort-of not. That takes away one of Notre Dame's bigger future wins and the Irish slip a few spots, already dogged by two "real" losses. And after just getting past Tulsa, Cincinnati is back to losing twice to SMU in our book, dumping them from the projection, while SMU already has 2 losses and didn't make the cut. Check back next week as the two Cincy/SMU games tend to toggle. Another team that almost made the grade is San Jose State, which now has a decent chance to go 12-1 but not enough juice yet to make the grade in the top 25. As more Power Five teams take losses we will see the Spartans ranked if they continue winning and looking good.

Is there SEC outside Alabama and Georgia?  For those outside the top two, it's a long shot which is why no other SEC teams make the top 10. Mississippi roars back into the picture at #13. They were expected to beat Kentucky, and a lot more convincingly than they did, but Texas A&M's big loss to Mississippi State put the Aggies in arrears and now Ole Miss is sporting a solid 10-2 projection. They still "lose" the future class with LSU, who jumps in at #16 after picking up new "wins" over A&M and even #17 Tennessee, who drops 7 spots due to only being 9-3 now. The Volunteers didn't even play this week and they lost more than half their odds of making the Playoff! On the bright side, they're one of only 11 teams on the board who completely control their own destiny, having no actual losses.

Come back next week when the "final" order is scrambled up yet again!

2022 Week 5 Bayesian/Strength rankings

Bayesian/Strength update of pre-season ratings based on results through 10/02/2022 (week 5). Projected records based on resultant ratings.

Ratings are 50% Bayesian (update of pre-season ratings) and 50% Strength ratings (no pre-season bias)

Rnk  Team                   Rating   Bayes  Str   Rec   Proj
  1. Alabama                 38.85     2     1    5-0   12-0
  2. Ohio State              35.87     1     2    5-0   12-0
  3. Georgia                 32.53     3     3    5-0   12-0
  4. TCU                     26.55     7     4    4-0   12-0
  5. Michigan                25.58     4     7    5-0   11-1
  6. Texas                   22.20    12     5    3-2    9-3
  7. Tennessee               21.20     6    16    4-0    9-3
  8. Mississippi St          20.54    11     8    4-1    8-4
  9. Clemson                 20.04    13    11    5-0   11-1
 10. Utah                    19.53     5    32    4-1   10-2
 11. Mississippi             19.29    18    10    5-0   10-2
 12. Penn State              19.05    16    12    5-0   10-2
 13. Cincinnati              18.32    15    19    4-1   10-2
 14. Minnesota               18.27     9    25    4-1    9-3
 15. Kansas St               17.93    20    17    4-1    9-3
 16. LSU                     17.85    22    15    4-1    9-3
 17. Notre Dame              17.80    10    27    2-2    9-3
 18. Illinois                17.50    32     9    4-1   10-2
 19. Maryland                17.40    26    13    4-1    9-3
 20. Oklahoma                17.31    21    21    3-2    9-3
 21. Oregon                  17.21     8    31    4-1   11-1
 22. SMU                     16.82    47     6    2-2   10-2
 23. Southern Cal            16.58    23    22    5-0   11-1
 24. Wake Forest             16.16    31    20    4-1   10-2
 25. Washington              15.69    38    14    4-1   10-2
 26. Purdue                  15.03    17    34    3-2    8-4
 27. Kentucky                14.93    24    28    4-1    8-4
 28. Oklahoma St             14.90    14    39    4-0    7-5
 29. North Carolina St       14.66    19    33    4-1   11-1
 30. Arkansas                14.39    28    30    3-2    8-4
 31. UCLA                    13.00    44    24    5-0    9-3
 32. Baylor                  12.56    25    42    3-2    4-8
 33. Iowa St                 12.46    43    29    3-2    5-7
 34. Florida St              12.35    34    37    4-1    8-4
 35. Iowa                    12.35    33    38    3-2    6-6
 36. Kansas                  11.91    58    18    5-0    6-6
 37. Washington St           11.19    40    35    4-1    8-4
 38. Texas A&M               10.96    27    53    3-2    7-5
 39. Syracuse                10.65    46    36    5-0    8-4
 40. James Madison           10.23    59    26    4-0   10-1
 41. West Virginia           10.01    45    41    2-3    3-9
 42. Texas Tech               9.93    42    43    3-2    6-6
 43. North Carolina           9.88    35    54    4-1    8-4
 44. Missouri                 9.43    48    40    2-3    5-7
 45. Michigan St              9.23    39    55    2-3    5-7
 46. Wisconsin                8.98    41    52    2-3    4-8
 47. Central Florida          8.43    50    46    3-1    8-4
 48. Brigham Young            8.34    37    64    4-1    9-3
 49. Florida                  8.08    30    73    3-2    6-6
 50. Appalachian St           7.86    51    49    3-2    9-3
 51. Louisville               7.74    36    69    2-3    5-7
 52. Oregon St                7.39    29    80    3-2    7-5
 53. Pittsburgh               6.64    52    60    3-2    6-6
 54. Duke                     6.45    87    23    4-1    8-4
 55. California               6.25    60    50    3-2    5-7
 56. Auburn                   5.90    54    65    3-2    4-8
 57. Tulane                   5.24    63    57    4-1    8-4
 58. South Carolina           5.24    53    72    3-2    4-8
 59. Western Kentucky         5.23    66    47    3-2    9-4
 60. South Alabama            5.18    72    45    4-1   11-1
 61. Memphis                  4.79    77    44    4-1    7-5
 62. East Carolina            4.55    57    67    3-2    6-6
 63. Marshall                 4.50    73    48    3-2    9-3
 64. Alabama-Birmingham       4.50    71    51    2-2    8-4
 65. Air Force                4.45    61    63    4-1   10-2
 66. Troy                     4.05    68    56    3-2    9-3
 67. Miami FL                 3.86    49    83    2-2    7-5
 68. Texas-San Antonio        3.56    56    76    3-2    9-3
 69. Liberty                  3.48    67    59    4-1    9-3
 70. Houston                  2.91    65    70    2-3    6-6
 71. UNLV                     2.28    81    58    4-1    9-3
 72. Tulsa                    2.28    78    66    2-3    6-6
 73. San Jose St              2.10    75    68    3-1   11-1
 74. Stanford                 2.08    64    77    1-3    2-10
 75. Indiana                  1.04    85    62    3-2    4-8
 76. Nebraska                 0.58    62    89    2-3    3-9
 77. Arizona                  0.47    76    81    3-2    4-8
 78. Boise St                 0.18    55   100    3-2    8-4
 79. Vanderbilt              -0.07    96    61    3-2    3-9
 80. Northwestern            -0.61    91    71    1-4    1-11
 81. Virginia                -0.82    86    74    2-3    5-7
 82. Toledo                  -1.38    74    91    3-2    8-4
 83. Coastal Carolina        -1.39    92    75    5-0    8-4
 84. Southern Miss           -1.51    79    88    2-2    7-5
 85. Kent St                 -2.20    94    78    2-3    6-6
 86. Rutgers                 -3.04    83    93    3-2    3-9
 87. Northern Illinois       -3.48    95    85    1-4    8-4
 88. Arkansas St             -3.53   105    79    2-3    4-8
 89. Georgia Southern        -4.14   100    86    3-2    3-9
 90. Middle Tennessee St     -4.37    89    95    3-2    8-4
 91. Arizona St              -4.42    70   108    1-4    2-10
 92. Miami OH                -4.61   106    84    2-3    8-4
 93. Buffalo                 -4.83   110    82    2-3    8-4
 94. Florida Atlantic        -5.15    98    92    2-4    5-7
 95. Louisiana-Lafayette     -5.16    93    97    2-3    5-7
 96. Fresno St               -5.24    69   112    1-3    6-6
 97. North Texas             -5.30   102    90    3-3    6-6
 98. Navy                    -5.55   109    87    1-3    3-9
 99. Rice                    -5.81    99    96    3-2    6-6
100. Old Dominion            -6.38   101    98    2-3    3-9
101. Georgia Tech            -6.44    97   102    2-3    2-10
102. Georgia St              -7.03    84   111    1-4    4-8
103. Virginia Tech           -7.23    90   110    2-3    3-9
104. Army                    -7.38    82   114    1-3    5-7
105. Boston College          -7.46    80   116    2-3    3-9
106. Wyoming                 -7.47   115    94    3-3    6-6
107. Central Michigan        -7.63   108    99    1-4    7-5
108. San Diego St            -8.45    88   115    2-3    4-8
109. Utah St                 -8.96   111   103    1-4    4-8
110. Bowling Green           -9.27   112   105    2-3    3-9
111. New Mexico              -9.77   113   106    2-3    6-6
112. Ohio U.                 -9.89   117   101    2-3    4-8
113. Louisiana Tech         -10.14   114   109    1-3    4-8
114. UTEP                   -11.39   103   118    3-3    4-8
115. Western Michigan       -11.85   104   120    1-4    3-9
116. Ball St                -13.38   116   117    3-2    6-6
117. Temple                 -13.49   124   104    2-3    3-9
118. Nevada                 -13.57   120   113    2-3    4-8
119. South Florida          -13.74   107   123    1-4    1-11
120. Louisiana-Monroe       -13.96   123   107    2-3    3-9
121. Colorado               -14.50   118   119    0-5    0-12
122. Eastern Michigan       -15.41   119   121    3-2    4-8
123. Connecticut            -17.50   121   125    2-4    4-8
124. Colorado St            -17.61   122   122    0-4    1-11
125. Texas St-San Marcos    -19.70   127   124    2-3    2-10
126. UNC-Charlotte          -20.50   126   126    1-5    2-10
127. Akron                  -20.84   125   127    1-4    1-11
128. Massachusetts          -27.99   128   128    1-4    2-10
129. New Mexico St          -30.05   129   129    1-5    2-10
130. Hawai`i                -32.73   130   130    1-4    1-12
131. Florida Int'l          -39.28   131   131    2-2    2-10